Flipping the Senate: With Democrats on the defensive, the GOP has a chance to recapture the Senate

National Review ^ | 07/09/2013 | Michael Barone

[Viennacon]

The NJ seat was gone whatever happened. Unless maybe Whorealdo runs (NJ is weird like that), but I don’t want his ass in the senate anyway,
Collins will stay seated I think.
McConnell will retain his seat, because his opponent is a joke. She was so dysfunctional, when she made her announcement to run, they had to use old banners from when she was running for treasurer!
Virginia is going to vote for Warner. The state’s a basket case.

Meanwhile, I think Hagan could be taken out easily. Not with Tillis, who is a corrupt big government RINO. Greg Brannon, the doctor, is a very strong orator, and my vote would be for him.
I thought we had a candidate in Colorado. Some guy with a big mustache?
New Hampshire? No chance. Sununu could try again, but the state is full of Massholes, most of whom just ended up stuck there after various road accidents.

We desperately need a candidate in Iowa. Great opportunity for a backup gain. Don’t know much about Land in Michigan, originally I was hoping Ben Carson would run for it. That would be interesting.

To run our royal flush on the senate would be this way

North Dakota - Mike Rounds (pretty moderate, but nobody would defeat him in a primary. He’s a Dan Coats type)

West Virginia - Pat McGeehan (I think this state is safe enough to take a gamble. Capito is too much of a Rove-operative)

Arkansas - Tom Cotton (no doubts here)

Louisiana - Bill Cassidy (would be willing to go with someone else, but he’s the only one I know of right now)

Alaska - Mead Treadwell, Palin if she runs (I think Miller’s time has passed)

North Carolina - Greg Brannon (potentially the next Mike Lee)

This way, we have Iowa and Michigan as potential backups, with Colorado as a long shot

I won’t even touch Montana. Too much of a wild card, especially since they re-elected Buzz Lightyear last time round. Former rat governor Schweitzer would likely win this race in a walk, but Racicot would be our best hope.

I also can’t stress enough, replacing RINOS is just as crucial. Great opportunities in SC, GA, WY, MS, TN and NE to nominate solid conservatives.

[Pilsner]

They will defend those bad candidates beyond all logic, including the fact that the candidates lost in otherwise Red States because of those peculiar views.

And they never will admit that at least two of them, Angle in NV in 2010 and Akin in MO in 2012, were hand picked by Harry Reid. The Democrats spent money in the Republican Primary to nominate the weakest Republican candidate.

Until we sole that problem, and admitting it exists is the first step, we are going to continue to give away seats in the Senate.

[Impy]

In Iowa there’s a former Grassley Chief of Staff and a former US Attorney running. Decent 2nd tier guys but hardly inspiring.

[Osage Orange]

"The great irony of this travesty is that the high priests of this elite progressive ruling class actually make out that they believe in “social justice” and a “fair shake" when it is their own programs that keep people down and unfairly reward themselves with unearned riches."

M. Myers

[wildbill]

People used to rant about the political bosses of both parties who met in backrooms and decided who ran for elections and therefore the fate of their party.

They often selected politicians who then owed them favors when they were elected.

The conclusion of political reformers was that these backroom pols were a bad thing for parties and the Republic.

But what reformers always overlooked was that these guys were pragmatic pros. They were all about winning elections, not being right on principles. They knew politics and more importantly,they knew the people who wanted to run, their follies and their hidden flaws that might be exposed and prevent them from winning. They weren’t about to support some crazy that might say something that would lose the election.

The extremes of both parties have never developed any political pros, although you could argue that the left now has some political operatives who have actually elected a Kenyan Muslim Socialist to the Presidency. :-)

[BillyBoy]

>> Incumbent Hagan won the seat in 2008 largely because of slip-ups by Republican Elizabeth Dole <<

>> Dole changed her mind and decided at the last minute that she really didn't want to run, so she threw the election. That, and anyone with a (D) next to their name got elected in 2008. <<

I would argue the race was Dole's to lose and she lost it. She was a well-known, powerful incumbent holding office in a state that is very GOP friendly on the federal level (North Carolina). Numerous other GOP incumbents in Bush states held onto to seats in 2008... Pat Roberts, Mitch McConnell, Thad Cochran, Saxby Chambliss, Lamar! Alexander, Mike Enzi, Lindsey Graham, John Cornyn, and Jim Inhofe. (plus RINO Susan Collins easily won re-election as Obama carried her home state comfortably) We also won open Senate races with Jim Risch, Roger Wicker, Mike Johanns, and John Barrasso.

The GOP establishment loves to demonize conservative insurgents for shooting themselves in the foot and losing races that they should have won (Mourdock, Akin, etc.), but they will NEVER accept blame when one of their own steps in it.

I think the final nail in the coffin was when Dole ran the "Godless" ad against then-unknown Kay Hagan and it backfired. The media had a field day criticizing Dole for using a Hagan sound-alike to say "There is no God!" in the ad, and her approval ratings plunged. Losing an obscure RAT state legislator in North Carolina was really pathetic.

[AuH2ORepublican]

For most of his life, Barone was a Democrat, and he may still consider himself one, but he certainly is conservative nowadays. But, more to the point, he’s a straight shooter and knows more about U.S. politics than anyone alive (even though he was wrong about his 2012 election predictions, as were a lot of us).

[highball]

I have great confidence that once again the Stupid Party will run the usual losers to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory.

I really, really wish that I could disagree with you. We should have made pickups last time, and even more pickups in 2010, but our candidates handed seats to the Dems.

[Impy]

Liddy Dole’s “godless ad” came very late in the race, Hagen was already leading in the polls. It certainly didn’t help though.

Horrible campaign by Dole.

[Impy]

It’s wouldn’t make much sense for him to still consider himself a democrat, remaining conservative democrats are mostly of the politically illiterate, dim bulb variety.

[AuH2ORepublican]

I believe that Bob Novak was a registered Democrat until he died.

[Impy]

He was an odd duck, Novak.

According to “Human Events” he just wanted to be able to vote in rat primaries in DC. Understandable.

[DakotaGator]

Indeed. The Stupid Party just doesn't get it. Stand up for America and they win. Be RINOs and they lose.

Maybe all Republicans seeking office should be required to pass a test on the Declaration of Independence, the Constitution, and particularly the Bill of Rights before they're allowed to run as a Republican.

[CPT Clay]

We also need to Prioritize those seats. Ie you get more bang for your buck is small inexpensive media markets. Also “upgrading” has its risk as well. Ask the folks in Indiana how that worked out for them..

So, using this criteria, Lets prioritize the Upgrades:

WY: inexpensive media, Good replacement check and check.

TN: Way more costly, Lamar! is a RINO, some good choices are available (Marsha Blackburn)

SC: Expensive, Don’t forget, Tim Scott also will be on the ballot. Anybody else see a problem with explaining that this republican good, that republican bad to a low information voter?

GA: Not red enough to assure winner in bloody primary takes general.

TX: Too expensive, money better utilized elsewhere.
“Take Backs”
Added Criteria: Open seats are easier to take.
How Republican is the electorate, margin in last 3 presidentals is a good rule of thumb.

SD: Inexpensive Media, Open Seat, Very Republican in Statewide races, poor candidate selection by dems.

MT: Open, inexpensive media, Most formidable dem chose not to run.
WV: Open, Reasonable media expense, Poor candidate selection on Dem. ( Is Capito just another RINO?)

AK: Begitch has baggage, Imagine the shear size of Alaska makes media expensive. Never voted for a budget in 6 yrs.

LA: Landrieu has always under performed. Her state lost 400k mostly dem voters after Katrina. Media is reasonalby priced. Please lets pick this up!! Very favorable Demographics.

AR: Pryor is vulnerable to the right candidate. Media is reasonable, more bang for the buck. Has not voted on a budget in 6yrs in majority. Favorable demographics.

NC: Hagan has not done anything for the state. Demographics and media are not as favorable as previous states; Has not voted for a budget in six years of the majority. Rubber Stamp for Harry Reid.

IA: Open, reasonable cost. Even Demographics.
MI: Open, expensive, fair demographics for right candidate.
CO: Udall is despicable, Media more than average cost, has not voted for a budget in 6 yrs of majority. Good place to undo OFA.

In Conclusion, My rankings in priority would be:
1: SD
2: MT
3: WV
4: LA
5: AK
6: AR
7: WY
8: IA
9: NC
10: TN
11: CO
12: MI
13: SC
14: MN I would really love to see Franken defeated.
15: GA

Thanks for Playing, CPT Clay

[Perdogg]

If Cotton runs, then AR will fall to GOP.

[CPT Clay]

Kay will have no presidential coattails this time. Go Carolina! #NuthinCouldBeFiner

[CPT Clay]

How about most of the Eighty Million Gun Owners?

#JustSayin

[CPT Clay]

Powerful words: North Carolina - Greg Brannon (potentially the next Mike Lee)

[CPT Clay]

I also can’t stress enough, replacing RINOS is just as crucial. Great opportunities in SC, GA, WY, MS, TN and NE to nominate solid conservatives..

Pick ONE

[CPT Clay]

Thought he was happy w his seat on Ways and Means.