Skip to comments.Pew: Yup, Romney's Leading in Early Voting
Posted on 11/01/2012 8:20:17 AM PDT by GonzoII
Welcome to November. Earlier in the week, one of the oldest and most respected polling firms in America -- Gallup -- produced results based on thousands of voter contacts indicating that Mitt Romney is leading in national early voting by roughly six percentage points. Last night, another venerable polling outfit confirmed Gallup's findings with a survey of its own. From Pew Research:
The Pew Research Center survey found that the race is even among all likely voters nationwide (47% Obama, 47% Romney). Unlike the last campaign, the race also is close among voters who say they have already voted. In the poll, conducted Oct. 24-28, 19% of likely voters say they have already voted; that is unchanged from the same week in the 2008 campaign (Oct. 23-26, 2008). Currently, Romney holds a seven-point edge among early voters (50% to 43%); because of the small sample, this lead is not statistically significant. At this point four years ago, Obama led John McCain by 19 points (53% to 34%) among early voters.
The overall sample was roughly 1700 voters, only about half the size of Gallup's pool, but resulting in nearly the exact same early voting outcome. In this case, Romney by seven. Gallup found that Obama led McCain by 15 points in early tallies at this stage in 2008; Pew puts the gap at 19 points, so their 2012 numbers represent a 26-point swing to the GOP ticket. That's...not insignificant. But what about in the swing states? The Washington Post reports that Obama has the lead in most (but not all) of the contested battlegrounds, but that Romney is hugely outpacing McCain's 2008 numbers. In brief, Republicans are narrowing the gap in Nevada, North Carolina and Iowa (where one new state poll gives Romney a slight overall lead, while another shows Obama winning). Romney is doing quite well in Colorado, where the GOP is actually leading Democrats, very much unlike last cycle. In Florida, Democrats have a small edge in the early totals, but nowhere near their 2008 levels:
Democrats hold a narrow lead (43 percent to 41 percent) and are not on pace to match their 46-37 advantage from 2008. We are through four days of the eight-day period for in-person early voting, and while Democrats gained big on the first two days (Saturday and Sunday), they were unable to keep that pace on Monday and Tuesday. Democrat netted 73,000 vote from the first two days, but gained 28,000 votes on Monday and just 16,000 votes on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Republicans keep building their absentee lead, which stands at 70,000 votes. While Democrats won the combined early vote (absentee plus in-person) by more than 360,000 votes in 2008, they currently lead by about 49,000. That edge will grow over the next four days as Democrats build their in-person early voting lead (many more people vote in-person than absentee), but it’s unlikely to approach anywhere near 360,000.
The Romney campaign said today that they expect to win Florida's election day voters by double digits. In Virginia, counties that Obama won last time have seen a dramatic drop-off in absentee balloting; absentee "turnout" in Republican areas has slowed a bit, but not as much as Democrat territory. Finally, there's Ohio. Public polling shows Obama with a large lead, but there's no way to verify that. Republicans say the raw numbers don't bear out that big Obama advantage:
“The Gallup numbers nationally confirm what we think is happening here in Ohio,” says one Romney official. “It’s two things. One, their margin of victory in early voting is greatly diminished — drastically diminished. And two, they are having a very difficult time generating enthusiasm among young people.” Asked for evidence to support those claims, the official cited a Romney tally showing absentee and early voting is ten percent higher in counties McCain won in 2008 than in counties Obama won. He also pointed to sluggish early voting in the Toledo area, which Obama won in ’08, and particularly energetic early voting in the Cincinnati area, which McCain won. In addition, the official argues that Republicans are “outperforming our share of voter registration in absentee requests and early votes” and that the GOP has “closed the gap on Democrats’ historical absentee and early vote advantage for 20 of the past 21 days.”
Has that gap closed enough to stem Obama's pre-election day tide and tee up a Romney win at the ballot box day-of? The answer to that question, ladies and gents, may very well determine the 2012 presidential election. One alternate route to 270 for Romney involves Wisconsin, which was tied as of late last week. Then came Marquette's latest poll, which shows Obama ahead by eight -- a seven-point jump in approximately one week. Wisconsin insiders smell a sampling rat. Even so, just when you think Wisconsin may be slipping away (I've heard the opposite from folks on the ground there, by the way), an elected Democrat says this:
Hancock even broke news on that Wisconsin trip, telling voters if the election were to be held right now the president would lose Wisconsin and its coveted 10 electoral votes. ... “We have not turned out the vote early,” Hancock told the newspaper. “The suburbs and rural parts of Wisconsin – the Republican base – are voting. President Obama’s base has yet to go vote. We’ve got to get our people to go vote.”
No, no! False, protests Team Obama. I guess we'll wait and see won't we?
UPDATE - Rasmussen still has the Badger State race knotted at 49 apiece.
Yes, but, minorities and Democrats are going to show up in MASS NUMBERS on their special voting day, WEDNESDAY! Spread the word! Wednesday is D Day for obama voters!
Pew was #2 most accurate poll last week of election in 2008!
I voted early, last Sunday, in Florida, and CAN verify that Holder’s “people” were out in full force. Nice to know their advantage has dropped off some...still, we FLORIDIANS need to get out he the vote!
In this case I hope they still are!
Great, but this is one reason I hate hate hate early voting. Not only is it an open door for RAT fraud but I cannot believe that these early reports don’t influence voter turnout on the real election day.
There is a reason RATS and liberals are the ones who fought for and will die to keep early voting. This is part of “whatever it takes” to them.
Don’t be too sure...I can see some left wing federal judge ORDER certain counties in Ohio to stay open through November 7, until BO can drag his people to the precincts.
When Florida is a landslide, and OH, PA, NH, IA, etc. are called by the networks for Romney early, I expect disheartened and lazy libs on the West Coast to stay home.
That will expand the margin of victory in the popular vote beyond what all these polls say.
Some places are seeing wait times for early voting that exceed 90 minutes.
I’m starting to get excited. I am on the election board, so my workday will begin at 6 am and run through 9:30 or 10:00 pm. It is going to be VERY interesting.
Outside of California, The west coast number of voters is simply not as large as the east coast total.
It doesn’t look likely for Romney to take California (it seldom if ever looks likely for the GOP to take California) but the important factor is that the EAST coast where the Dems have their biggest number of votes may suffer from a greatly reduced turnout which should hurt the Dems more then the GOP.
Not being I them ow about such matters, I have been wondering how it’s known that candidate A is leading candidate B before the votes are counted on Election Day. Any help enlightening me is thanked in advance.
I told friends a month ago that by 10 pm est we’d hear wailing from the usual networks as they try to comprehend just how the result is so different from what they thought it would be.
Gallup and Pew are getting their numbers from their polling. They're compiling stats on who's already voted and who they say they're voting for.
A few others here have displayed some interest in what Intrade was showing with regard to the election.
Just now, I checked and Intrade reveals a 14.6% chance of the Republicans capturing the White House, the Senate, and the House. By over 85%, they don’t see that happening.
In the general election, they show Obama winning by about 66.5% vs 33.5% for Romney.
Looks to me like there’s some money to be made. I’m not inclined to give out so much personal information to participate.
Was just thinking of this yesterday. I think this sucker is going to be called very early on. Then, as you said, the DNCp will feign marvel at what Romney accomplished.
At least if it’s a massive beating, the mentally challenged won’t be able to claim tainted votes to be the deciding factor.
Can’t wait to see the empty park in Chicago, where the Kenyan celebrated with the fawning masses in 2008.
“...Get’n close to the big day!...”
I voted absentee this time. I work in the oil & gas fields and I’m a long way from home. There was no way I could personally get back home to vote and I was not going to be denied. Everyone I work with out here has either voted absentee or is taking time off to travel home just to vote. All of us, myself included, would crawl over broken glass to vote for the American even though he was not my choice in the primaries. I don’t know a single one out here in this business so far that has, or will, vote for the Kenyan. We know our jobs and the production of America’s energy resources depend on the Kenyan’s total defeat. We’re all praying for a complete and re-astounding rout of this Kenyan evil off the backs of the American people.
There's even a rumor going around that the Dem Party machine is going to be handing out free booze and pot on WEDNESDAY outside each polling station.
Yessiree. My wife and contributed to Romney’s lead yesterday here in Texas. Five days and counting!
It is interesting to note that the closer you get to either coast the more democratic the vote tends to be. Wonder what impact this might have on the popular vote, and more importantly, places like PA?
The LARGEST COUNTY in Colorado is El Paso (think Colorado Springs). The vote here in 2008 was won by McCain, 57-39%. This year in early voting (and most have now voted) the GOP-registered voters outnumber the Dems 69-31% (actually 70,615 to 32,951 if you want to figure the precise fractional difference)
Fox is saying democrat turnout is higher so far, in swing states especially. What gives?
Granted, Fox they are just counting registered democrats, not necessarily who they voted for...
Do they tally the votes as they come in, when the state has “early voting”. We have all vote by mail, with a two week voting period, but they don’t actually tally the votes until after the election closes. They do keep a running tab of registered voters with party affiliation and they provide that list to the parties as the ballots are received, so that the parties can hound the voters to return the ballot, but they have no idea if the Democrats actually voted for the Democrat candidate.
That's because in swing states when you vote for Romney, it comes up for Obama.
It’s the Oceans...where the scum meets the sea...
Just curious, does anyone remember what time New Hampshire was called in 2008, or 2004, for that matter? . . Okay, I’m getting a little antsy. : )
That is what I'm praying for. I know that in WV there will be a very large number of Dems voting for Romney.
In Col. I read that the GOP actually beat the Democrat EV.