No doubt Boehner has this message repeating in his brain: "If I pass a partial extension of the tax cuts for those below $X, then O can either sign it an do a victory dance (and Grover will torture me), or he will veto it and demand something else."
But the latter option, demanding something more (stimulus?), is clearly a riskier position for O than the House doing nothing but bluster, letting the budget control act do its thing.
Similarly, if the senate blocks the partial tax cut, that looks bad for Dems. However, one thing that worries me is that the simple bill gets amended in the senate, and then moves to the Pork-O-Rama bicameral conference, followed by a quick vote before they have time to read the bill.
O could sign the bill and do a victory dance, saying he kept his campaign promise. If the GOP is right about small businesses suffering as a result, that should become evident, although it's not clear to me whether voters understand or care about the economy at this time.
Maybe Boehner will see the light. I am not going to hold my breath. Dems are already rehearsing their talking points (and the media and many public school teachers will echo whatever they say): "Who refused to lower middle class taxes?"
I have already pondered these. If you watch Obama he is only talking about the tax cuts because he wants the voters to think that the rich are all Republicans care about, (and some seem to want to help him at that).
So he is setting things up so Republicans can call his bluff and pass the tax cuts, so then if he demands more Rs can make a big fuss about Obama demands a moving target and O playing with the middle class peoples lives.
So in this it is good that it is dragging out a while.
As far as gloating goes, Dems are going to do that. We have to be tough and stomach it.
But the longer the standoff drags out the more of a victory O can claim, and if Rs hold out like they did on the debt limit then Rs will really be hurt by it, and cave on it too.
I heard on the Dem channel that it is being leaked that Bohner is planning on doing exactly as I been advising, pass the tax cuts and nothing else.
I also heard on both channels that Obama wants to lure Rs into a suicidal confrontation early on so he can crush them with public opinion and they (leadership) will be terrified to stand up to him again, and the R party descends into civil war,
This one could just be Obama trying to psych out Republicans, but I can see it playing out that way too,