[SoftwareEngineer]

Commentary by Engineer

Another day, another tie...

However, there are some differences from yesterday as the Governors numbers deteriorated a little bit internally and some of these numbers seem a little SUSPECT

He is up 5 with Independents but behind 10 with women

I am now a bit suspicious of the numbers here. The Governor is getting LESS support from Republicans (87%) than the President is getting from Democrats (89%)

Sounds a bit odd. The “Broken Glass Conservative” effect seems to be not captured here

Also, the President finally cracked the 50% mark in approval. He now stands at 51%. This is definitely post Sandy and post Governor Christie

The Presidential approval index is -8%

The right track/wrong track is 40/54 nationally but 45/45 for Asians/Hispanics

On a mathematical note, the Governor’s raw numbers are still higher than the President, his numbers are closer to 49% but rounding down reduces it to a tie

I heard yesterday that Rasmussen had increased his party breakdown to D+4 instead of the D+2 he was at last weekend.

This is NOT confirmed (as NHWinGut is on sick leave) but if so, that alone explains the 2% shift

As a comparison point, there was a poll out in PA yesterday by a well respected firm that shows the Governor ahead of the President by 4.

Also, there was the massive rally held by the Governor yesterday in OH, which may have pulled in over 35,000 people

I am not going to say that Scott Rasmussen is deliberately skewing this poll. He is WELL RESPECTED and I truly enjoy his polls. However, even the best of us make a mistake now and then.

Yesterday's OH poll by Scott Rasmussen was widely criticized for the Independent numbers. There seems to be an "anomaly" here

I guess on TUE we will find out who was right. This is the MOST difficult election I have ever covered. The polls are everywhere and analyzing the internals is becoming very difficult. Let us count the various problems we are dealing with in all these polls:

• Over sampling of Democrats
• Over sampling of Independents
• Over sampling of Women
• Under sampling of Republicans
• Under sampling of Independents
• Loose likely voter screens
• Small sample sizes

  
  
  72 hours to go!! We are almost there!
  
  More soon! NOTE: Many of these numbers are internal and are not on the link above

[SoftwareEngineer]

Daily RAS Official Thread ping!

[Perdogg]

what is the raw number?

[SoFloFreeper]

Obamugabe at -8¿ Did America suddenly decide it wants Obamacare??

Ugh.

[ilgipper]

I agree at first blus there is something that doesn’t make sense in this week’s trends, why would republican support for Romney suddenly decline. There are countless examples of democrats unenthusiastic or voting Romney, virtually none on the reverse side.

Was hoping to see a tick back up today to 49, but I think the news yesterday was denominated by how bad things have deteriorated in Staten Island and the growing discontent among hurricane victims. Seems crazy that this is somehow helping Obama, other than the fax that it mostly took Romney out of the news cycle completely.

This is going to be the longest four days EVER.

[Lacey2]

I sent the following to Rasmussen from their site:

Dear Sir/Madam,

Several days ago a message appeared on your site saying the daily tracking would continue despite the storm which has had a devastating effect on the tri-State area. The reasoning you gave was the calls being made were coming from areas outside those which were devastated by the storm.

It is my opinion the place from which the calls are made is of little consequence but where they are made TO is what is most important. With power lost to about 10 million people and cell service down across the region (I live in NJ) your polling should have been suspended as was that of Gallup and IBD/TIPP. There is no way a representative number said to comprise the opinion of a nation can be accurate when such a huge number of people are either unavailable or not disposed to answer a pollster coherently in the midst of a tragedy.

Gallup has resumed their polling but with the explanation the results will be carefully screened to determine accuracy possibly influenced by the storm. They seem to be saying they may not even report the results on Monday the 5th of November or if they do it will be with a strong caveat.

I would like to see Rasmussen (suspend or qualify the results) do the same because as you know a polling result can have a real affect on turnout and should it be incorrect the result could be harmful to the candidate on the wrong end of the horse race number.

Regards,

[sunmars]

Yes, i suspected Rasmussen increased his D sample, maybe because of the storm as he is not operationg out of NJ at present, i think all his polls are whacky at present, he’s basically putting everything at a tie.

[PatrickHaggerty]

What concerns me most is the approval rating increase in these final days.

Anyone know when Gallup is releasing its final number?

[Kahuna]

Other than elections with viable third party candidates does anyone out there remember an incumbent at 48% 3 days prior to the election winning?

[VanDeKoik]

So I suppose this is going to be the 8 hour home to the concern trolls. Well lets get their standard boo hoo replies out of the way...



UGH
CRAP
< WE ARE LOST
I CANT BELIEVE PEOPLE LOVE OBAMA
IM GOING TO CRY
AMERICA IS DOOMED
ITS ALL THE PEOPLE ON WELFARE

Blah blah blah.

While the actual candidates are using time and resources to get people to the polls, FR has to deal with a weekend of these people flooding every discussion with their nonsense.

This weekend is about getting pumped, not weeping over poll A or B because they are not driving events now, they are there for entertainment, and apparently to provide really unstable people a reason to waste our time on FR whining about it.

[JPG]

Thanks for your reporting and analysis. It is appreciated.

[FlipWilson]

Sitting in no power, no gas, NJ right now. Sandy + 6 and we have had an Obama photo op and praise for said photo op from Gov Tub. We have had nothing else. People who were good natured and affable are now mad as hell. They are openly wondering what the truck President photo op was talking about when he said that we would get whatever we need. As te anger increases, look for a fade for President photo op.

[C210N]

I am not going to say that Scott Rasmussen is deliberately skewing this poll...

No, he wouldn't skew. He uses a special sauce.

[ShovelThemOut]

Calm down, Freepers. Take a Xanax, and stop looking at polls. Keep in mind:

1. They told us the Wisconsin Recall was TOO CLOSE TO CALL on the day of that election.

2. We were told Kerry had a lead in OH of 5 points days before the 2004 election. Bush won OH.

3. Not one single pollster predicted the republican TIDAL WAVE of 2010. Not a single one.

4. Romney/Ryan are filling up HUGE stadiums and Zero’s people are having to change to smaller venues so there can’t be photos of massive empty seats.

5. Ask yourself this: Forget about R or D. Suppose Candidate A is an incumbent president who can’t get to 50% in the polls. The people who enthusiastically turned out for him before are going to either switch sides or stay home in significant numbers (youth vote, women, Jews, Catholics). Candidate A cannot run on his disastrous record, and so the entire campaign strategy has been to depict his opponent as an evil person and accuse him of being a lying murderer. The crowds at events for Candidate A look dejected and desperate. Even though the press is trying fervently to cover for Candidate A, the public saw with their own eyes and ears how Candidate A blamed a video for a terrorist attack and the public knows that to be a blatant lie.

Candidate B had the entire lame-stream press against him, yet he handily won the first debate and people saw that he is not the person demonized by his opponent. Candidate B has run an upbeat campaign and has talked about the issues. Candidate B has a business record to run on. Candidate B has been at 50% to 51% in the polls (with a minor blip due to slobbering hurricane press coverage of Candidate A). Candidate B has won back the women’s vote from what it was at the last election. The independents are favoring Candidate B. The enthusiasm for Candidate B is at record levels.

So, forgetting R or D, with three days left to go, which campaign would you want to be a part of?

[gusopol3]

Obama won’t have positive headlines on drive time radio this Monday and Tuesday as he did last week. AP may be able to bury how bad things are on Staten Island, but they won’t be able to manufacture “Savior of the World” headlines.

[TonyInOhio]

I think Rasmussen's (and other national polls) are being overweighted based on the number of respondents who say they have voted early, when state data clearly indicates they have not. Yesterday's Ohio poll was a good example - it showed 40% or respondents had voted early, yet the actual early turnout (absentee and early) has only been about 29%. The early vote in Ohio has more Democrats represented (as they have been aggressively campaigning for early votes), so if you start with a Likely Voter screen that is inaccurate and weight it more towards the Democrats, you wind up with a signifcant error in the final number.

BTW, I would add that the early numbers from Ohio are looking very good for Romney. :)

[Numbers Guy]

I think the key thing is that these are randon samples, there is a margin of error, even in the internals, and the small fluctuations in the internals are simply random. It’s going to be close.

[ScottinVA]

It`s all about turnout. We have sufficient numbers to turn back the darkside if we want it badly enough to vote in record numbers.

So, conservatives, GOPers, patriots across America.. do we want freedom or Obama?

[zaker99]

What happened to the “Daily Swingstate Tracking Poll?” Is it still being published? It was the one that used a seven day rolling average.

[Crucial]

Looking at the electoral map, the South is solidly in Romney’s column. It looks like to me that he’ll get more than half of the swing states this election. I don’t think it’s a stretch that he’ll win Virginia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania and he’ll probably pick up Colorado. I think Obama’s in big trouble.

[ScaniaBoy]

A short story from a little country in the far north.

Some ten years ago the citizens in that small country were going to vote in a referendum. Their political leaders as well as the big industralists and the union bosses wanted them to change their old currency for the new shining Euro. For a number of reasons they felt that the people should make that decision themselves (as long as they said YES)!

But after a campaign that lasted almost a year, less than a week before the election day the NO had the lead in almost every poll with something between 10 - 15%.

Then tragedy struck. Four days before the referendum the Minister of Foreign Affairs who had been one of the leding voices for the YES campaign, was stabbed to death when out shopping for clothes to wear during the last TV debate.

The campaign was stalled. The debate was cancelled. Instead the media (including the state run TV) was filled with eulogies for the young woman and her political career, not least the wonderful job she had done during the referendum campaign. On Saturday there was a memorial cermony at one of the main squares in the capital, with the Prime Minister delivering and eulogy to his former FM. This was of course also broadcast.

During this period five national polls were conducted. Three of those showed a very sudden tightening of the race - actually those three, Gallup included, showed that the YES had caught up with the NO and it was a 50/50 race.

The next day was polling day. The result stood clear early that evening. The NO:s had won an overwhelming victory, with the same figures the polls had predicted before the murder.

So, in this small country a catastrophic event did not affect the vote despite what some people told the pollsters.

KEEP CALM AND CARRY ON!

GOTV!!!