Who is lying?
Give those truckers ‘Obama’ phones and EBT cards!
But, like many I like to listen to peoples investment key indicators and theories.
I met a guy @ the better half's employer's luncheon.
Said gent noted his key for in and out of the market(s) were the (I'll assume going forward orders) orders and revenues of the various truck manufacturers at the time and he always seemed to be out before a downturn. I'd need to really study this pet theory, but like many they are food for thought...
It’s not a bad idea to keep an eye on cardboard production and box manufacturing.
You can watch the Big Tanker stocks....too. TNP, DHT, TK, GASS, VLCCF.....etc.
It makes perfect sense that truckers would know first, since they are the part of logistics which is closest to end consumers. Container shipping works on a 9-12 month lead time from factory orders to shipments, but a trucker going from a WalMart distribution center to a store would know what the economy is doing in that town on a daily basis, based on how full the truck is that day.
Blam,
I deal with small to medium size trucking companies everyday. They all are trying to find drives and they all are adding trucks to their fleets. At $150K a pop(for a tractor), they do not do this without some forethought. The biggest problem they all tell me about is the inability to find qualified CDL drivers that can pass a drug test and therefore able to insure them. Starting pay for most of these companies is $45K/year.
In addition to my own personal experience, I have heard both McClain and Central Oregon Trucking commercials on the radio advertising for drivers and offering a signing bonus.
We are coming out of the recession. Housing starts and permits are steadily increasing. Existing home sales are steadily growing and inventories are 4 months or less. Unemployment is slowly going down.
We may not like Obama or his policies but I can assure you that all of the above statements are fact and point to an improving economy not the opposite.
Rail car activity is also a tell tale sign. As an FYI UPS puts a ton of their ground packages on rail.
My brother is a trucker. He’s shared many of these concerns.
He’s gone from having a fleet of a dozen trucks and 20 employees to only himself, his wife, and his son.
Too bad too, he was a good employer and took care of his people. Guess it’s up to the president to do that now
By the time trucking stats start heading south it is too late.
Cardboard orders, used for all sorts of packaging, leads trucking by maybe a quarter or so.
I worked for a trailer manufacturer for about 15 years many years ago. It was no secret that the trucking industry was the first to tank and the last to recover in a recession.
I went through several of them. We would go from 6 months to 12 months backlog of orders to zero orders (all cancelled) in a few weeks when the recession started. When the economy recovered, people would want trailers immediately since they waited to buy a new one until the old one completely failed and could not be patched up one more time. If they couldn’t get it immediately, they would go elsewhere. When every manufacturer got busy again, no one could order something immediately from anywhere. Eventually, the backlog would start growing again when people learned to anticipate replacements for their fleet.
The transport stocks are always the leading indicators.
Friend of ours is a railroad conductor. He said about what the trucking article said ... keep an eye on shipping because a slowdown will hit the railroad before anyone else.
An earlier thread on trucking and other areas as economic indicators. The FedEx Indicator (3/23/2012)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2863093/posts