Skip to comments.A Post-Election Flood of Economic Revisions (unemployment up, manufacturing down)
Posted on 11/15/2012 12:53:15 PM PST by NYer
RUSH: Surprise, surprise, surprise: "Factory activity in the US mid-Atlantic region unexpectedly contracted in November." Isn't it amazing all of the revision we get, particularly in economic news, after the election? Factory activity contracts. Who coulda seen that coming? See, we were told the economy was back. In fact, the post-election analysis was that the reason why Romney's economic message really fell on deaf ears toward the end of the campaign was that the economy's back, everybody knew it. Jobs are being created, the unemployment rate was moderating, and the American people felt good about the direction the country was going, and Romney didn't account for it. So that's yesterday's analysis, economy coming back.
Well, factory activity has contracted. And jobless claims are up 78,000 the week after the election. "The Department of Labor has announced that new jobless claims rose by a staggering 78,000 in the first week after the election, reaching a seasonally-adjusted total of 439,000." Just yesterday -- that's why I mention this -- just yesterday the Drive-Bys were telling us that one of the reasons the Romney campaign petered out is because the economy was roaring back. Well, they didn't say roaring back, but they said everybody got the sense we're coming back, man, we got jobs being created, people think the country's headed in the right direction, unemployment number. California did get their numbers in on time, but, let's see, Hawaii, Oregon, a couple other states didn't, so they guessed. Two or three states didn't get their numbers in on time so they guessed.
The highest numbers -- are you ready for this? Here we have jobless claims up 78,000 the week after election, the highest number of new claims for unemployment came from -- dadelut dadelut dadelut dadelut dadelut -- Pennsylvania and Ohio, "where there were thousands of layoffs in the construction, manufacturing, and automobile industries." But none of this was known until yesterday. Actually, this morning is when it was released. None of this was known until after the election. That's right.
"Over the past year, and in the weeks leading up to the election, jobless claims were said to be declining, dipping as low as 339,000, with the media proclaiming that they had reached the 'lowest level in more than four years.' Now, suddenly, the news seems far less rosy. From the Department of Labor press release this morning: In the week ending November 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 439,000, an increase of 78,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 361,000. The 4-week moving average was 383,750. ... Some of the new claims, especially in New Jersey, were due to Hurricane Sandy--but these were offset by a decline in claims filed in New York."
How's that possible? There were fewer claims for unemployment in New York after Hurricane Sandy, but New Jersey took the hit? How can that be? Obama went in there and had the big confab with Chris Christie. That was supposed to result in all kinds of Santa bucks. Again, just to reiterate, now, "The highest numbers of new filings came from Pennsylvania and Ohio where there were thousands of layoffs in the construction, manufacturing, and automobile industries."
Government data is being politically manipulated on a scale unthinkable just four years ago. That is DEADLY to a free enterprise economy.
It is better not to keep data at all than to manipulate data and put out phony results.
The problem with lying is that eventually you have no idea where the truth lies. Everything becomes distorted.
Like this economist says:
You are both right. This election was managed by the government media who spun the numbers and juxtaposed the data. Now that the election is over, we can return to “real”ville.
One person posted last month here on FR that Colorado is over 2 months behind in processing unemployment claims.
How many states are doing the same thing??
Once trust in government economic statistics is shattered, it can’t be put right in the next quarter.
California did it last month— to artificially lower the national unemployment rate by 3 tenths of a percent just before the election.
The BLS (Bureau of Lying Statistics) is a political whore that goes down easily and cheaply!
“The problem with lying is that eventually you have no idea where the truth lies. Everything becomes distorted.”
I no longer believe anything I see or hear until I verify it through multiple sources, particularly if the information comes from the government. Even if I can verify a piece of information if my eyes, ears, touch, smell, or intuition tells me it isn’t true I believe my own senses.
Secular humanists lie with no remorse. We live in a society where most institutions are controlled by secular humanists who have no moral values. I left the corporate world because I tired of CEO’s, customers, suppliers, and employees telling blatant lies to my face.
The secular elites controlling most institutions are in it 100% for themselves. They decry wealth while they accumulate it as fast as possible by any means possible. They profess love for other people while they socialize exclusively with their own kind. They claim to be open minded while they aggressively ridicule opponents and attempt to cut off free speech through various contrived rules of political correctness. The profess to cherish life while they kill the unborn and propose euthanasia for the elderly. They profess solidarity with the poor but have no money for charity. Despite not believing in a supreme being they claim to be tolerant of all religions while aggressively attacking Christian values and institutions and supporting the enemies of Christ’s church.
In today’s world lies are truth and truth is a lie. Any man or woman who says to me, “the truth is” or “let me tell you the truth”, I immediately run from. The only way to cope is to withdraw as much from society and limit contact to very close friends and family who have earned your trust.
Early in my adult life I trusted everyone I encountered. At that time I believed most people were trustworthy and deserved to be believed until their behavior demonstrated they were scoundrels. I soon became disappointed with people’s behavior and moved to a more cautious stance — “trust but verify”. Even with a more cautious approach, I’ve been burned too many times by scoundrels posing as “nice guys”. Today my trust must be earned over a long period of time by consistently moral behavior. Note I said my trust must be earned, it isn’t given.
Who in public life do I trust today — Obama, Romney, Gingrich, McCain, the Bush family, John Kerry, Bill Clinton, David Petraeus, the governor of my state, my last boss in the working world, my stockbroker, my minister, Rush Limbaugh, Glen Beck, my Congressman, the mailman, my next door neighbor, the mechanic who works on my car, or the mayor of my town? None of the above. I trust God, my wife, my child, my parents, and my sibling, plus a very few long term friends I’ve observed for 20 years or more. To do otherwise would be potentially fatal in today’s increasingly dangerous world in which liars rule and lies substitute for truth.
Excellent post, SotS
We’ve become Russia where it was easier to count the times the government spoke the truth, rather than count the lies.
The official Argentine figures for their consumer price inflation rate is 8.6% in 2011; data released by private consultancy firms indicate that the actual inflation number is about 23%. Big yawn? Its only numbers. So governments lie? So what is new, and why worry?
Graciela Bevacqua was the director of Argentina’s Consumer Price Index at the National Statistics Institute in Buenos Aires until she was fired for producing truthful statistics instead of the manipulated ones the Government ordered her to produce. Even as a private citizen, she is still being harassed. In March last year she was among a group of private researchers who were fined 500,000 pesos each for producing statistics the government said didnt comply with appropriate methodological requirements. in other words, for producing honest statistics. It may mean she will lose her home.
They have fined private consultants also who reported higher price increases; the quasi-legal excuse is that these consultants and companies are spreading information which might confuse the consumer.