Thanks but no thanks. In the first place the potential for abuse is profound. For example, I can see this issue being used in every custody hearing from coast to coast, after being obscenely corrupted by our esteemed legal profession.
In the second place, this kind of violence is such a rare occurrence and the circumstances so indiosyncratic, that we have no reliable way to predict something like a "mass shooting." The FBI can't do it, the Secret Service can't do it, psychiatry can't do it, juries can't do it. I seriously doubt the sheriff in Podunk County can do it. And I don't think gut reactions count when it may be my freedom at stake.
In the third place, using his own numbers, 84% of murderers confined in state prisons are not mentally ill at all, so the very best this approach could do even in a perfect world would be to stop one out of six murders. Not much return for upending the very concept of "innocent until proven guilty."
It’s the “out darn spot” mentality. Because we have 26 murders, especially the fact that most of them were children, we have to come up with solutions to solve the problem even if it turns out that none of them would’ve prevented this from happening. The best way to deal with situations like these is not as much pre-emptive action as protective action when it may go down.
This reminds me of the hyperbole over hurricane Katrina. Over the years, ever since the early 1900s, hurricane fatalities have decreased with every successive storm but the way that Katrina was portrayed made it seem like it was the worst storm ever. Once we are all comfortable than outliers like this increase in exaggeration and size because the concept becomes more and more foreign to us.
Well, yes and no. This idea has been percolating around the greater RKBA community for the past couple of years, and really jelled with Clayton Cramer's book and recent articles. Kopel if you're not familiar with him, was an integral part of the "gun wars" of the 90's, whose own contribution to the RKBA argument was to quantify, and explain the role that "defensive gun uses" play in harm reduction and self defense situations.
It's good to see him engaged on this front, as well.
There may well have been abuses associated with involuntary committments, but the present practice, foisted on us by the ACLU in the 60's is, surely, worse.
The ultimate point of pushing this meme, at least from my humble perspective, is that gun control has always been sold as a remedy for the very social problems created by the policies of the progressive left. This is one opportunity among many to call them out, and move the debate away from guns, and back onto crime, criminality, and culture.