Current State Of Play [Dose of Dick Morris]

dickmorris.com ^ | November 1, 2012 | Dick Morris

[BlueStateRightist]

Here’s the rundown: • Romney leads in all the states McCain carried in 2008 for 179 electoral votes. • Romney is convincingly ahead in Indiana (10), North Carolina (15), Florida (29), Colorado (9), and Virginia (13) total: 255 needed to win: 270 • Ohio (18): It looks like we are ahead. Rasmussen has us up by two. So do some internal polls. But with the variation in turnout motivation and the undecided going against the incumbent, we should win by more than that. • Iowa (6) Ditto. Latest polls have us one ahead. • NH (4) Rasmussen has us up by two but probably more than that given turnout and undecided voters. • Pennsylvania (20) Our ace in the hole! We are outspending Obama 6:1 here. Partly because of your donations to Super PAC for America (Michael Reagan’s outfit). Give some more! Last night’s poll had us ahead by two in Pennsylvania. If we lose Ohio, Pennsylvania will put us over the top. • Wisconsin (10) Rasmussen has it tied at 49-49. We have a great organization here that won the recall contest against Gov Walker. I bet we win here. Now the focus of a major Romney effort. • Minnesota (10) Believe it or not, coming within range. Just a few points behind and a lot of money going in there this weekend. • Michigan (15) We should be closer here than we are. Lots of new money going in over the weekend, but we have faded a bit here. Overall: Likely a 5-10 pt Romney win and above 300 electoral votes.

[BlueStateRightist]

Here's your daily (or is it twice daily) dose of Dick. Just enough to make you feel better, or worse (if you believe in the Dick Curse).

[comebacknewt]

Oh Dick. I sure hope you aren’t lying to me.

[GoCards]

Im gonna be sick. Just be over and we win!!!!

[Founding Father]

Hard to take him seriously when he doesn’t even know the number of electoral votes the various states have. Hint to Dick: As a result of the 2010 census there was reapportionment of representatives.

[CatOwner]

Well, this can't be right. The MarXist poll has Obama up with a significant lead in Iowa. If this is true, the GOP is screwed.

[Mr Ramsbotham]

Dick sucks toes. Ergo, we lose. (How do you like that, Plato?)

[Combat_Liberalism]

He may be right but Rove is more believable at 51-48. Rove is more reasonable. Dick sure does have enthusiasm. The best contrary indicator is Bob Shrum. He is guaranteeing a win for Obama. There could be no better news for Romney in the entire campaign cycle than that.

[Clump]

I would bet money that the final result will be right in between Rove’s prediction and Dick Morris’s.
I really believe Rove simply because he is an egomaniac above all else and it probably gave him great pain to change his summer prediction of an Obama landslide to a Romney win.
But in having to make the change he really didn’t have any reason to predict a bigger margin than he did.

[Atlas Sneezed]

I buy the 255 easy, except that McCain 2008 + NC FL CO IN VA yields 257 EVs. Then the following:

OH(18)
-or-
PA(20)
-or-
MI(16)
-or-
MN(10) + [NH(4) or IA(6) or NV(6)]
-or-
WI(10) + [NH(4) or IA(6) or NV(6)]
-or-
NH(4) + NV(6) + IA(6)

[boycott]

Good call. Let’s he we pull off at least one of those winning situations.