Posted on 11/04/2012 6:12:24 PM PST by ex-Libertarian
The votes are in!
Early and absentee voting is now complete in Nevada, giving us the most complete hard data set to date on the real status of the election.
Nevada does not appear on any of the "Romney paths to victory" laid out by pundits, and few seem to believe that Nevada is really in play. Frankly we don't need Nevada to win this election.
I did this analysis not so much to understand Nevada in particular, but to try to make sense of the massive disconnect we are seeing in polls this year. So while this analysis is interesting as it relates to Romney prospects in Nevada specifically, it's much MORE interesting as an early indicator of where this election really stands nationwide.
Put simply, if Romney is winning in Nevada or is even close, Axelrod's playbook is out the window, along with the polling methodologies of Marist, PPP and all the rest.
Anyway, I believe the EV/AB results unequivocally prove that Nevada is very much IN play. Here's why...
BACKGROUND
As all poll junkies know too well, two sets of numbers comprise the results of any election: 1) Partisan Turnout (the partisan breakdown of people who actually vote - D/R/I) and 2) Partisan Voting Preference (the % of Dems, Reps and Inds who vote D, R and I respectively).
So, for example, suppose we have a 34D/30R/36I electorate. Further suppose that Dems and Reps both vote 90/10 for their candidate, and that the Inds split 55/45 for the Dem. Final results would be:
Dem = (34%x90%)+(30x10%)+(36*55%) = 53.4%
Rep = (30%x90%)+(34x10%)+(36*45%) = 46.6%
Now, the above numbers are NOT what we're seeing in Nevada - this is just an example to demonstrate the math.
Below is the analysis of what we're actually seeing in Nevada...
DATA - Partisan Turnout
Partisan Turnout is by far the most subject to pollster assumptions and bias, and is the source of most polling controversy. The good news is that Nevada early voting gives us hard data as to what the likely changes will be in Partisan turnout from 2008 to 2012.
Specifically, we know that 2008 Partisan Turnout was 38D/30R/32I. We also know that EV/AB Partisan Turnout in Clarke and Washoe counties moved from 49.5D/34.1R/16.4I in 2008 to 43.9D/34.7R/19.2I in 2012. This is not speculation or an estimate - this is hard data.
I use Washoe and Clark because they are the only two counties for which I could find both 2008 and 2012 hard, complete data, and because together they account for well over 80% of the Nevada vote. Yes, it's true that together these counties are heavily Dem, but what's important for this analysis is the CHANGE in Partisan Turnout and not the absolute numbers. The change in the Washoe and Clark Partisan Turnout should be reflective of the change in the Partisan turnout for Nevada overall.
Given the above assumptions, the Partisan turnout should move from 38/D/30R/32I in 2008 to 35D/30R/37I in 2012. Nothing shocking or mind-blowing here, and it makes intuitive sense. But it's very different from what we see in most polls.
In reality, I think this analysis understates the eventual Republican turnout, simply because so much more of the Dem effort has been focused on improving their EV/AB performance, whereas Republicans have been focused on election day turnout and in EV of "low propensity" voters.
So 35D/30R/37I is a very conservative projection for Partisan turnout - if anything it may be slightly more Republican and Independent than this.
DATA - Partisan Voting Preference
In 2008, Nevada Republicans went 88% McCain, 11% Obama and 1% Other. At the same time, Nevada Dems voted 93% for Obama, 6% for McCain and 1% Other. Independents broke 54% for Obama, 41% for McCain and 5% Other.
2012 Partisan Voting Preferences are looking very different however. Even in polls that have Obama winning Nevada handily, all but one (ARG) show Romney winning Independents, and all but one (PPP) show Romney holding a higher % of Republicans than Obama does of Democrats.
To come up with a 2012 Partisan Voter Preference, I averaged together the numbers from the only four recent public polls which disclose Party ID cross-tabs (PPP, LVRJ, Gravis and ARG). Results are as follows:
* Democrats: 88% Obama, 9% Romney, 2% Other
* Republicans: 9% Obama, 90% Romney, 1% Other
* Independents: 42% Obama, 53% Romney, 5% Other
ANALYSIS
Multiplying out the above Partisan Turnout figures with these Partisan Voting Preferences yields a final vote tally of:
* Romney - 50.41%
* Obama - 49.30%
In summary, with the Partisan Turnout we are seeing, Romney needs to only do two things to win Nevada: 1) Win Independents by 9% or more (which 2 of the 4 polls show him doing), and 2) Win the same or better % of Republicans as Obama wins of Democrats (which 3 of the 4 polls show him doing)
Clearly Nevada is on a knife's edge. But if Nevada - which Obama won by over 12% in 2008 - is on a knife's edge, Tuesday will be a very sad day in Chicago.
D’s won early voting in Washoe by 12 points in 2008. In 2012 R’s have a small lead in Washoe. Thats a big swing in EV by party.
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