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Apple May Face First Profit Drop in Decade as IPhone Slows
Bloomberg | 1-22-13 | By Adam Satariano

Posted on 01/22/2013 3:40:22 PM PST by library user

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STORY


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KEYWORDS: aapl; apple; ipad; iphone
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Mod's can remove from 'breaking news' if appropriate.

The reason I thought the 'breaking' tag is warranted is because I think this (among other things) demonstrates the beginning of big dominoes about to fall, thanks to the narcissist-in-chief getting the second, of who knows how many, terms.

An earnings report tomorrow may show that fiscal first- quarter net income slipped 2 percent to $12.8 billion, or $13.48 a share, according to analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. That would be the first drop since 2003.

1 posted on 01/22/2013 3:40:31 PM PST by library user
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To: library user

Apple has saturated the marketplace with its phone. Most people are not going to replace their phone, just because a new model has come out and its competitors have improved their phones enough that Apple is no longer the default choice for many.

This was coming. Without some major, world-changing, new device, Apple is going to go in the same direction as Microsoft.


2 posted on 01/22/2013 3:47:13 PM PST by Jonty30 (What Islam and secularism have in common is that they are both death cults.)
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To: library user

It was inevitable as Android advanced to an equal in elegance, features and open file formats.

I have a Google (Nexus) 7” tablet that is every bit the equal (and I think superior) to the iPad.


3 posted on 01/22/2013 3:50:33 PM PST by IamConservative (The soul of my lifes journey is Liberty!)
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To: library user

Obama’s economy. Obama’s fault. His stupid leftist supporters fault.

Remind them at every opportunity.


4 posted on 01/22/2013 4:03:53 PM PST by FreeAtlanta (bahits.com)
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To: IamConservative

The Windows 8 phones and Surface are also really cool. I have a Win 8 phone and program for Surface and Windows 8 desktop at work.

It is really great that all the environments are so similar and apps can be easily set up for all the platforms. MS had slipped in recent years, but they are a serious threat to regain or stabilize their ground with this product.

I love my Windows 8 phone.


5 posted on 01/22/2013 4:06:47 PM PST by FreeAtlanta (bahits.com)
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To: library user

Or may not.


6 posted on 01/22/2013 4:07:14 PM PST by beethovenfan (If Islam is the solution, the "problem" must be freedom.)
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To: FreeAtlanta

Microsoft is actually ahead of Google and Apple, in terms of where computing is going in allowing people to move from one device to another, with minimal loss of productivity.


7 posted on 01/22/2013 4:11:13 PM PST by Jonty30 (What Islam and secularism have in common is that they are both death cults.)
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To: beethovenfan

Guarantee unless they pull off a flexible iphone 6 that can roll out from a AA battery size radius like Samsung is getting ready, Apple’s going to start shrinking in this market.


8 posted on 01/22/2013 4:13:53 PM PST by Monty22002
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To: FreeAtlanta

Can the surface map network drives? sign on to a domain?


9 posted on 01/22/2013 4:17:10 PM PST by deadrock
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To: IamConservative
I have a Google (Nexus) 7” tablet that is every bit the equal (and I think superior) to the iPad.

I have both an iPad Mini and a Google Nexus 7". I agree with your statement. It took me about 5 minutes to "figure out" my iPad when I received the iPad 1 three years ago as a gift. The "Mini" was an upgrade/gift from my family. As luck would have it, I now also have a Google Nexus 7 which was also a gift. That took me about 15 minutes to figure out (mostly due to differences in "app stores") and I have to say I like the Nexus 7" about as much as my iPad Mini. I still think the iPad Mini's easier to use, but I really am liking the ability to customize the Nexus' OS interface (Android Jellybean) better.

I'd also compared iPhone 5 to Samsung Galaxy II and when it's time for me to upgrade phones, Galaxy II it'll be. (That coming from a loyal iPad/iOS user.)

I suspect I'm not going to be alone.

10 posted on 01/22/2013 4:18:49 PM PST by usconservative (When The Ballot Box No Longer Counts, The Ammunition Box Does. (What's In Your Ammo Box?))
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To: FreeAtlanta

I’m a Microsoft guy from the late seventies. I’ve had a beer with Gates, Jobs and Wozniak. I never had much respect for Apple. The first time I bought one of their products it was an iPhone4. At the time I found it useful. Last November I bought a Nokia Lumia 920 with Windows8. It is amazing!. My wife now has the iPhone. I bought a Surface RT. Our operation has transitioned to Windows8. It is nothing short of amazing how easy it is to interact with a whole family with a seamless environment. We’ll be getting surface pro’s and converting from iPhone to Nokias.


11 posted on 01/22/2013 4:27:07 PM PST by BillM (.)
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To: BillM

The ease of programming will make it a real contender for business. Using VS 2012, you can write C#, VB, and even Javascript for the development. Very cool.


12 posted on 01/22/2013 5:01:18 PM PST by FreeAtlanta (bahits.com)
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To: DEADROCK

I haven’t tried. My desktop/laptop can, so I am guessing the Surface can.

I am writing apps to interact with SharePoint through internet access, so I haven’t needed to set the surface up that way.


13 posted on 01/22/2013 5:02:59 PM PST by FreeAtlanta (bahits.com)
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To: library user

Apple is Doomed again.

14 posted on 01/22/2013 5:20:46 PM PST by itsahoot (MSM and Fox free since Nov 1st. If it doesn’t happen here then it didn't happen.)
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To: library user

Droid Paper

15 posted on 01/22/2013 5:28:25 PM PST by itsahoot (MSM and Fox free since Nov 1st. If it doesn’t happen here then it didn't happen.)
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To: itsahoot

what does that even mean


16 posted on 01/22/2013 5:51:12 PM PST by dangerdoc (see post #6)
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To: library user; ~Kim4VRWC's~; 1234; Abundy; Action-America; acoulterfan; AFreeBird; Airwinger; ...
it IS NOT HAPPENING. This is a FUD Article, designed to force the stock price lower prior to tomorrow's financial report—PING!

The facts run COUNTER to the ANAL-lyst's claims. In fact over the last quarter US smartphone sales have resulted in iPhones claiming 51.2% of the US Market while Android phones have declined to 44.2! Source

In addition, the iPhone 5 was released in China during the quarter to the best demand ever, selling over three million in its first weekend of availability by lottery when only one out of three applicants who applied succeeded in getting an iPhone 5! Heavy demand has continued.

Finally, Apple released the iPad Mini that quarter AND refreshed the larger 10 IPad with a faster processor and faster graphics, both of which are selling to great demand!

For Apple to report a drop in profit would be absurd, and is only possible because this ANAL-lyst used the most pessimistic assumption possible and worst case scenarios and already debunked rumors released during the quarter, to make his prediction.

Releasing such a pessimistic prediction one day before the release of the REAL FIGURES can have only one purpose. . . Deliberately depressing the stock value so speculators can buy cheaply from panic sellers before the true announcement causes the price to go up.


Apple Ping!

If you want on or off the Mac Ping List, Freepmail me.

17 posted on 01/22/2013 11:26:46 PM PST by Swordmaker (This tag line is a Microsoft insult free zone... but if the insults to Mac users continue...)
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Comment #18 Removed by Moderator

Comment #19 Removed by Moderator

To: IamConservative
It was inevitable as Android advanced to an equal in elegance, features and open file formats.

New Samsung Galaxy sells for the same as iPhone 5 so that must tell you something. That it is equally coveted. Check out the prices for raw phones (no plans) on ebay and you can see this

20 posted on 01/23/2013 12:08:48 AM PST by dennisw (The first principle is to find out who you are then you can achieve anything -- Buddhist monk)
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To: library user

Insiders must have had knowledge of this “slowing” for a while because AAPL has been tanking for months during a rising or plateau stock market. All market darlings get kicked to the curb...eventually. The Cuppertino gangstas had a good run and should take their money and abscond to their favorite untaxed 3rd world paradise like Brazil or Myanmar


21 posted on 01/23/2013 12:14:41 AM PST by dennisw (The first principle is to find out who you are then you can achieve anything -- Buddhist monk)
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To: dennisw
New Samsung Galaxy sells for the same as iPhone 5 so that must tell you something. That it is equally coveted. Check out the prices for raw phones (no plans) on ebay and you can see this

We've reached the commoditization stage of the smartphone and tablet markets. Prices all go down from here. It will be interesting to see if the Apple pony can learn a new trick without it's visionary. Not a good time to invest in Apple IMO.

22 posted on 01/23/2013 4:44:18 AM PST by IamConservative (The soul of my lifes journey is Liberty!)
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To: dennisw

I see you’ve adopted the John Dvorak method of industry analysis: Predict gloom and doom for Apple year after year and you’ll eventually be right if you live long enough.

Tell us again how the HP Touchpad is going to destroy the iPad.


23 posted on 01/23/2013 8:12:40 AM PST by ReignOfError
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To: IamConservative
 

We've reached the commoditization stage of the smartphone and tablet markets. Prices all go down from here. It will be interesting to see if the Apple pony can learn a new trick without it's visionary.

I agree on the commoditization
The Asian tigers have no choice but to compete all out (and invest all out) with Apple because Apple smartphones and Apple tablets are eating into the laptops and desktop markets and the cellphone markets. Laptops prices are down as the iPad eats into laptop markets same as laptops ate into desktop markets for years. Laptop margins are also down so they (Asians such as Samsung, LG) have to take on Apple in these two devices, tablets and smartphones, that Apple started entirely new markets in. I'll give Jobs and Apple credit for establishing these two markets

 

24 posted on 01/23/2013 8:33:15 AM PST by dennisw (The first principle is to find out who you are then you can achieve anything -- Buddhist monk)
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To: BillM

Anyone have a “units sold” number for the Surface vs. the iPad? I have been told by friends in retail that there is initial enthusiasm for the Surface, but when they realized how much it will cost to have laptop functionality and tablet functionality, people are walking.


25 posted on 01/23/2013 8:36:45 AM PST by Crusher138 ("Then conquer we must, for our cause it is just")
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To: ReignOfError

When they have to cut out serving macrobiotic& vegetarian meals in the Apple cafeteria.... Then you will know AAPL is in real trouble but by then you will be bailing way too late

Don’t get married to any stock and (more importantly) don’t get married to Steve Jobs.


26 posted on 01/23/2013 8:42:40 AM PST by dennisw (The first principle is to find out who you are then you can achieve anything -- Buddhist monk)
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To: Crusher138

Answering my own question after reading some reports, it seems that as of the end of the year there were between 500,000 and 700,000 Surface tablets in use. Some reports have sales as high at 1,000,000 units. In the same quarter Apple reports 20,000,000 iPads sold, amongst speculation of slipping sales.

My retail reports have been confirmed - people have sticker shock over the cost of the surface. While it may have some functionality superiority over the iPad (on screen multitasking, for instance) those advantages do not seem to justify the considerably higher price of the “pro” version, which is the version most asked about. While the RT version is aimed at the iPad, customers seem to prefer the format and software availability of the iPad.

Bracing myself for more ADS (Apple Derangement Syndrome)


27 posted on 01/23/2013 9:06:47 AM PST by Crusher138 ("Then conquer we must, for our cause it is just")
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To: dennisw
I'll give Jobs and Apple credit for establishing these two markets

Any thoughts on where personal computing goes from here?

I've thought for a long time that we will get to a point where each person will have a "device" of some kind that is completely integrated into our lives. When you get to work, it will be the device you use for work. In that car, it will be the device that you use to navigate, listen to music, etc. It will be the device you use to shop, buy and pay for things. At home, it will provide you access to information, will be the pathway to your entertainment choices. On Sunday, you will get your sermon from it if you so choose. Etc.

If you want to go a little further into the future, this device will have a wireless man/machine interface. If you "think" a question, this device will go get the answer and communicate it to you telepathically. We aren't that far off. There are now robotic prosthesis that are controlled by thought.

In short; The Matrix. Question is,in a world this automated, what value can humans provide to earn a paycheck?

28 posted on 01/23/2013 9:28:32 AM PST by IamConservative (The soul of my lifes journey is Liberty!)
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To: Crusher138
iPhones and iPads are products. Microsoft is attempting to create an entire universe of communications/enterprise management/and entertainment.

Skype works on all platforms. Office365 is a cross platform system. XBOX is being integrated.

It is pretty nifty to add a phone number to a contact on your Nokia and have it show up on your work computer and your wife's phone within seconds.

29 posted on 01/23/2013 11:13:47 AM PST by BillM (.)
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To: dangerdoc
what does that even mean

Any post that has Apple news in it always attracts Apple haters that brag about all the products they will buy before they would ever buy any Apple product.

I predict that Apple will not report a loss in profits today.

30 posted on 01/23/2013 11:15:45 AM PST by itsahoot (MSM and Fox free since Nov 1st. If it doesn’t happen here then it didn't happen.)
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To: Swordmaker

At least the article admits that the quarter about to be reported on is 13 weeks, as opposed to 14 weeks in the same quarter last year...

Mathematically - if Apple sold the same amount and had the same margin for those 13 weeks being reported - it will still “look” smaller - by 7% because of the one less week.


31 posted on 01/23/2013 11:40:27 AM PST by TheBattman (Isn't the lesser evil... still evil?)
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To: Swordmaker

Iphone leadership is over. Not because Apple is inherently bad but, the cache of exclusivity has passed as other manufacturers deliver equally great features and in many cases surpassing Apple.

Samsung, for one, delivers a bigger screen, seeker case and features I’m sure others can enumerate but, for me those two features alone are why I bought Samsung.

I use my phone all day for business and pleasure and the bigger screen is just way easier on mu eyes.

Paritcularly so when I look at my mapping as I drive in an unfamiliar neighborhood or using websites that employ Flash. Apple hates Flash and it was demonstrated just last night when a friend tried use his iphone to play a rerun of Hawaii Five-0 through Apple TV.

You see he couldn’t find it on his phone but it showed just fine on mine, as well on my laptop.

Then we both recalled an interview in which Jobs pointedly said he hates Flash.

Guess that’s fine but Flash is cheaper to deploy than other technologies.

Bottom line is Iphone is a great tool bit there are now equally good tools available, if not better. But, saying one is better than another is usually a personal preference.

I recall when ATT Merlin was considered by many to be the best key system available. I never saw it that way as NEC and Nortel had better features.

Just my opinion.


32 posted on 01/23/2013 11:45:46 AM PST by Vendome (Don't take life so seriously, you won't live through it anyway)
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To: FreeAtlanta
It is really great that all the environments are so similar and apps can be easily set up for all the platforms

That is what Apple has been gunning for for almost 6 years now - and what Microsoft finally saw as a necessary evolution.

Having spent some time around both "ecosystems", Windows on phone works ok (though not my "cup of tea). The same interface on a laptop/desktop is a nightmare. It's almost as if, while Apple has moved their OS and iOS towards a middle-ground, Microsoft's strategy was to move it all towards the mobile environment. Only time will tell if the public accepts it.

33 posted on 01/23/2013 11:47:01 AM PST by TheBattman (Isn't the lesser evil... still evil?)
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To: Vendome
Flash is a security hazard, a battery hog, and a dying technology. On my Linux box, I block Flash by default and only enable it if I really need it. And those instances are rare.
34 posted on 01/23/2013 11:54:46 AM PST by kevkrom (If a wise man has an argument with a foolish man, the fool only rages or laughs...)
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To: Vendome

All over the world in more modest standard of living nations like Uruguay and India and Greece.... The smartFone of choice is an Android. People simply cannot afford iPhones. Android outsells iPhone when all nations are tallied. Android phone can be cheap, middle and luxurious cutting edge such as the (well named) Galaxy s3. Notice how the cheap bast##ds at Apple cannot compete with Samsung so they sic their lawyers on them


35 posted on 01/23/2013 12:13:37 PM PST by dennisw (The first principle is to find out who you are then you can achieve anything -- Buddhist monk)
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To: dennisw
Android outsells iPhone when all nations are tallied

Apple's business model has never been about having the most market share (though they'll gladly take their 2/3 share of the tablet market) but of getting the best profits -- Apple gets about 75% of the worldwide smartphone profit, Samsung a little less than 25%, and everyone else a negligible amount.

36 posted on 01/23/2013 12:17:55 PM PST by kevkrom (If a wise man has an argument with a foolish man, the fool only rages or laughs...)
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To: dennisw

Yep. I have the GII and will be upgrading to the III or note in a couple of weeks.


37 posted on 01/23/2013 12:18:47 PM PST by Vendome (Don't take life so seriously, you won't live through it anyway)
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To: IamConservative

Instead of focusing on new features, what they need to focus on is how to get better battery life.


38 posted on 01/23/2013 12:19:12 PM PST by dfwgator
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To: kevkrom

Apple has always had snob appeal. Kind of gay if you ask me, all that snarky snobby one-upsmanship. Obama should tax those Cupertino one percenters till they scream... raise their taxes through the roof to share the wealth so the po’ and minorities can get their free ObamaFones


39 posted on 01/23/2013 12:22:15 PM PST by dennisw (The first principle is to find out who you are then you can achieve anything -- Buddhist monk)
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To: library user
By the way, for comparative purposes, a summary of all analyst projections, and not just cherry-picked pessimistic ones, yields:
The median estimate among all 65 analysts is for earnings of $14.20 on sales of $55.96 billion, up 10% and 30%, respectively. [emphasis mine]

40 posted on 01/23/2013 12:24:49 PM PST by kevkrom (If a wise man has an argument with a foolish man, the fool only rages or laughs...)
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To: kevkrom

I block flash by default on my desktop computer. I turn it on for youtube. The main reason for me using flash-block extension on Firefox is to void out annoying advertising

https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/flashblock/


41 posted on 01/23/2013 12:27:23 PM PST by dennisw (The first principle is to find out who you are then you can achieve anything -- Buddhist monk)
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To: kevkrom

Think Flash should assassinated myself but, it still lives because it’s cheaper. I hate Flash knowing there are better techs but, even today there are people using XP based machines. in fact, I recently gave one to a friend and he was happy I didn’t give him a New computer, as he would to learn the New OS and he couldn’t bear it.


42 posted on 01/23/2013 12:28:11 PM PST by Vendome (Don't take life so seriously, you won't live through it anyway)
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To: dennisw

So which do you troll more, Apple’s products or their business model? Or are you an equal opportunity basher?


43 posted on 01/23/2013 12:28:56 PM PST by kevkrom (If a wise man has an argument with a foolish man, the fool only rages or laughs...)
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To: DEADROCK
Can the surface map network drives? sign on to a domain?

The Surface RT tablets cannot. The Surface Pro tablets due out in the next few weeks should be able to.

44 posted on 01/23/2013 12:29:50 PM PST by tacticalogic ("Oh, bother!" said Pooh, as he chambered his last round.)
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To: tacticalogic

My biggest concerns on the Surface Pro is how it will compare to the existing “ultrabook” segment (including the tablet convertible models) and I have serious reservations about its battery life, given the specs put out so far. I really don’t have any worries that it won’t behave like a standard Win8 computer in terms of software, networking, etc.


45 posted on 01/23/2013 12:36:02 PM PST by kevkrom (If a wise man has an argument with a foolish man, the fool only rages or laughs...)
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To: kevkrom
Apple's business model has never been about having the most market share (though they'll gladly take their 2/3 share of the tablet market) but of getting the best profits -- Apple gets about 75% of the worldwide smartphone profit, Samsung a little less than 25%, and everyone else a negligible amount.

That sounds like a reason to buy the stock, but to be suspicious of the product.

46 posted on 01/23/2013 12:37:23 PM PST by tacticalogic ("Oh, bother!" said Pooh, as he chambered his last round.)
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To: tacticalogic
That sounds like a reason to buy the stock, but to be suspicious of the product.

Explain, please. The way I see it, Apple's business model is to not get themselves involved in the "commodity" level of a market segment, because there's virtually no profit there, and "market share" is, in the end, meaningless to the bottom line. They aim at the most profitable portion of the market segment. Whether you agree with that approach or not, it appears to be working for them.

47 posted on 01/23/2013 12:41:04 PM PST by kevkrom (If a wise man has an argument with a foolish man, the fool only rages or laughs...)
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To: IamConservative
I've thought for a long time that we will get to a point where each person will have a "device" of some kind that is completely integrated into our lives. When you get to work, it will be the device you use for work. In that car, it will be the device that you use to navigate, listen to music, etc. It will be the device you use to shop, buy and pay for things. At home, it will provide you access to information, will be the pathway to your entertainment choices. On Sunday, you will get your sermon from it if you so choose. Etc.

An enhanced smartphone could do this. It would have to have the features of a $1000 laptop in smartphone size. It would have to have mini-hdmi out so you could connect it to monitors, HDTVs. It would have to connect with an external keyboard...bluetooth? It would have to have much better video and storage than what you have today

If you want to go a little further into the future, this device will have a wireless man/machine interface. If you "think" a question, this device will go get the answer and communicate it to you telepathically. We aren't that far off. There are now robotic prosthesis that are controlled by thought.

In short; The Matrix. Question is,in a world this automated, what value can humans provide to earn a paycheck?

In America humans cannot provide this value and it is getting worse all the time because of computerization-automation. This is why I say "productivity" is a joke and the obsession with "productivity" is as stupid as it gets. It was better 50 years ago when all men's labor was needed in a pretty much zero unemployment (3.3% was acceptable and a part of job churning) economy. Human labor was so highly valued that we brought slaves here....But today the labor of those slaves ancestors is unskilled thus unneeded.

I don't know about telepathy. I think the robot will anticipate your thoughts by doing a brain scan or you will have wires to your brains hot spots

48 posted on 01/23/2013 12:42:12 PM PST by dennisw (The first principle is to find out who you are then you can achieve anything -- Buddhist monk)
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To: kevkrom
My biggest concerns on the Surface Pro is how it will compare to the existing “ultrabook” segment (including the tablet convertible models) and I have serious reservations about its battery life, given the specs put out so far. I really don’t have any worries that it won’t behave like a standard Win8 computer in terms of software, networking, etc.

I don't think Microsoft set out to dominate the hardware market with the Surface tablet, but to set a benchmark. They will still make money on every Windows tablet computer sold.

49 posted on 01/23/2013 12:45:12 PM PST by tacticalogic ("Oh, bother!" said Pooh, as he chambered his last round.)
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To: kevkrom

Jobs sucked too but he checked out early. All his billions from skimming the high end segments (like you and other Apple acolytes brag about) could not buy him an f’ing cure. Kind of pathetic. Steve Jobs—when your pancreas and liver are on fire you just might be a nasty bast##d, TCM says so


50 posted on 01/23/2013 12:47:18 PM PST by dennisw (The first principle is to find out who you are then you can achieve anything -- Buddhist monk)
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