Sales INCREASED IN THE US by 0.9% when they anticipated a minus .3 decline. So your theory doesn't appear to work in the US.
U.S. retail sales rose .3% in November, aided by car sales which is normal for end of year model sales. This offset a 0.3 % decline in October. Department store sales dropped 0.8 percent and general merchandise that includes Wal-Mart and Target fell 0.9 %.
For December, adjusted sales were 0.5% higher which statistically would fall within a margin of error for 0 %.
Spending for 2012 didn’t even equal 2011; unadjusted 2012 at 5.2% which is down from 7.9% overall unadjusted in 2011.
Excluding auto sales which traditionally impact end of year sales, sales rose 0.3% which was slightly above the predicted 0.2% positive forecast (not minus .3%).
It is forecast that spending is unlikely to move upward by much until hiring picks up. Right now, consumer spending which is 70+ % of the economy and the main driver. Overall, the trend is flat and new taxes will put a further strain on consumer spending power. We had the Christmas season spike (such as it was), but it is a new year with new government drains on the economic engine. Overall, I would say the theory still fits but who knows? Miracles do happen.