Skip to comments.Three steps: How the Dems plan to make Texas a battleground state by 2016
Posted on 02/27/2013 12:08:11 PM PST by SeekAndFind
On Tuesday morning, the Democrats launched an independent group called Battleground Texas, which is capable of making the Lone Star state a battleground by 2016 and a lean-Democrat state by 2024, effectively breaking the back of the national GOP and blocking a Republican path to the White House.
Yes that Texas: The state that has not elected a single statewide Democratic official in 10 years, with Republicans going 100-0; the state that has had an entirely Republican government since 2002, with current super majorities in the legislature; and the state that hasnt voted for a Democratic president since Jimmy Carter in 1976.
History aside, if neither party lifts a finger to change current trends, the demographic changes taking place in Texas will by themselves seal it as blue by around 2040. The Democrats, however, plan to lift more than a finger; and if they play their cards right, they could speed the process up by 25 years, putting Texas in play much sooner.
Sound far-fetched? It isnt. And although that timeline is going to be difficult for the Democrats, they have the right path and the right people to pull this coup off in three steps. But first, some background.
Today, Hispanics make up 41 percent of Texas citizenry, while whites made up 43 percent. The white electorates plurality, however, will not last because the Hispanic populations birth rates are higher, the Hispanic population is still growing through immigration, and the Hispanic population is younger (with a large population not yet at voting age). If legal Hispanic immigration stays consistent with 2000-2010 levels, Texas could be a plurality Hispanic state by 2017, and a majority Hispanic state by 2036.
Both parties know that Hispanics are not a monolithic group, and they are not all Democrats. Though nationally they lean toward the Democrats (67 percent in 2008, 71 percent in 2012), in Texas, Democrats hold less sway (63 in 2008, and unknown in 2012 because there werent any exit polls).
Indeed, the Texas GOP is a different animal from the national party, and it wins Hispanic support in larger numbers than the national party, making it more difficult for Texas Democrats to make inroads. Gov. Rick Perrys 2010 re-election, for example, won 39 percent of Hispanics, and Real Clear Politics reports that in 2012, the Texas GOP increased the number of Hispanic elected officials from 58 to 78. (RELATED: Gallup report: GOP unlikely to gain much traction with Latinos)
These statistics, plus Texas GOP policies that include a softer stance on immigration than neighboring Republicans, have led some on the right to dismiss the prospect of a blue Texas. The Texas Republican Party is different and far stronger than its counterparts in other states, Americans for Tax Reform President Grover Norquist wrote in a Jan. 31 column entitled Dems shouldnt mess with Texas.
But the Dems are very capable of messing with Texas through three steps. And thats just what theyre fixing to do, starting with voter registration.
THE THREE STEPS:
1) Voter registration
While there are about 9.5 million Hispanics in Texas, compared with 11.5 million whites, Hispanics only accounted for about 20 percent of the Texans who voted in 2008 and 2010. One of the two reasons? Voter registration.
In 2008, 54 percent of Texan Hispanics were registered, while white and black registration held even at 74 percent. And in 2010, Hispanics were registered at just 53 percent, while whites and blacks were at 67 and 62 percent, respectively. Over all, Texas is home to 1.5 million unregistered Hispanic-Americans, 500,000 unregistered African-Americans and 200,000 unregistered Asian-Americans all populations the Democrats intend to target.
2) Voter participation
But the fight to win a voter doesnt end with voter registration the next step is voter participation. A party can register all the people it wants, but if they dont show up on Election Day, it doesnt make a difference.
Hispanics lag behind in this aspect, too: In 2008, 70 percent of registered Hispanic voters turned out, while whites and blacks were tied at 88 percent. In 2010, only 43 percent of Hispanics turned out, compared with 65 percent of registered whites and 62 percent of registered blacks.
The Hispanics are underperforming as far as voter participation is concerned. Democrats know that this leaves a lot of room for improvement a lot of room for outreach.
3) Voting blue
Now comes the harder part, at least as far as a 2016 timeline is concerned, because shifting public opinion is harder than registering voters or increasing turnouts. But the bottom line is this: If the Democrats accomplish their first two goals, and get Texan Hispanics in line with national Hispanic party affiliation, they could put Texas in play in 2016. And while swinging public opinion is difficult, it certainly isnt impossible particularly giving the Democrats demonstrated ability to micro-target potential voters with data-driven messaging. (BEDFORD: How Romneys consultants lost the election as soon as it began)
In 2008, 35 percent of Texan Hispanics voted for the GOP. No exit polls were taken in Texas in 2012, but the national Hispanic GOP vote was only 27 percent four points lower than the national Hispanic GOP vote in 2008. So, going off of limited data, and giving the GOP the benefit of the doubt, the Democrats would need to swing Texan Hispanic voters their way by between four and eight points.
It won't take 3 steps, only one illegal action -
And the total ineffective GOP won’t be able to stop it. Sad, but the Republican empire is totally screwed.
In a matter of less than 15 years, those young people will be voting...and well over half of them will be voting democrat...probably more like 60% of them.
Texas will be a blue state and that's when I leave. I refuse to live in a state run by democrats. OK here I come.
Texans are allowing bilingual practices everywhere. THey’re stupid on this.
What is the plan?
All Mexican-Americans will be bilingual?
Absolutely not. That’s just illogical, not to mention that the social pressure is that all Americans owe it to the Mexicans and Mexican Americans to convert their culture.
Latinos voted Dem for pres 74%.
They’ll turn Texas blue so fast it’s going to curl people’s hair.
There’ll be no where to go after that.
Heard an ad this morning for a roofing co whil listening to Rush: “Mexicans get 50% off”.
FF One year. Gonna be a different place. Perry is not on top of this, unless he wants it, which I wouldn’t put past these dopey dopey GOPers.
Texas is in the midst of being destroyed by within, and 0bama is doing all he can to flood the state with illegals. 0bama should ONCE AGAIN be impeached for violating federal law with his recent release of illegals from detention centers. This is a coordinated plan as has been done to other states. Hard to believe that the State of California was at one time in love with Ronald Reagan.
They are ineffective because they choose to be. They are in support of this invasion and occupation like their brothers in the Democrat party.
Yup. AMNESTY (or any such scheme that leads to citizenship for masses of illegal aliens) will ensure that Republicans never win another election. USSA here we come.
In their dreams. The Entitlement state is about to collapse, we all know SSI, Medicare, Medicaid, Obamacare are unsustainable and even taking our 401k’s won’t fix it. Unless Obama declares himself king and takes all our assets, he is still playing with the destruction of the currency. We may not make it until 2016. It is my hope that in their arrogance, they are dooming themselves to failure. Even Woodard is beginning to see the hubris.
Where is Perry? Where is the Texas GOP? Where are conservative Texans?
From your lips to God’s ear.
Complacency is not just a river in Africa. (something like that)
The three steps:
1.) Register illegals and have them vote
3.) MASSIVE voter fraud in Houston
The GOPe don’t care as long as the plans of the ruling class are furthered. Besides the quisling Republicans can always join the Democrats. They are for all intents and purposes the same anyway.
Two things will decide the future of Texas, controlling Texas education to teach Texas patriotism to Hispanics, and converting a sizable number of Hispanics to Protestant Christianity.
Texas is strong in both those areas in a way that California never was, since it never was fundamentally conservative, nor Evangelical.
What friggen good is winning Texas when you broke the whole friggen country!
Ya good luck with that. The king of nothing.
How do they think CA went from a battleground state to solid Blue?
Have you been to South and West Texas lately? It is like visiting Mexico.
They’re feeding, sheltering, educating and medicating hundreds of thousands of Mexicans with the intention of having them all voting Democrat by 2016. That along with the influx of CA economic refugees, Blacks and the university vote just may put Texas in play....the end of our prosperity.
Isn’t that what this thread is about? That is why I posted what I did.
By not having strong social conservative and religious roots, and the Protestants becoming outnumbered.
I’m just not as optimistic as you are concerning bringing Hispanic Texans to our side. The ones who have come in the past quarter century, legally and illegally, are not of the same mindset as the Hispanics who came before are unlikely to change regardless of education.
The battle for the electorate, will not be just through a demographic assault. Sure, amnesty is an approach towards getting more democratic party voters, but, the biggest assault against the republicans and against the country, has been happening for decades, and the democrats have been winning in that front.
Dumbing down the electorate has been an approach which has achieved results beyond what the democrats themselves probably underestimated.
Creating a dependent society, has also yielded results which the democrats probably also underestimated.
The republicans certainly were caught flat-footed, and now, all that the democrats need, to achieve permanent residency in the White House and total control of both houses of congress for decades to come, is for the number of voters who depend upon any kind of government assistance, to become a dependable 51-55% majority. Once that 51-55% majority is attained, the republicans might as well pack up and go elsewhere, and the U.S. can kiss its sorry ass good-bye.
The immigration and amnesty battleground is one way to introduce a huge number of new government dependent voters to the democratic party’s loyal voters. That is working, but, creating the dependent society is where the war will be won. The democrats are winning that war.
we need Hispanic candidates everywhere...it is what it is...gone are the days of voting in your favorite Italian or Pole just because they went to your church....
today's Hispanics are yesterdays Italians and Poles and Germans and Irish....
entirely unhappy about illegals....but to lose our whole country because of that, when we can take lemons and make lemonade, its a no brainer..
Our Country is all but gone. The Dems are going to flood TX with Illegals just like they did CA, a once Republican State.
Between that and the incremental disarming of gun-owners and an enabling media, it will either take a Civil War which most people don’t have the stomach for or the will to fight, or it will take a total crash of the economy.
The State-Run media will be more than happy to welcome our new friends from South of the Border, much like they will prop up Michelle Obama as the “Savior” to finish the wonderful work that Barack could not, due to term limits.
Sadly, 51%+ of the Illegals, Blacks, Union members, Womyn, Homos and other America-haters will vote her in. Don’t forget voter fraud as well and you have more than enough votes to elect the horse-faced one to finish off our Country.
On the plus side, I’ll be retired overseas.
On the negative side, most of my income will be dependent on Social Security which will likely be cut or SS will possibly be bankrupt as there won’t be enough people working to support the system from imploding with prolonged double-digit inflation.
Obama is pure evil. He wants to destroy our Country and he is doing it. How did such a charlatan not only get elected but re-elected? Yes, the media cheerleaders helped but are voters that stupid?
I guess we already know the answer to that question.
the southwest has had a high proportion of LEGAL hispanics from day one....
such loser mentatlity lately....
change is here...embrace it, work with it, or be stomped by it....
OUR America is not here anymore...not the America I grew up in...
but our parents thought the same thing and their grandparents the same, etc....
we will survive...
What do you mean as optimistic as me?
Are you responding to the wrong poster?
In a matter of less than 15 years, those young people will be voting...and well over half of them will be voting democrat...probably more like 60% of them.
Texas will be a blue state and that’s when I leave. I refuse to live in a state run by democrats. OK here I come.
There won’t be anywhere to go. The dem plan is to dump the costs of kenyancare and the welfare state onto all cities/states. That is the only way to make the blue states “competitive”. IOW, spread the misery to all except the elite.
“Where is Perry? Where is the Texas GOP?”
Right there with Carl Rove, for the most part it seems.
Where are conservative Texans?
Standing with the Tea Party, iCaucus, GOOOH, and other grassroots startups that are holding the Conservative line.
Where is Carl Rove?
Fighting against all of the above grassroots groups.
So if A=B, and B=C, then . . . .
Texas = a risk of serious blueness.
Winning what? Again, I try not to be pesimistic, but they are pushing towards total collapse and they will own it. The game of musical chairs on the deck of the Titanic is their game! I don't see how Bernanke's pump and dump doesn't come back to bite them in the @$$ and we don't have another Sept 2008 situation. They might have total control, but of what? An economy = to Poland in the 70's? By that time their is either a great awakening, civil unrest, or those of us with like minds are already out of here....
I am stationed at NAS Kingsville and live in Corpus Christi. I shop at the WalMart in Robstown. Frequently, I am the only non-hispanic in that entire store. It turns into a crazy third world bazar every Sunday afternoon. I think Texas will turn dem sooner than later. I scratch my head because these people come over the border and turn their new home into the same cespool they came from.
Unless there is a seachange in attitudes regarding multiculturalism & political correctness I do not think Texas will have as much success converting millions of newcomers as you say.
“. . .today’s Hispanics are yesterdays Italians and Poles and Germans and Irish....”
I grew up with yesterday’s Italians and Poles, Germans and Irish. Their children and grandchildren sat next to me, one of them, in classrooms.
These kids were forbidden from speaking the language of their grandparents for two reasons, 1)out of respect for their new and beloved country and proper assimilation 2) In order for the children to succeed in life. They are now, by and large, professionals.
We are among Mexicans now. My children watch them gain entry and scholarships for being Hispanic. WE are told in church to give to them as they are the future of the church, taking over buildings language and culture, giving what back? The Germans, Irish etc built the churches. The Irish women raised the money and the motivation to build St. Pat’s in NYC, no government funding, and the atmosphere was no Irish need apply. they gave back educated Americans, priests and well, ok alot of unsavory dem leaders, among many contributors to this society.
THe Irish welcome everyone to be Irish on their adopted day and the Irish flag is always lower than the American flag, as is the German flag and the rest in this country. I learned about that rule one day as a child while with a bunch of families in a bar on St Patricks Day.
This group of people is like these former immigrants in NO way Not in any way. None.
As I said?? What are you talking about?
You might be posting to the wrong person.
OK. But Texans had better awaken to the idea that these people do not like them nor do they like America.
That these people are not coming here to improve this country and the Texans are on now to protect, defend, teah and guide. We dont’ resist immigrants, just the turnign over of our culture, and laws.
But, conservatives in Tejas have a secret weapon to use on our east-side “hispanics”...
Out here in the West, the “hispanics” are working the O&G industry and know their job depends on the right-wing conservatives.
Not just illegals. Gov. Perry is actively trying to recruit companies to move to Texas from California.
And along with California companies come....Californians.
The Republicans need to remind Hispanic voters that the reason Texas is one of the states that needs DOJ approval to change voting laws is because of the Democrats who ran the state in bygone days. All y’all know, guys like LBJ, Judge Black, et. al.
It is really quite easy for the Rats, because they own the big cities, where all the parasite votes are. The domino effect is no longer communism in the Far East—it is on our home turf!
Californians = Progressive bacteria.. There is no cure.
When Hispanics vote to be socialist by a score of 3:1....they ARE my enemy. When millions of them come here and choose to change MY culture for theirs...instead of being part of the melting pot...they are my enemy.
And "needing" Hispanic Candidates? BULL. We need conservative candidates...I could not care less about their race...but the notion that we need "Hispanic candidates" has been proven ABSOLUTELY false...especially since Cruz (my Senator and fav by far) did not get even close to a majority of the Hispanic vote. It was barely past the MOE.
Hispanics vote DEM by and large, just like blacks...and neither care what color the individual is...they jsut vote for the (D). Those who are on a path to citizenship are even MORE likely to do so...and their children make up a sizable % of Texas school kids.
So don't tell me who my enemy is until you understand the battlefield and have some SA. Ignore it at your own peril.
Makes sense, and Perry knew if he joined Romney in the broadbased illegal bashing (”they will all go home when they get hungry’) it would be a Dem tool to rile them up against him.
Yep. Could be there are two ansel12s.
You could just realize that you made a mistake and acknowledge it rather than double down.
“”I do not think Texas will have as much success converting millions of newcomers as you say.””
How much success did I say they will have? What is the quote?
Rather than getting snarky, how about just explaining what you are talking about.
How many were in the United states in 1790?
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