The GOP and Hispanics: What the Future Holds

Real Clear Politics ^ | June 28, 2013 | Sean Trende

[neverdem]

This is the third part in a series exploring whether the GOP really needs to pass a comprehensive immigration reform package to continue winning elections (Parts one and two are here). It's worth re-emphasizing that this series isn’t intended to offer a policy prescription. The purpose here is to challenge the almost universally unchallenged argument that the only real debate is whether the GOP will die a slow death or a fast one if it doesn’t back the bill.

What really motivates Hispanic voters?

One of the assumptions lurking behind the immigration debate is that Hispanics spurn Republicans in large part due to identity politics, with immigration as a primary motivator. But there’s usually precious little data offered up to buttress this assumption, aside from the occasional generic poll question of “How important is issue this to you?”

But dig down. When Pew asked Hispanic voters what the most important issue was in 2012, immigration ranked near the bottom of the list. At the top of the list was jobs, just as it was for whites. In the 2008 exits (the last presidential election for which we have full data), a majority of Hispanic respondents told the exit pollsters that they didn’t care much about immigration (regardless of how they ultimately voted), or that they cared a lot (but voted Republican).

Many point to George W. Bush’s performance with Hispanic voters, especially compared to Mitt Romney’s, as evidence that the immigration reform issue is crucial. After all, Bush was strongly in favor of a path to citizenship, and exit polls show him winning 45 percent of the Hispanic vote (though many analysts believe this likely overestimates his share of the Hispanic vote). But there are two counters here.

First, consider a different Bush, George H.W. He had many of the...

[Tzimisce]

The GOP has NEVER gotten a majority of the Hispanic vote.

If the GOP tried as hard to get the Conservative vote as it tries to get the Mexican vote, they might be winning a lot more elections...