Posted on 08/16/2013 6:05:47 AM PDT by Kaslin
"Sire, clear the square with gunfire or abdicate."
That was the message one of his generals gave the young czar Nicholas I in December of 1825, as thousands of civilians and soldiers massed in Senate Square to challenge his claim to the throne.
Nicholas gave the order, the cannons fired, and he and his heirs ruled Russia for another century, until Nicholas II was overthrown, and murdered by Bolsheviks.
Such was the moment Egypt's army faced on Wednesday, with thousands of backers of the Muslim Brotherhood encamped in Cairo, challenging its rule. The slaughter that ensued, 500 dead the first day and thousands wounded, means there is no going back.
The die is cast. The Egyptian army has crossed the Rubicon.
Egypt's generals cannot now hold elections that a coalition of the Brotherhood and Salafis might win. Were that to happen, many of them could wind up like the shah's generals, on trays in the morgue.
So where does Egypt, and where do we go from here?
While we Americans are babbling about a new politics of "inclusiveness," even some of the Twitter-Facebook liberals of Tahrir Square are coming to see Egypt as it is. Us or them.
And the one issue on which Egypt's Muslim militants and Egypt's militarists seem to agree is that the Americans cannot be trusted.
Two years ago, the United States celebrated an Arab Spring that began with the overthrow in Tunis and Cairo of dictators who had been our loyal allies. We then became the champions of free elections in Egypt, as we had been the champions of free elections in Palestine, until Hamas swept the board in Gaza.
When half of Egypt voted for the Brotherhood and a fourth for the more militant Salafis, we accepted the results and pledged to work with President Mohammed Morsi.
But Morsi failed as badly as Hosni Mubarak. So, when millions massed in Cairo's streets to demand Morsi's overthrow, we signaled our approval for a military coup.
Then, when Gen. Abdel Fattah el-Sisi seized power, imprisoned Morsi, jailed Brotherhood leaders and installed a puppet government, we refused to call it a coup.
Secretary of State John Kerry provided the comic relief by assuring us that the Egyptian army was "restoring democracy."
For two years, America has been loyal to no one, and consistent in nothing. Thus, Egypt's soldiers decided to do what they had to do to save their country. And if new elections are likely to produce a regime that threatens their Egypt, they will dump the democratic procedures rather than lose Egypt to the Brotherhood.
They will comply with our wishes to the extent that they do not imperil what the Egyptian army regards as vital. Gen. Sisi either did not believe we would cut off his military aid, or was willing to take that risk when he gave the order to fire on the protesters.
He read the Americans right. What do we do now?
As our interests dictate maintaining the peace between Egypt and Israel, keeping Egypt as an ally against Islamic terrorism, and protecting Christians, we cannot sever ties to the army that runs the country. In these goals, Egypt's military, no matter the brutality with which it behaved on Wednesday against the Brotherhood, is an ally.
But if we were to retain any credibility as the champion of peaceful protest, we had to signal that what was done by Egypt's security forces was done without our approval. President Obama did that by canceling the military exercises with the Egyptian army in Sinai.
Yet Egypt has problems we cannot solve. It is divided between secularists and fundamentalists, whose visions are irreconcilable. It is divided between a middle class and millions of poor for whom neither Mubarak nor Morsi was able to create any measure of prosperity.
Without constant infusions of aid, Egypt, a country whence the tourists and investors alike have fled, cannot create a robust economy until radicalism and extremism are in the past.
Egypt today cannot sustain itself. But America's role as primary foreign aid provider is coming to an end. Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the Gulf states are today sending many times the aid we are sending to Cairo.
Let them take the lead. The fate of Arab peoples is far more tied up in what happens along the Nile than is the fate of America.
While we do not know what will succeed in the Middle East, we do know what has failed. Nation-building in Afghanistan and Iraq has left us bleeding and near bankrupt. Our flipping and flopping in Egypt's turmoil has alienated all sides. Our wars have accomplished what?
Perhaps lowering our profile and shutting up would serve us better. This part of the world will be decades sorting out its future in light of the political, religious, ethnic and ideological forces unleashed by the Arab Spring and the rise of Islamism.
A phrase from the America of a century ago, when Mexico was in turmoil, comes to mind. Why not a period of watchful waiting?
Good thing they got Obama to give them more ammunition to replace what they used on their own citizens.
There is a lot to ponder right there. We often ask, "Would the military fire on citizens?" If they were 100% sure of coming out on top, I think the would. If they thought they might end up on the losing side, then crossing that Rubicon is a terrible gamble.
This essay ought to send the neocons into a purple faced rage.
That useless majority in the HOR should defund all foreign aid. Ohmygosh, I almost forgot...most of those “conservatives” support foreign meddling.
Qatar and the Gulf states are today sending many times the aid we are sending to Cairo.
Pat of course cannot say much here and not be accused of the old canard of anti-semetism. But thankfully the Israelies have interests here and their friends in DC will prevail that Egypt will be stabilized via the military. Otherwise Israel will be a pin cushion for terrorist rockets from the Sinai. The real threat to Israel and decent non-radicalized mooslims are the internal politics of the Democratic party cult and the jew haters who are climbing to the top.
The big mistake made by the Egyptian army was in not killing Morsi on the first day of their take-over. Chances are that BO threatened them with pulling US funding if they killed him, but they should have. Everything BO touches turns to crap.
Wonder if this is where all the missing DHS ammo went?
When one thinks of the implications made in the article here and then join it with the information here: http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3055411/posts
One gets the feeling things could get very interesting in the middle east.
The relationship between countries and their citizens are kind of like the relationship between a husband and wife that don’t love each other, but try to get along. As long as finances are good, this can work to a degree. Money problems cause other problems. It can get very ugly.
And this analogy can be used to describe the relationships between nations as well. Money problems end up in war. And when the entire world’s economy is in dire straights, things like this can spark war. And I’m not talking about the skirmishes of the last 60 years. I’m talking good ol’ early 1940’s war.
Time will tell, but the whole world pease is starting to rip at the big seams. Eventually there will be a complete deconstruction. This may or may not be the beginning of that.
It’s worth tracking.
In general, nobody is listening to Obama or Kerry. They never had real influence anyway and now it’s all gone to pot. Obama can pound his chest all he wants but he can’t afford (though he is more than capable of doing) let Egypt fall back under Soviet control...anything is possible with Obama.
Just look at the guy in the picture with the “neck beard”. Hopefully he is no longer being so bold.
Obama supports the neck beards and they are dying by the hundreds. Why aren’t the Turks sending a Peace ship to Egypt like they did to Gaza? “Oh brother Mulsim, we are with you”! BLAM, BLAM, BLAM, BOOM!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Why not?
That needs to be explained, in detail.
/johnny
Except that the Morsi folks are shooting at the military.
At the start of WWII, Germany's economy was threatening to go down unless they got new sources of raw materials. Same with Japan. WWII started due to the need of those two countries to loot their neighbors in order to keep their domestic economies going.
There are tens of millions of people around the world where the value of their production is less than the cost of keeping them fed. When the foreign aid system collapses, it will not be pretty.
Egypt’s population is about 80% greater than its resources can support. The resulting poverty and zero opportunity push people to violence and fantasies that an Islamist State miraculously would fix everything. But after every last Jew and Christian in Egypt has been murdered or driven out, all wealth “re-distributed”, and a corrupt Islamic Regime emerges as dictator, Egypt will be more impoverished and moribund than ever.
Reasons we would want a piece of this action = ?
The USA has NEVER done well with meddling in the middle east. I doubt it ever will. I lived in the middle east five years and saw why.
stable area prior to Obama - turned Bloodbath during Obama.
I guess I should care.
I don’t.
Let it burn itself out.
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