OK, very good. So the next obvious question is why aren’t we seeing this in his daily polling results?
I can think of two reasons:
Ras follows the herd like the rest of them and he thinks Republican voters won’t turn out like that.
But if he is wrong, its very good news for America!
He’s hedging his bets. He was getting pounded by other pollsters when he was sowing D+3 to D+5 when they were going higher than the 2008 turnout so he’s played it safe.
bttt
It seems that Ras does not use his Party Id number to weight his polling data. Here is an explanation of what Rasmussen does:
http://rkayn.blogspot.com/2012/10/even-rasmussen-is-skewed-toward.html
Because they can’t believ it themselves. In hindsight, folks will point to the debates, including the vp debate. The contrast was huge, and Americans liked the human element of Romney Ryan. Take it to the bank.