Nate Silver: With Popularity Fading at Home, Is Bobby Jindal the New Mitt Romney?

New York Times ^ | 04/10/2013 | Nate Silver

[SeekAndFind]

Monday’s article on the nation’s least popular governors did not include Gov. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, because he is not up for re-election in 2014. (Louisiana’s next gubernatorial election will be in 2015, and Mr. Jindal will not be eligible, having served two consecutive terms.) But recent surveys suggest that Mr. Jindal has become very unpopular in his home state amid a series of battles on fiscal policy. A March poll from Southern Media & Opinion Research put Mr. Jindal’s approval rating at just 38 percent, against 60 percent disapproval. His numbers had been similarly poor in a February survey by Public Policy Polling.

Some national political commentators are treating the news as being self-evidently injurious to Mr. Jindal’s chances of capturing the Republican presidential nomination in 2016. Obviously, Mr. Jindal has plenty of time to turn around his image in Louisiana. But if he doesn’t, would Republicans really consider nominating someone who is so deeply unpopular among his own constituents?

Actually, you don’t have to go back very far to find a precedent for when Republicans did exactly that. Their nominee last year, Mitt Romney, was very unpopular among Massachusetts voters by the time he finished his single term as governor in 2006.

The chart below tracks Mr. Romney’s approval and favorability ratings during his term, based on data from PollingReport.com. Mr. Romney was reasonably popular throughout most of his tenure (as Mr. Jindal has been). But Mr. Romney numbers declined once he began to reposition himself as a candidate for national office (for instance, in gradually shifting his stance on abortion and contraception toward the right).

[SeekAndFind]

Agree or disagree with Nate silver, his polling track record is superb.

He was THE MOST ACCURATE POLLSTER in 2012.

[SeekAndFind]

[illiac]

Don’t agree/disagree with him.

I think this may be a pre-emptive strike, though....

[BitWielder1]

I don't care who is most popular, I want to find who is the best choice for the next president.
Don't follow the majority, the majority is often wrong, especially when they follow poll results.

[PoloSec]

Consider The Source!

[Gay State Conservative]

I take *my* abysmal “poll numbers” here in the Gay State,the result of unpopular positions on issues large and small,as a badge of honor.If the day ever comes when folks like me are *popular* in what must certainly be considered the filthiest of our 57 states I’ll have to consider a trip to my basement,carrying a think,sturdy length of rope.

[yefragetuwrabrumuy]

If there is a conservative presidential candidate, he should keep his platform limited to 10 key points, that are popular with Republicans and conservatives.

Think of it as a Contract With America, which when introduced was wildly popular.

The advantage of doing this is that it is simple and binary. Most people would understand it, and definitely appreciate its clarity.

It also says that the candidate “does not haggle”, and will not sell America’s birthright for a “mess of pottage”, like H.W. Bush and his “no new taxes” broken pledge.

So right now, everybody should think up a list of 10 “bullet points”, one short sentence in length, that would be their ideal conservative platform.

Importantly, it won’t include everything. But 10 important things that Republicans and conservatives truly want.

This is the way to win the election.

[Gay State Conservative]

think,sturdy = thick,sturdy

[ladyjane]

Is Jindal a natural born citizen?

[presently no screen name]

Think of it as a Contract With America,.....This is the way to win the election.

NEWT lost the election because money, evil and stupidity reigned. Courtesy of Rove/Romney and all it's ilk with their 'anyone but Newt' and the stupid weak-minded voters fell for it.

[shelterguy]

“”Is Jindal a natural born citizen?”””

YOU ARE A RACIST!!!!!! /s

[Rich21IE]

Jindal’s political career is probably over IMHO. He’s not Amish, he’s not Hispanic, and he’s not a Lesbian Feminist.

[SeekAndFind]

But doesn’t his minority ethnicity count for something?

[SeekAndFind]

RE: Is Jindal a natural born citizen?

I knew this would be brought up somehow.

I expect this question/debate to be brought up with Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz as well.

[Wonder Warthog]

"Is Jindal a natural born citizen?"

It depends on which definition you accept. He was certainly born here, but as I recall, neither of his parents had been granted citizenship yet at the time of the birth. So according to one view, he is. But according to another, he is not.

[Rich21IE]

Wrong type.

[SeekAndFind]

RE: Natural Born

In reality, we should be concerned with the original intent of the framers.

In reality, since Obama is now president and most people don’t give a d**m about it, Jindal should be eligible.

The sad fact is the “natural born” clause is now being ignored.

[SeekAndFind]

RE: Wrong type.

Well, that leaves... Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Susanna Martinez and Tim Scott.

They’re all the right type.

[RedHeeler]

Good grief. Yeah, Gov. Jindal is the ticket.

[Wonder Warthog]

"In reality, we should be concerned with the original intent of the framers.....the sad fact is the “natural born” clause is now being ignored."

Oh, I agree with you completely. I'm just pointing out the reality of the situation.