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Why Russia Will Almost Certainly Back Down In Syria
Business Insider ^ | June 13, 2013 | Geoffrey Ingersoll

Posted on 06/15/2013 8:58:50 AM PDT by lbryce

Russia's spokesman for international cooperation in fighting terrorism Alexander Zmeyovsky said that Russia is "gravely concerned" about U.S. reports of Assad's chemical weapons use in Syria, according to The Voice Of Russia.

Earlier today, the Obama administration advised Moscow that it should "pull its support" from the Assad regime.

As we've already reported, there are Russian troops in Syria, and should a fight take place, those troops would be in harm's way.

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; Foreign Affairs; Government; Israel; News/Current Events; Russia; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: alexanderzmeyovsky; israel; lebanon; obama; rebels; russia; syria; turkey; waronterror
Russia backing down on Syria would be a geopolitical bonanza of monumental proportions, benefits almost too good to be true.

Russia relinquishing its support for Syria will certainly have Assad's regime being relegated to the dustbin of history, going into oblivion the same way of its predecessor patron sugar-daddy the USSR. Syria under Assad has been the linchpin in which Iran has been able to interfere, exploit the political fragility of Lebanon, gain power and influence to exponential effect far beyond its otherwise relatively weak hand, position.

Iran's greatest fear is the loss of Assad, that puts into grave danger the hold on power of Iran's proxy leader Nasrallah and his Party of God Hizbullah have in Lebanon, and are putting in far more resources, manpower to prevent Assad's regime from falling.

If, when Assad is vanquished along with it goes Iran's extensive power and influence it has spent decades and untold finances to create. Within Lebanon a great grudge match is brewing with Lebanon's Sunni population having many scores to settle against Nasrallah, Shiites,that the falling of Assad would exacerbate for Iran and Hizbullah.

1 posted on 06/15/2013 8:58:50 AM PDT by lbryce
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To: lbryce

Horrible, Al Qaeda controlling Syria would be a nightmare and having US backing would be insane.


2 posted on 06/15/2013 9:00:25 AM PDT by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
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To: lbryce

Let the Sunnis and Shiites kill each other, as they’ve done for a thousand years.


3 posted on 06/15/2013 9:04:11 AM PDT by txrefugee
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To: lbryce

For most middle eastern countries, a dictator is preferable than what will follow. That is, from our perspective. If Assad goes, you’ll have elections, something like the Super Muslim Bros. (Muslim Brotherhood) will take over, and you’ll have no more real elections.

George Washington and Thomas Jefferson aren’t waiting in the wings out there to ride in and save the day.


4 posted on 06/15/2013 9:08:18 AM PDT by TheGipperWasRight
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To: lbryce

Anyone who thinks Russia will back down is not living in the real world.


5 posted on 06/15/2013 9:09:09 AM PDT by Innovative ("Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing." -- Vince Lombardi)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

Thanks lbryce.
Russia's spokesman for international cooperation in fighting terrorism Alexander Zmeyovsky said that Russia is "gravely concerned" about U.S. reports of Assad's chemical weapons use in Syria... there are Russian troops in Syria, and should a fight take place, those troops would be in harm's way.
Al-Qaeda won't take them on until Assad is gone. Russia's move right now is to undermine the gov't of Turkey -- you can see it in the agitprop that has been bubbling up, and btw, well played.


6 posted on 06/15/2013 9:09:24 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (McCain or Romney would have been worse, if you're a dumb ass.)
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To: lbryce

Yeah, I am so sure Putin is terrified of obama.


7 posted on 06/15/2013 9:11:38 AM PDT by null and void (Republicans create the tools of opression, and the democrats gleefully use them!)
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To: lbryce
Russia back down from what? They're Syria's ally.

And we want to help alqueda.

How'd that work out in Libya...and Egypt...and Afghanistan????????????

8 posted on 06/15/2013 9:13:34 AM PDT by Sacajaweau
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To: GeronL

The caliphate continues, under 0muslim.


9 posted on 06/15/2013 9:15:21 AM PDT by carriage_hill (Guns kill people, pencils misspell words, cars drive drunk & spoons make you fat.)
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To: lbryce

Russia is not going to back down from its support of Assad in Syria. period!!! They have successfully backed Obama into a corner that he cannot escape from!!! The Russians, Iranians, Chinese, Libyans, Lebanese, Hesbollah have beaten Obama because of his weakness and lack of leadership. Putin and the Chinese are laughing about what a loser Obama is. They cannot believe the greatest nation in the world, has elected an absolute moron to be its leader!!! Obama is more in tune with his beloved Muslim Brotherhood, then he is worried about the security of the USA. In Syria, the Arabs and Muslims are fighting each other. The USA does not have a dog in this fight. We lose, whatever course we take, because of Obama’s inaction fifteen months ago!!! If Obama acts, only more military and innocent Americans will be murdered or slaughtered in the streets of Syria!!! Obama needs to thrown out of office by resignation or impeachment!!!


10 posted on 06/15/2013 9:17:54 AM PDT by JLAGRAYFOX ( My only objective is to defeat and destroy Obama & his Democrat Party, politically!!!)
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To: lbryce
Wishful thinking...


11 posted on 06/15/2013 9:18:37 AM PDT by darkwing104 (Let's get dangerous)
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To: Innovative

Betting on Russia backing down....is a BIG bet!

I sure would feel better about it if we had a poker
player in the White house instead of Ochutes and Ladders.


12 posted on 06/15/2013 9:28:52 AM PDT by tet68 ( " We would not die in that man's company, that fears his fellowship to die with us...." Henry V.)
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To: Innovative

“Anyone who thinks Russia will back down is not living in the real world.”

The power vacuum left by a Russian exit would cause the war to accelerate as smaller powers and groups jostled for their desired outcome.

Having said that, I don’t believe for a moment that Putin will back down or away. Why should he?


13 posted on 06/15/2013 9:29:15 AM PDT by Gen.Blather
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To: Innovative

I agree... Putin would love to kill Americans... we have no business in Syria... none at all.

LLS


14 posted on 06/15/2013 9:34:21 AM PDT by LibLieSlayer (FROM MY COLD, DEAD HANDS!)
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To: lbryce

Russia’s only Mediterranean Naval Base is located in Syria.

Probably one of the reasons they were looking at bailing out Cyprus.


15 posted on 06/15/2013 9:36:52 AM PDT by dfwgator
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To: lbryce

What is this author saying ?

That these ‘games’ the politicians play are merely efforts to ensure the public keeps them in positions of power and wealth?

That while a major war between the superpowers is NEVER considered nor authorized by either side, that limited warfare support (weapons and manpower) is financially/politically enhancing?

Remember this conversation ?


“What was he going to say?”


“The truth. That nothing, no matter how horrible, ever really happens without the approval of the government. Over there, and here. The problem isn’t the doing. It’s the people in power having to admit that they knew.

The prisoners are tortured at Abu Ghraib, and only the underlings go to jail. Their bosses knew. We know their bosses knew. But you don’t say it.”


“What exactly happened in Africa?”


“Somehow the villagers didn’t think that an oil pipeline was a good enough reason to move their village to a place where the spirit gods didn’t exist.”


“Drink? So they asked them all nicely to move and when they didn’t, they just killed them all?”


“No. They didn’t ask. They just killed them. All. So the next village won’t need to be asked. They’ll just go.

There is a mass grave with 400 bodies, men, women, children, under the oil pumping station 10 kilometres over the Eritrean border.

You should know. You covered the retreat of the contractors who did the job. Of course, you weren’t supposed to survive that, either.”



16 posted on 06/15/2013 9:38:20 AM PDT by UCANSEE2 (The monsters are due on Maple Street)
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To: GeronL
Al Qaeda controlling Syria would be a nightmare and having US backing would be insane.

And they say the modern world has no 'true' prophets.


17 posted on 06/15/2013 9:42:08 AM PDT by UCANSEE2 (The monsters are due on Maple Street)
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To: Innovative
Anyone who thinks Russia will back down is not living in the real world.

The REAL WORLD ?

The only reason Russia and the US would have a 'war' declared between the two is if the two Presidents agreed it was necessary for them to keep their positions of power and wealth, and the corporations that control them could profit more off the arms sales and dead bodies.

Right now, Obama is the only one in a shaky position, so the 'war' will be kept limited and the arms dealers are still making tons of money (literally, tons of money) so they're pretty happy.

18 posted on 06/15/2013 9:48:02 AM PDT by UCANSEE2 (The monsters are due on Maple Street)
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To: Sacajaweau
How'd that work out in Libya...and Egypt...and Afghanistan

"Just as I planned."


19 posted on 06/15/2013 9:50:06 AM PDT by UCANSEE2 (The monsters are due on Maple Street)
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To: LibLieSlayer

Putin has no desire to kill Americans. Geez....


20 posted on 06/15/2013 9:54:26 AM PDT by Sacajaweau
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To: darkwing104
EXCLUSIVE: Never before seen photo from inside White House of meeting between Valerie Jarrett and Barack Obama.


21 posted on 06/15/2013 10:01:01 AM PDT by UCANSEE2 (The monsters are due on Maple Street)
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To: lbryce

It’s better for Assad to stay in power. Better Assad than the Muzzie Brotherhood leading to a revived Ottoman Empire.


22 posted on 06/15/2013 10:08:20 AM PDT by istandwithsarah (Game on!)
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To: Innovative
Russia under Putin? Back down? No freaking way.

Plus Putin has to keep those arms factories running.

23 posted on 06/15/2013 10:11:51 AM PDT by MinorityRepublican
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To: lbryce

Russia has a spotty history in supporting their allies. Kosovo was a good example of them basically turning tail and running after a symbolic “flipping the bird” at NATO/US by beating them to the Airport. I think that Iran has gotten more support from China than Russian as far as the economic embargo that the US set up as well.

Part of the problem is that the Russian don’t have near the military power that they used to have so going up against the US and or Europeans is not something that they really want to do. That may change here as Syria is important for a number of reasons.

First they are the last of Russia’s allies in that region and the only port that they really have outside of Russia so militarily this is a very strategic country for them.

Second Russia has a strangle hold on Europe for natural gas and one of the main reasons the US and Europe are pushing this war is so that they can build a Natural Gas pipeline into Europe and basically blunt the Russian monopoly. So this represents a very real threat to the Russian economy and very powerful oligarchs.

Third Putin has been building up the military and has dreams of resurrecting the super power status of the old USSR. This may be the ideal place for him to give the US a bloody nose. He’s been treating the US representative like s%^t and dissing Obama, Kerry and most other US politicians to try and see what their reaction would be. Kind of like a bully that tests to see if his victim will fight back before really going full Monty on him.

Fourthly the US leadership has been very weak, Obama and his practically all female staff just don’t seem to have the testosterone needed to appear even remotely credible here which suggests that they will cut and run at the first sign of serious resistance. If Russia via Syria hit the US hard enough to generate significant US death toll they may believe that the US would bolt (and I think that would be true). This kind of weakness displayed is just inviting someone like Putin to see how far he can push this.


24 posted on 06/15/2013 10:15:27 AM PDT by trapped_in_LA
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To: trapped_in_LA

If we’re on board with supplying natural gas to Europe, why hasn’t the administation permitted the new facilities on the eascoast and the Gulf of Mexico that are waiting for approval. Granted that would be a nightmare for Russia as demonstrated by the recent Ukrainian scam persumably by Russia.


25 posted on 06/15/2013 10:22:11 AM PDT by meatloaf
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To: Sacajaweau

I pray we stay out of Syria and Putin is still a commie and all rooskie commies want to kill Americans. Sheesh.

LLS


26 posted on 06/15/2013 11:32:35 AM PDT by LibLieSlayer (FROM MY COLD, DEAD HANDS!)
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To: lbryce
Russia will back down? Really? With ex-KGB operative Vladimir Putin against a former Chicago-based community organizer as POTUS? You gotta be nuts. Obama is so out of his depth here (or is it Valerie Jarrett, Barry's real brain)?
27 posted on 06/15/2013 11:55:54 AM PDT by MasterGunner01
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To: lbryce

We need to sit this one out. A secular Syria is better than an Isamist Syria. Its all bad but I think Sarah Palin said “let Allah sort it out”.


28 posted on 06/15/2013 12:20:19 PM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped.)
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To: UCANSEE2

“The Shooter”. I can probably recite that whole movie. I always thought the senator from Montana was deliberately cast to mimic john mccain. It DID bother me some to see memphis wearing a che tee shirt though.


29 posted on 06/15/2013 1:30:35 PM PDT by MestaMachine (My caps work. You gotta earn them.)
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To: SunkenCiv

Russia is “gravely concerned” about U.S. reports of Assad’s chemical weapons use in Syria....#1 I doubt Russia puts ANY stock in what Obama says. #2, they MAY be gravely concerned because those chemicals were shipped from Iraq at the beginning of Desert Shield in a truck convoy which was shielded by Russian vehicles (remember the international protest lodged at the beginning about US troops shooting the hell out of Russian diplomat vehicles, hmmm?)#3. Russia don’t give a shiite about ‘Troops’ caught in the middle.


30 posted on 06/15/2013 1:40:07 PM PDT by Safetgiver ( Islam makes barbarism look genteel.)
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To: MestaMachine
It DID bother me some to see memphis wearing a che tee shirt though.

You wear the outfit the director tells you to wear.

31 posted on 06/15/2013 1:41:17 PM PDT by UCANSEE2 (The monsters are due on Maple Street)
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To: UCANSEE2

I know...which is why it bothered me.


32 posted on 06/15/2013 1:46:49 PM PDT by MestaMachine (My caps work. You gotta earn them.)
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To: Innovative

If I was Russia—I wouldn’t back down. America is a paper tiger under Obama—his war is un-popular. A few bodies and the USA will call it quits. We have no really good idea what we are doing there? If Russia can win the Civil War for Assad they will enhance their standing in the Arab world. This isn’t the old USSR—Its Putin’s Russian Empire. We are not the USA of JFK or even Nixon. We have lost the moral high ground.


33 posted on 06/15/2013 1:53:35 PM PDT by Forward the Light Brigade (Into the Jaws of H*ll)
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To: lbryce
.


the guy who wrote this is a "complete idiot".

clearly, he's never been to singapore ... with putin ...


.
34 posted on 06/15/2013 2:11:56 PM PDT by Patton@Bastogne (Swine Piss be upon Obama, and his Child-Rapist False Prophet Mohammed)
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To: SunkenCiv
Russia's move right now is to undermine the gov't of Turkey -- you can see it in the agitprop that has been bubbling up, and btw, well played.

100% correct.

In some ways, this is a rerun of the Crimean War.

35 posted on 06/15/2013 2:57:29 PM PDT by BlackVeil
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To: BlackVeil

The Russian struggles against the Turks, oddly enough, included the participation of John Paul Jones, in the 1780s, but reach back a couple more centuries, the culmination of Ivan IV (the Terrible)’s campaign against the Tatars (a Turkish people), destruction of their capital Kazan, and conquest of the Crimea. The Tatars who survived were brought under nominal Russian rule, but were permitted to operate their own traditional courts. And the Tatars had been extracting tribute from the Russian kingdoms for a few hundred years prior to that.

In the 19th c Otto von Bismarck assembled the modern German nation-state, and created a treaty system that diplomatically isolated France and kept the peace in western Europe for more than forty years (no UN, no satellite verification), and in the east created an alliance which cooperated in the dismantling of the crumbling Ottoman Empire.

http://www.xenophon-mil.org/ruscity/volga/kazan/kazsiege.htm
http://www.history.navy.mil/bios/jones_jp_conrad.htm

[snip] While in Denmark, he was offered a commission in the Imperial Russian Navy. Attracted by the opportunity to command a fleet and hoping that his new title would impress Congress enough to award him with an admiral’s rank, and attracted by the prospect of adventure and glory, Jones accepted the offer and set out for St. Petersburg. Sent to the Black Sea, the new rear admiral believed he would command all the naval forces in that theater in their operations against the Turks, but quickly learned that three other rear admirals served in the command and each jealously guarded his powers and privileges. Jones was instrumental in the Russian navy victory at Liman, but another admiral, Prince Nassau-Siegen, a friend of Empress Catherine II’s key advisor, Gregorii Aleksandrovich, Prince Potemkin, successfully usurped all the credit for the victory. Jones was recalled to Moscow and spent several months making plans until a trumped-up sex charge linking Jones and a young girl scandalized the empress and ended any chances for his restoration to command. [/snip]


36 posted on 06/15/2013 4:36:52 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (McCain or Romney would have been worse, if you're a dumb ass.)
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http://www.fordham.edu/halsall/source/tartars.html


37 posted on 06/15/2013 4:39:26 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (McCain or Romney would have been worse, if you're a dumb ass.)
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To: trapped_in_LA

Well said. Russia’s following the script, and digging in deeper. This is their last ally in the Middle East, and they’re going to stick as long as they can without suffering outright defeat. They will have to leave, and Assad will fall. They should set up an enclave for the fairly numerous mixed marriage couples (Syrians married to Russians) and their families, against the need to evacuate them, but I doubt Assad will permit that, for his own security. In Afghanistan the Russians set up a puppet, then decided it was the wrong puppet for the job, and sent commandos in to kill their first puppet. Months ago, during the rumors that Assad had either narrowly missed assassination or had been assassinated, my guess was that the Russians had tried to kill him off. The earlier attack that killed everyone at a meeting of a bunch of high-ranking Assad regime thugs never got attributed to any of the rebel groups, so that was probably a Russian op to get rid of Assad and his inner circle — but Assad missed that meeting.


38 posted on 06/15/2013 4:48:06 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (McCain or Romney would have been worse, if you're a dumb ass.)
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To: Safetgiver

Well put.


39 posted on 06/15/2013 5:24:53 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (McCain or Romney would have been worse, if you're a dumb ass.)
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