Posted on 11/12/2012 8:58:45 AM PST by SeekAndFind
APIn Ryan Lizza's story in this week's The New Yorker, Texas' newly-elected Republican Senator Ted Cruz worries about the changing electoral landscape --- and how it could get even less favorable for the GOP in coming years.
Cruz provides what must be a truly terrifying thought for the Republican Party:
"In not too many years, Texas could switch from being all Republican to all Democrat," he said. "If that happens, no Republican will ever again win the White House. New York and California are for the foreseeable future unalterably Democrat. If Texas turns bright blue, the Electoral College math is simple. We won't be talking about Ohio, we won't be talking about Florida or Virginia, because it won't matter. If Texas is bright blue, you can’t get to two-seventy electoral votes. The Republican Party would cease to exist. We would become like the Whig Party. Our kids and grandkids would study how this used to be a national political party. ‘They had Conventions, they nominated Presidential candidates. They don’t exist anymore.’”
Mitt Romney already faced a tough road to the White House through the electoral map this year, and the country's shifting demographics make the map an even bigger problem for the Republican Party in future elections.
Some Democrats think that Texas and Arizona could be the next to become swing states, and there were signs of a future Democratic invasion into these Southwestern states during the 2012 campaign, including San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro's keynote speech at the Democratic National Convention.
Cruz is right: Without Texas' 38 electoral votes, it would be virtually impossible for Republicans to win a presidential election. There is simply not a corresponding state that Republicans are targeting to go from blue to red.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
Back then Democrats were more conservative than Republicans.
I heard Scott Rasmussen on the radio this morning and said that roughly the same amount of blacks voted in 2012 as in 2008, and that Hispanic voter turnout was only slightly higher (1-2%) -BUT the White Voter turnout overall was
7 Million less in 2012 than in 2008 (99 Million in 2008 and 92 Million in 2012).
He said demographics haven’t changed at all that much, but White voters stayed home.
There may be Kalifornians in and around Travis County, but I rarely run into them in the eastern half of the state, except maybe The Woodlands. And the ones that I do, typically are conservatives. Now, Albuquerque is a totally different story. They are what has made that state blue. It has been proven in every national election going back to the 1800’s that voters nine times out of ten vote for whomever promises to put the most jingle in their pocket book, whether it actually happens or not. That is why “conservative” states like North Dakota and Montana vote for democratic senators. Farm subsidies.
Cruz cannot do it alone. One problem we have is that when Hispanic conservatives offer solutions, it is immediately labeled “amnesty”, even if it isn’t.
The best way around this is to FORCE any legislative solution to NOT be seen as a victory for Obama...either make it (ugh) bipartisan, OR—better—as an enforcement/path to legitimacy deal that Obama begrudgingly signs.
What’s missing from all these “projections” is the number of those who will stop voting Demonrat once the economy hits the dumpster. I’m sorry it is coming to that of course, but it will take a major economic, natural or terrorist catastrophe to wake enough people up.
Sooner or later the left wing’s policies catch up with the naive. Once that happens there will be a major shift away, especially Anglos and Asians as they have the most to lose. It will happen, just a matter of time as to when.
Interesting - he knows a lot more about demographics than I do.
But if I look at 2.5 million people dying every year (who mostly vote R) and being replaced by folks who mostly vote D, it’s an uphill battle.
“TX will go blue within the next 4 to 6 years due to the influx of libs”
Like a cancer, libs flee what they have created, and go on to infest their next state.
Go into any Walmart or Lowe’s at any time of day and I will guarantee you that the majority of people are young, Spanish-speaking families with two kids in the shopping cart and one on the way. Except maybe in Highland Park... Once granted amnesty,they have no reason to vote for a republican when the socialist party is offering gifts from Santa Claus year round.
Send “scouts” to red county blue states and offer incentives and perks to move to Texas.
The majority of those counties along the border only have a few thousand people in them. The big numbers are in Harris, Dallas, Bexar, Travis, Cameron, and Hidalgo Counties. Just like all of the blue states, the rural areas and suburbs are red and the urban squallor votes blue.
Oops, I forgot El Paso.
That hasn't stopped Democrats from continuing to vote in Democrats with overwhelming majorities year in and year out
Too many Conservatives are still under the delusion, that if we could only find someone who can articulate our position well Hispainics and even Blacks will see the error of their ways and vote Republican.
It's Never going to happen. Freedom, Liberty, the Constitution are meaningless terms to them. La Raza and what they can get from YT are all that matters.
Even if we somehow win in 2014 & 2016 it still won't matter. The only answer is war or extinction I am afraid
I was actually surprised when I heard him say this, I looked on his site for a realting article, but nothing yet.
Wht do you think that mostly R’s are dying each year, I would image it would be the same breakdown as the rest of the country.
I always say they are like locusts to move on to new green pastures after ravishing the last one they were at.
Then how do you explain the republican trend in the states? In 2010, republicans were voted in by the hundreds in state legislatures and effectively controlled 26 states. In 2012, that number went to 30 states. In these states, democrats are losing state-wide elections all across the nation.
America requires a moral electorate. We are no longer a moral nation. This is why America is doomed to fall.
If 9/11/01 didn’t happen, Bush would have gotten amnesty through. His pow wows with Fox were put on the back burner.
That’s okay, we have Jeb and a handsome new baby Bush all ready to roll. Rove will spend all his PAC money on baby Bush in Texas and later Jeb for 2016.
The Bush clan and Rove will help finish the Republican party off. Rove will also cause a split in the Republican party in Texas pushing another Bush on us. This will give Texas a democrat Governor.
The nation’s immigrant population (legal and illegal) reached 40 million in 2010, the highest number in our history. The U.S. immigrant population has doubled since 1990, nearly tripled since 1980, and quadrupled since 1970, when it stood at 9.7 million. Of the 40 million immigrants in the country in 2010, 13.9 million arrived in 2000 or later making it the highest decade of immigration in American history, even though there was a net loss of jobs during the decade. Growth in the immigrant population has primarily been driven by high levels of legal immigration. Roughly three-fourths of immigrants in the country are here legally. With nearly 12 million immigrants, Mexico was by far the top immigrant-sending country, accounting for 29 percent of all immigrants and 29 percent of growth in the immigrant population from 2000 to 2010. The median age of immigrants in 2010 was 41.4 compared to 35.9 for natives.
The U.S. adds one international migrant (net) every 36 seconds. Immigrants account for one in 8 U.S. residents, the highest level in more than 90 years. In 1970 it was one in 21; in 1980 it was one in 16; and in 1990 it was one in 13. In a decade, it will be one in 7, the highest it has been in our history. And by 2050, one in 5 residents of the U.S. will be foreign-born. Currently, 1.6 million legal and illegal immigrants settle in the country each year; 350,000 immigrants leave each year, resulting in a net immigration of 1.25 million. Since 1970, the U.S. population has increased from 203 million to 310 million, i.e., over 100 million.
In the next 40 years, the population will increase by an additional 130 million to 440 million. Three-quarters of the increase in our population since 1970 and the projected increase will be the result of immigration. The U.S., the world’s third most populous nation, has the highest annual rate of population growth of any developed country in the world, i.e., 0.963% (2011 estimate,) principally due to immigration.
87 percent of the 1.2 million legal immigrants entering annually are minorities as defined by the U.S. Government and almost all of the illegal aliens are minorities. By 2019 half of the children 18 and under in the U.S. will be classified as minorities and by 2042, half of the residents of this country will be minorities. Generally, immigrants and minorities vote predominantly for the Democrat Party. Hence, Democrats view immigration as a never-ending source of voters that will make them the permanent majority party.
Now the solution appears to embrace amnesty as a way of getting more minority and immigrant votes. The exact opposite will happen as it will increase Dem voters and lose more of the GOP base who will be upset about such a move.
57% of immigrant headed households with children are on welfare. Hispanics have an out of wedlock birthrate of 50%. They have the highest school drop out rate of any group. They are a natural Dem constituency.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.