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A question. How does Ted win this? Be specific. I have played this scenario out in my head many ways. I can’t see it. Help me see how this ends up anywhere besides a shutdown and republicans looking bad. History has showed in the past what will happen.

One of the most common mistakes is to assume that a future result will necessarily mirror a prior result. In 95, the Republicans "lost" in the shutdown. But there were many differences between then and now. In 95, the economy was in decent shape, which helped Clinton. Now, it is in a depression (in most of the country). In 95, the Republicans were coming off of a historical blowout, and had a large number of vulnerable freshman. Now, this is not the case. In 95, we were heading into a general election (where Democrats tend to do much better). Now, we are heading into an election with no presidential contest.

More importantly than all of that, in 95, the debate was over something distant, something that didn't affect people's daily life. ObamaCare (now partially owned by the GOPe) scares people to death -- independents, republicans and democrats. It is garbage, and everyone knows it is going to affect them personally. This gives the current debate a meaning to every person in this country (barring those exempted). And guess who has emerged as the single person most identified with opposition to the nightmare of McConnellCare? The one you call "Ted".

"History has showed in the past what will happen." No, it has not. History has shown that it can happen, under the right circumstances, but doesn't show what will happen, any more than a baseball game tells you what will happen on the next. This myth has been created by the GOPe in order to convince people that outright opposition to Obama is suicidal, when, in fact, it is anything but.

As far as how does "Ted" win this? He already has. He has identified the true enemies here, and positioned them so they cannot hide behind parliamentary games. He has become the single person most identified with opposition to RinoCare. We can never defeat the Democrats until we have excised the cancerous cockroaches in the GOP. And in that, we are much further ahead than we were even a few days ago.

You make some valid observations. First history showed republicans in a much better place in 96 than now. Polling shows that this is a loser. A shutdown will only magnify this.

To say that he has won already is a poor reading in my opinion. I have said this several times tonight but once again if you lose a coup attempt which this is the survivors will end you. Should Senator Cruz fail to defund Obamacare the establishment will end him. You do not whip the house as a junior senator. It is unprecedented. Since he is he better win or the other members will make it there life’s work to screw him.