Posted on 08/09/2013 6:00:01 AM PDT by afraidfortherepublic
Part of the conservative appeal for the 2012 Republican vice-presidential nominee Congressman Paul Ryan (R-WI) was that he could "do math." He was a "numbers guy." Similarly, former Governor Jeb Bush is from Florida, and should understand very well its electoral demographics -- particularly since his brother George won the 2000 election by a bare margin due solely to what happened in the Sunshine State. These points make it all the more bizarre that both Ryan and Bush would support immigration reform. This type of legislation would sentence the GOP to near permanent electoral oblivion unless the party adopted very liberal positions to match up with the resulting illegal alien infused left-wing demographic shift.
Slate.com has published the following state-by-state map of the estimated American illegal immigrant population, based on data produced by the Pew Hispanic Center. While they are spread out across the nation, illegal immigrants are especially concentrated in Nevada, California, Texas, New Jersey, and Florida, where they accounted for an astonishingly high 7.2%, 6.8%, 6.7%, 6.2%, and 4.5% of these states' total populations in 2010.
California and New Jersey are already Democratic strongholds. Texas is safely Republican (for now). Nevada and Florida remain battlegrounds, as do a number of other key states.
The margins of victory in Florida since 2000 have been 537 votes/0.01% (2000; Bush), 380,978/5.01% (2004; Bush), 236,148/2.81% (2008; Obama), and 74,309/0.88% (2012; Obama). Florida has an estimated 825,000 illegal immigrants. Assuming that these illegal immigrants have a similar age demographic to the general American population (i.e., 76.5% aged 18 and over), that about 60% of these individuals will vote (consistent with the general population), and that 80% will vote Democratic (the same percentage as in the 2008 and 2012 elections for minority voters), legalizing these illegal aliens will add a 227,000-vote Democratic margin...
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
..indeed...interior Deep South and interior West...SC, GA, AL,MS, AR, MO,TN,KY,ID,WY,UT, N.DK. S.DK,NE,KN,OK...I’m too lazy to the do the electoral college math on this but it’s somewhere in the mid 150’s, I believe...at which point, we concentrate solely on state and local politics...
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Yes, about 150-160 EC votes; and at that point, the GOP simply cannot win at the national level when it comes to Presidential elections at least, so they’ll concentrate, as you said, on state and local politics. They’ll be confined with the Deep South and Intermountain Western states as their power base.
The loss of Texas in any event would represent a dramatic electoral shift against the GOP; how the national party leadership would respond to such an event is beyond my powers of prognostication.
I think this is an overstatement. The beauty of a two party system is that sooner or later, people get so dissatisfied with the status quo and give the other guys a shot.
The thing is, as time goes on, those lucid spells become more infrequent.
The question then becomes: would this be a bad thing?
Considering how the Republican Party is at the national level — I think this would be one of the few silver linings. What use is a party that does absolutely nothing that furthers its party-planks? (And at the national level, that is an apt description.)
The two party system does not guarantee variety in political philosophies. I would argue that with the money and power now in the hands of a political establishment, a mere two-party system guarantees a homogeneous approach -- one which supports the political establishment and only allows vague shades of difference.
I want a third party.
I second the sentiment — the selection of Romney was, to me, a big flag that there is no difference in the Republican and Democrat parties (at least on the national level), and that's why I voted for Gary Johnson.
One thing that could happen is that, as you said, people become dissatisfied with the status-quo over the long term; I could see the emergence of a new national party at some point. Much as the modern Republicans replaced the Whig Party, so another party could replace the Republicans.
There’s been talk in a good many circles of the need for a third party, as both the existing parties are not wholly representative of a broad segment of the overall electorate.
He couldn't compete with the cookie cutter outfits which hired illegals and paid cash under the table. Of course, they eventually lost their jobs as well when the economy went in the crapper. I suspect Georgia and North Carolina both pay better unempoloyment and welfare benefits than South Carolina.
Texas will go blue soon.
I have family from Texas. They have been there since my great grandfather’s day.
They fled south Texas for Nebraska a few years. They were one of the few remaining non Hispanics in the area. This was a place where they have farmed for a hundred years.
Revolt is coming.
Texas will probably go blue in the not-too-distant future; I’d say by 2024, 2028 at the latest....maybe sooner, but I’d say 2024 is a safe guess.
There is an important proviso to the Republicans about Mexican-Americans. This is, that they are *not* black, nor do they behave like blacks.
That is, you can’t just go in and promise them huge amounts of welfare, benefits, and other free stuff, and get their vote. They got decades of that in Mexico, so are very cynical about it.
Instead, your best pitch to Mexican-Americans is the same for non-Hispanic whites.
Jobs, lower taxes, conservative social policies, treating them equally *before the law*, really hit home with them.
Even the subject of immigration from Mexico gets a broad spectrum of response. Yes, if they have family there who want to go North, they are in favor of it. However, letting other Mexican citizens in, not so much. Likewise, if they have a split family, some legal, some not, they want the illegals to become Americans.
“So why is it that the state with the highest percentage job growth in the nation and some of the toughest jobs (ever try wrestling with heavy machinery when it is 40 below and the wind is blowing in from the northwest?) has almost zero illegal aliens?”
I remember watching an episode of “Deadliest Catch.” One of the crab boats was approaching the island where their processing facility was. They had to hail the dock in Spanish.
The studies from 2012 (iirc) show that Hispanics #1 issue at the polls, the reason so many voted for Obama, was Obamacare. Not immigration or other lesser issues.
The descendants of the Aztecs, on the other hand, vote for free stuff and seek to do to the non-Aztecs as their forefathers did.
There are, of course, literal descendants of Aztecs who behave more like the legal Hispanics, and vice versa. I'm speaking of the ideological descendants.
If conservatives stayed home in 2012, just wait until 2014.
Time for a million citizen march on dc.
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