Nate Silver: With Popularity Fading at Home, Is Bobby Jindal the New Mitt Romney?

New York Times ^ | 04/10/2013 | Nate Silver

[SeekAndFind]

Monday’s article on the nation’s least popular governors did not include Gov. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, because he is not up for re-election in 2014. (Louisiana’s next gubernatorial election will be in 2015, and Mr. Jindal will not be eligible, having served two consecutive terms.) But recent surveys suggest that Mr. Jindal has become very unpopular in his home state amid a series of battles on fiscal policy. A March poll from Southern Media & Opinion Research put Mr. Jindal’s approval rating at just 38 percent, against 60 percent disapproval. His numbers had been similarly poor in a February survey by Public Policy Polling.

Some national political commentators are treating the news as being self-evidently injurious to Mr. Jindal’s chances of capturing the Republican presidential nomination in 2016. Obviously, Mr. Jindal has plenty of time to turn around his image in Louisiana. But if he doesn’t, would Republicans really consider nominating someone who is so deeply unpopular among his own constituents?

Actually, you don’t have to go back very far to find a precedent for when Republicans did exactly that. Their nominee last year, Mitt Romney, was very unpopular among Massachusetts voters by the time he finished his single term as governor in 2006.

The chart below tracks Mr. Romney’s approval and favorability ratings during his term, based on data from PollingReport.com. Mr. Romney was reasonably popular throughout most of his tenure (as Mr. Jindal has been). But Mr. Romney numbers declined once he began to reposition himself as a candidate for national office (for instance, in gradually shifting his stance on abortion and contraception toward the right).

[so_real]

I expect this question/debate to be brought up with Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz as well.

As it should be. Either the Constitution matters, or it doesn't. We who feel it does should stand firm on it and not bend in the wind when it suits us (like the RINO's do). Limp wristed Supreme Court Justices who just can't bring themselves to address Constitutional matters should be replaced, not appeased.

[SoCal Pubbie]

Nate Silver DOESN’T POLL ANYBODY. He’s a statistician and analyst who makes predictions based on data from others, including polling by major polling companies.

[TomGuy]

I don't care who is most popular, I want to find who is the best choice for the next president.
Don't follow the majority, the majority is often wrong, especially when they follow poll results.

LOL

So true. Recall the number of 'frontrunners' in 2012. Nearly every 2-4 weeks, it was a new one. And TOO many on FR jumped on the popularity bandwagons, disregarding any qualifications and/or true potential at actually winning the general election.

The sad thing is that the 2012 line up was even worse than the 2008 starting gate.

Regrettably, many of those 'frontrunners' are hinting at 2016. They couldn't even beat the guy who couldn't beat the guy who couldn't beat Obama in 2008. So, in 2016 they will be the ones who couldn't beat the buy who couldn't beat Obama in 2012.

Nearly a dozen have already hinted on 2016, and not a one of them sends a thrill up my leg. Already, 2016 is looking like another massive GOP disaster, a throwaway to the Dems.

[stevecmd]

I agree...and hope he puts Ras’ in his dust!!

[TNoldman]

NO.

[Rich21IE]

Hmmmm, my hunch is they’ll be disabled by the MSM as sell-outs or not “really” Hispanic or as being likened to Uncle Toms.

Thems what control the MSM and National Propaganda Radio control all.