Latest Polls Not Looking Good For Merkel, 12 Days Before election

Townhall.com ^ | September 11, 2013 | Mike Shedlock

[Kaslin]

The German election is on September 22. And with 12 days remaining, things do not look good for a Grand Coalition headed by Merkel. 

Via translation, the latest INSA poll looks like this:

• CDU/CSU - 39%
• SPD - 28%
• Grüne (Greens) - 11%
• Die Linke (Left) - 8%
• FDP - 4%
• AfD - 3%
• Pirate - 3%

I believe AfD will make the 5% cut. I do not know if FDP will make the cut. If neither makes the cut, an unstable "Grand Coalition" is theoretically possible three ways.

Possible Coalitions if Neither AfD Nor FDP Get 5%

1. SPD + Grüne + Die Linke
2. CDU/CSU + SPD ("Grand Coalition" with Merkel)
3. CDU/CSU + SPD ("Grand Coalition" without Merkel)

Possible Coalitions if AfD, not FDP Gets 5%

1. CDU/CSU + AfD (with Merkel)
2. CDU/CSU + AfD (without Merkel)

A grand coalition including SPD is theoretically possible.

Possible Coalitions if FDP not AfD Gets 5% 

1. CDU/CSU + FDP (with Merkel)

Again, a grand coalition with SPD is also theoretically possible.

There are numerous combinations if FDP and AfD both get 5%.

One More Merkel Snag

The CDU/CSU-FDP, CDU/CSU-AfD, and CDU/CSU-AfD-FDP possibilities all assume a working majority.

A coalition of CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP would easily have a majority. 

A coalition of CDU/CSU + FDP might not have a majority if SDP continues to gain at the expense of CDU/CSU.

Election Not Over

With many sitting the election out and with many undecided voters likely to vote for someone other than CDU/CSU or SPD, this election is hardly over.

Indeed, the mess gets rather complicated if SPD tops 28% and the Greens and Left come close to 10% each. And that outcome is not out of the question.

Merkel should hope that any CDU/CSU slippage goes to FDP and AfD, not anywhere else.

Is CDU/CSU + AfD that bad an option? I think not, but I do not get to vote. 

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

[The_Victor]

Can we get an acronym primer?

[Licensed-To-Carry]

Is this good for Conservatives or bad for Conservatives?

[AnAmericanAbroad]

SDP is the Social Democratic Party.
Die Linke is the Left; quite a few ex-communists and whatnot.
The Greens are, well....the Greens. Green Party.

CDU/CSU is Christian Democrats.
FDP is Free Democratic Party, quasi-libertarians.
AfD is Alternative for Germany, an anti-Euro/Euroskeptic party.

[The_Victor]

Thank you. Very helpful.

[AnAmericanAbroad]

No problem.

The analysis is essentially correct.

If the SDP can poll around 30%, and the Greens and die Linke pull in around 9 or 10% apiece, than there’s a good chance they could form a coalition government.

The article mentioned the Pirate Party as well; I doubt very highly they’d get past the 5% threshold, but you never know. They’re somewhat of a boutique political party. They are a social-liberal party which mostly advocates for greater political transparency. They are represented in four of the German state parliaments, but not at the Federal level.

[Moltke]

There have been discussions lately how these “independent polls” actively try to influence the outcome...and they’ve been spectacularly wrong in the past (the attempt to influence, perhaps, failing).

[SunkenCiv]

Note: this topic is from 9/11/2013. Thanks Kaslin.