Skip to comments.Obama Gains Edge in Campaign's Final Days Obama 50% Romney 47%(PEW LV 0 48% R 45%; D+6; Female+8)
Posted on 11/04/2012 1:13:19 PM PST by Red Steel
Barack Obama has edged ahead of Mitt Romney in the final days of the presidential campaign. In the Pew Research Centers election weekend survey, Obama holds a 48% to 45% lead over Romney among likely voters.
The survey finds that Obama maintains his modest lead when the probable decisions of undecided voters are taken into account. Our final estimate of the national popular vote is Obama 50% and Romney 47%, when the undecided vote is allocated between the two candidates based on several indicators and opinion
(Excerpt) Read more at people-press.org ...
See complete report here:
So hurricanes and “appearing presidential” trumps the economy and jobs? This country is REALLY Fluked up.
Don’t believe this one - D+6 oversampled?
Not going to happen. If Pew is right, an Obama victory would be the best-kept secret of the year!
but the internals are skewed as usual for Ds.
Are they in for a big surprise. Early voting numbers for Ohio is an early indicator that the Dems are in trouble.
Is this an ONLINE poll?
D+6? Can’t imagine it. Hope I’m right.
Yeah, right. We'll see what the polls say on Tuesday.
for D +6.3%
This election is going to give me eye-rolling muscles of steel
Oh please! You don't really believe these Fluked up polls, do you? D+6???
Every one else is projecting D+2.
Gallup projects R+2.
I don’t see the Obama enthusiasm out there.
Only problem is since Wednesday people are not to thrilled with how Obama and others have handled Sandys aftermath. They should have waited for tomorrows numbers. Anyhow I don’t believe Obama hits 50% nationally. I’m predicting 51 R to 47 Obama.
Yup, If people really decided to vote for Obama because
he took a photo op after a hurricane... Then we were doomed no matter what because that’s just absurd. The culture is essentially dead as people now are guides by manipulated media images and facades instead of their own reason (see the results of the past 4 years).
Where is this info in this Pew Sample?
for D +6.3%
Where is this info?
Assuming we don’t get a tie Tuesday night one side will be stringing their analysts up to dry and their delusions as well. I just think this: if PA and MI, WI etc are super close, practically tied, then we’re in for a much different night than 2008.
I found this interesting. Maybe explains why the national #s are trending a bit Obama, while swing states tighten up?
“Another notable gain for Obama, perhaps reflecting Hurricane Sandys effect on the race, comes in a region he was already secure in: the Northeast. He has increased his lead over Romney from nine points (52%-43%) to 21 points (56%-35%) there over just the past week.”
Ok, what concerns me is that Pew has been very accurate in the past 2 presidential elections. Yes, we hope they are wrong. But we must also face the fact that they could be right. Maybe this country is so screwed up already that a Hurricane and a few photo ops could trump everything else. If that is the case, this country is already lost.
Human beings are what they are. It is easy to fool them. It will ALWAYS be easy to fool them. The hurricane provided a significant bump to Obama. We may remember Sandy not for the wind and rain damage to the north east, but the 4 more years of damage to this nation it caused by boosting Obama at the last minute and allowing him to be re-elected.
It’s in the .pdf document from Pew itself linked in the first post :)
Way more internal stuff in there than you’d ever want to slog through.
After this blows up on them , in 2016 every state run polling org swill lower the expected outrun for the incumbent as that’s what was wrong in 2012.
To the left it’s always style over substance, form over function.
Was hoping to see better, but it is all down to turnout now.
Is this an ONLINE poll?
Look at my post #18 above, from the linked poll. The “Sandy bounce” is all in the northeast!
“Voter turnout, which may be lower than in 2008 and 2004, remains one of Romneys strengths. Romneys supporters continue to be more engaged in the election and interested in election news than Obama supporters, and are more committed to voting.”
I think the voter turnout will be bigger.
Dude, lots of people have been very “accurate” over the years.
You cannot manufacture being right with polls. You just might get it right or not.
Zogby was once the “best”, now he is on the bottom.
Here is the sampling error:
“Respondents were selected from randomly called landlines by asking for the youngest adult at home at that time.”
No problem. I didn’t see them laying out percentages, so I just calculated them myself. I could’ve missed them easily because I skimmed the thing pretty fast lol
“About the Survey
The analysis in this report is based on telephone interviews conducted October 31-November 3, 2012, among a national sample of 3,815 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia (2,262 respondents were interviewed on a landline telephone, and 1,553 were interviewed on a cell phone, including 784 who had no landline telephone). Data collection was managed by Princeton Survey Research Associates International and conducted by interviewers at Princeton Data Source and Abt SRBI.
A combination of landline and cell phone random digit dial samples were used; both samples were provided by Survey Sampling International. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Respondents in the landline sample were selected by randomly asking for the youngest adult male or female who is now at home. Interviews in the cell sample were conducted with the person who answered the phone, if that person was an adult 18 years of age or older. For detailed information about our survey
methodology, see http://people-press.org/methodology/
Below is the robo call transcript. Governor Palin was asked to record a robo call for the Gov Romney campaign. (I think this was recorded last week dont know for sure.)
Hello, this is Sarah Palin calling to urge you to go to the polls on Election Day, or better yet, vote early. We have a critical choice to make this year and America needs leaders who believe in limited government, individual liberty, a robust national defense, stronger families, the sanctity of life and marriage, and time-honored values. Our nation is at a crossroads. So please go to the polls and vote for the candidates who share your common-sense values. Urge your friends and family to vote, too. Thank you and God bless you!
I look at this website every day to keep my sanity.
The data isn’t reliable.
And its a reminder this election is about turnout.
I wouldn’t worry about Pew and their funny partisan ID game here.
I think we are down to hoping that a lot of people who say they are going to vote for Obama just don't bother to go to the polls. I think the energy is on our side, unfortunately the sheer number of ignorant sheep favor the Democrats. Realize that if all American adults voted Obama would win in a crushing landslide. Even if just registered voters cast ballots Obama would win decisively. We are counting on huge numbers of the urban dependent class and young mushheads to stay home. This is why the Democrats always push early voting and Republicans usually try to limit it. It gives the left more time to get their low information base voters to the polls.
As best I know Pew is a fairly accurate pollster. We just have to hope they get it wrong this time.
Yup, If people really decided to vote for Obama because
he took a photo op after a hurricane... Then we were doomed no matter what because thats just absurd. The culture is essentially dead as people now are guides by manipulated media images and facades instead of their own reason (see the results of the past 4 years).
You hit the nail on the head. If our culture will vote to reelect this fiscal pariah on the basis of photo ops then we are doomed. There is not one sound reason an intelligent voter should vote for him. Just suck it in and learn the Greek national anthem!
This kind of wishful thinking, bunker mentality was our downfall in 2008. I don't think it is prudent to disregard Pew - it was one of the most accurate polls from 2008.
It seems clear that Romney will need some special boost to overcome what seems like a comfortable victory scenario for 0.
Lets not fool ourselves - 0 is ahead and winning at this point. Romney's options are narrowing. He could still pull it off, but it will be very difficult...
I just love that 47 number for obama in the unskewed polls. Kind of prophetic, isn’t it?
That’s right and Pew has been something like plus 13 dems all season long
The only serious excitement I've seen over obama has been over at DUmmy land. Most of the media coverage is stretching everything in order to paint a better picture than what really exists for obama.
I don't think I'm willing to make ANY prediction... but I see little obama support in my own little circle of the country (Indiana).
the whole howard dean incident prompted me to completely ignore polls of any kind since then.
I keep my head on straight, politely correct misinformation and lies when I can, then I go vote and hope for a positive outcome.
Experience has shown me that conservative voters aren't nearly as vocal and outspoken and liberals. Sure, we have our own outspoken groups, but nothing nearly on the scale of the modern whining liberal. Conservatives are more prone to quietly observe and vote the same way... that's why I don't think I can ever weigh any poll seriously. There is always that silent mass of conservatives out there and I hope they always stay informed and vote based on actual facts instead of all the campaign BS and hitjobs.
Unfortunately, this is going to be a close election and it is not going to be decided by any facts OR character, it's going to be decided by turnout. Hell, obama could come out and declare that he is in fact a card-carrying member of NAMBLA and the Nazi party and his voter base wouldn't shrink by even one.
A poll of ADULTS 2 DAYS OUT... man these rats are desperate for the BIG MO THAT THEY DO NOT HAVE!
If you think that its really D+6, Pew might be right.
No one else thinks its going to be that high.
And if you judge how the campaigns are performing, the edge goes to Romney.
Sure, Pew had an enviable track record in the past but this poll is way off.
If you buy into the assumption this is 2008 all over again, then of course Obama wins.
I just think the data is bad on this one and its an outlier. All the other polls show the race tied and O is under 50% in them.
I feel this is a silly question, but what is the rationale behind asking (landline respondents) for the “youngest adult” at home?
PU must have had a spare bottle of Zogby sauce stored in the pantry for this one.
Dims love to sway elections by showing their candidate breaking at the end.
I didn't read the article so thanks for pointing that out. There is no honest polling anymore.