Posted on 11/05/2012 9:22:53 AM PST by nhwingut
Oct 2012: Republican: 39.1% Democrat: 33.3% Other: 27.5% (R+5.8%)
Sep 2012: Republican: 36.8% Democrat: 34.2% Other: 29.0% (R+2.6%)
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
To all those who would dismiss this information as being irrelevant or not an indication of who shows up to vote, and how they vote, I would simply point you to the PDF at the site showing the electorate in October 2008. It was dead on. And the result was as well.
Why he is deviating from this for current polling vs. sticking to it like 2008 is an interesting question. I don’t doubt that concern about the proletarian Obama regime pressure could be playing a role.
Right, we don’t know if they will show up voting for Rs on election day.
For historical perspective over the last decade, and since Ras in his party affiliation polls, more of the electorate have identified themselves as Dems until recent year(s). Ras would show D+5 in a typical example.
The signs are aligning showing a blowout for Romney over Obama. :-)
I wouldn't buy that with your money. There is just NO way that Obama is going to get 12% of the Republican vote. Either Scott didn't really make that claim, or he's completely off his rocker.
What was this in 2008, 2004?
I have felt it would be minimally R+3/4 Ras saying +6 can believe that..
What I don’t get though is how he says its R+6 but the overall election is 1 point... I just don’t get it.
2008 was D+7 with Independents breaking hard for O, and its 52-46 O win..
Yet here in 2012 we are looking at R+6 and Independents breaking big time for Romney and O is facing the loss of 10%+ of his base in the Blue Dogs who are not going to vote for him, Yet its a 1 point election??
Just don’t get Ras’s overall numbers.
Well IF this is correct Romney will win by double digits. When you aggregate all the national polls (which include 30k+ respondents) the numbers break as follows:
Dems: O 91.2%, R 7.6%, U/O 1.2%
Reps: O4.7%, R 94.5%, U/O 0.8%
Indies: O 38.1%, R 47.7%, U/O 14.2%
If we allocate 6% of the indies to the third party candidates, Have the undecided break 70/30 to Romney, and apply the Ras party affiliation model the election would turn out as follows:
Romney 54.7%
Obama 43.6%
Third party 1.7%
This sort of total blowout would of course have some other benefits, The Senate races would break R, and the Lib lackey’s in the MSM would be totally discredited.
Amazed that Ras is using a +3% D model in his samples.
I understand. The question is why aren’t more honest people coming forward to point out the inherent contradiction in the polls?
How do you assume a turnout advantage for Democrats when it seems to depend on something like party affiliation x intensity which both seem to favor Republicans. It seems beyond ridiculous.
It seems that Ras does not use his Party Id number to weight his polling data. Here is an explanation of what Rasmussen does:
http://rkayn.blogspot.com/2012/10/even-rasmussen-is-skewed-toward.html
Even if there is a Romney landslide there are lawyers already in place to question and fight every result if it doesn’t favor Obama.
The Dems have convinced their followers that the Republicans are engineering massive voter fraud. They feel the last election was stolen in Florida and they plan to tie up the election in the courts any way they can.
The likelihood of 12% GOP voters going to Obama is slim to none (and I’m going with none). Stick with the 93%-95% GOP number. In 2008, only 7% of GOP voters went to Obama. Is there any reason to think that Obama is going to attract more GOP voters than last time? Even the LSM pollsters have over 90% for the GOP-Romney base.
Well IF this is correct Romney will win by double digits. When you aggregate all the national polls (which include 30k+ respondents) the numbers break as follows:
Dems: O 91.2%, R 7.6%, U/O 1.2%
Reps: O4.7%, R 94.5%, U/O 0.8%
Indies: O 38.1%, R 47.7%, U/O 14.2%
If we allocate 6% of the indies to the third party candidates, Have the undecided break 70/30 to Romney, and apply the Ras party affiliation model the election would turn out as follows:
Romney 54.7%
Obama 43.6%
Third party 1.7%
This sort of total blowout would of course have some other benefits, The Senate races would break R, and the Lib lackey’s in the MSM would be totally discredited.
Amazed that Ras is using a +3% D model in his samples.
“Rasmussen says 12% of Republicans claim they are voting for Obama.”
I bet 1/2 of them are Democrats and liberal indie Obuggery sympathizers who lied that they were GOP voters.
We will be playing this song on tues night , Landslide:
Sorry about the multiple posts, when I hit the post key it keeps telling me it couldn’t connect the server appears to be severely overloaded.
Going back to 2004: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation
RUSH is all over this today!!
Here is the info we’ve all known - and why the polls using D+4 are way off.
Boom.
It tells you how partisan the Dem media and their Dem pollsters are by trying to pull Obama over the finish line.
They are determined to always show D+ forever to keep Obama in the lead or tied, which are truly moving numbers depending how their polls go LoL.
In Ras’s case, He’s using a weighted D+3 [a benchmark] or something like it since the beginning of this election, and he ignores what his polls are now saying about party affiliation from month to month. I suppose Ras will switch his weighted numbers for future elections after this election according to the exit pollsters.
Is this showing a swing from -7.6% in November 2008 to 5.8% now, a 13.4% swing? My goodness!
I’ve been a repeat of 1980 for a while.
The MSM demonized Reagan.
Carter lead until the debates.
When people saw Reagan in the debates, they realized the MSM portrayal of Reagan was wrong, and that it would be OK to vote for Reagan. The tide stared turning.
A couple of days before the election, Carter’s support evaporated as people—when faced with finally having to make a decision—decided the country couldn’t survive 4 more years of Carter.
Reagan won in a landslide.
I believe the same cycle is working in the Obama/Romney race. Now that voters are faced with making a decision, they are deciding that the country can’t take 4 more years of Obama.
Romney will win in a landslide.
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