So, let's say that Trey Gowdy jumps into the race, which would absolutely thrill conservatives. I suspect that among GOP voters, he'd outpoll Graham 2:1..But the Democrats will encourage ALL their voters, especially blacks.. to vote for Graham in the GOP primary..and he'll likely get a majority of independents as well. Plus, Graham has $5 mill in his campaign chest that he can toss into the primary.
I'm not saying it can't be done..just that the math is real difficult. And this assumes that there's only one primary opponent. If he has 2, or more, it makes it far easier for him. And Gowdy would have to give up his very safe House seat to run for the Senate.
Personally, I think there will have to be a legitimate early poll that shows Graham in deep trouble.. then anything could happen.
FYI..here's a link to a great piece by Nancy Mace on why Graham needs to go. I think she'll announce next month at the Red State Gathering in August ( same forum where Perry announced he was running for president )
Got it, Thanks a lot!