Weekly Investment & Finance Thread (Oct 14 - Oct. 18 edition)

Freeper Investors ^ | October 14, 2013 | Freeper Investors

[expat_panama]

Happy Monday morning to all!. Last week we ended with Stocks Tack On More Gains, But Volume Slips but right now stock futures are tanking.  This morning's news, such as it is...

Debt deal deadlock  to weigh on stocks CNN - an hour ago Markets look set to erase some of last week's gains as investors lose confidence in Washington's ability to raise the all-important U.S.

Is inflation a new risk for China's economy? CNBC.com - an hour ago Despite the rise in China's consumer prices to a seven-month high in September, economists say that inflation doesn't pose a risk for the world's second-largest economy.

IMF chief warns a US default could spark recession BBC News - 6:01am The head of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, has warned that a US default could tip the world into recession. In a US TV interview she said a default would result in "massive disruption the world over".

Poll: Half of Older Workers Delay Retirement TIME - 38 minutes ago Like TIME on Facebook for more breaking news and current events from around the globe!

[MeneMeneTekelUpharsin]

Someone posted the markets would fall with no deal and about 300 up on an announcement of a deal. No deal again today and another 300 up on announcement of a deal. Just got posted again. Governments ARE the economy. Was counting at church last night...about 10 people work for some government type entity, 3 for private sector. This is in a small town.

[LiveFreeOrDie2001]

Me thinks it’ll be a good VXX day.

[expat_panama]

Dow futures have been holding steady for a bout a day now, looks like a the consensus was a sneaky late Saturday nite RINO cave (it's what I was expecting) but didn't happen (from here)...

Related thread here.

[expat_panama]

Governments ARE the economy.

--or more precisely the economy is being squandered on the government. 

Was thinking last night while the national debt's been bigger than all private debt, it's now gotten to be as big as the total value of all US businesses.  OK, so with super low interest rates we may be getting by for now a day at a time but the America people are certifiably delusional if they think they can stay this way.

[MeneMeneTekelUpharsin]

Now -97.

[BipolarBob]

Again Friday afternoon I bought TZA on the expectations of no deal. We’ll see this morning if that pays off again.

[expat_panama]

Right. Last Friday seemed like a good day for me to buy a small 1/2 position but I’m thinking now that I’ll be glad I left sooo much in cash. Trading’s become so unstable (imho) that this is really not the kind of environment that a sane person can work with...

[Jumper]

China and India are estimating food price increases of 3.1% for the past month or three months this morning out of Asia; Over the weekend the Administration capped Social Security, Veterans payments, Government retirements at 1.5%. Might we be looking at a rush to by the Government to squeeze government beneficiaries? Apparently, prices are increasing everywhere but the powers to be have their collectivist minds buried in the Sand.

Speaking of Sand, oil and natural gas should be decent investments as the US goes into colder weather and more taxes. Small producers of NG, Oil and small refiners or pump operations will also produce.

Does anyone here have any advice or knowledge about the retro-fitting of the US Natural/Liquefied Natural Gas Export Terminals under conversion to Export Terminals? These would be great mid-term investment opportunities....

[expat_panama]

Funny you should mention it. A few years ago energy was about half my portfolio but these days I don’t seem to be seeing it showing up on my radar. Maybe time to tweak my radar again...

[Lurkina.n.Learnin]

Pretty interesting thread over here

Obamanomics: M1 Multiplier and M2 Money Velocity Fall to New Lows, Labor Participation Collapsing
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/3078480/posts

[expat_panama]

While yesterday ended up in still lower volume (Stocks Stage Upside Reversal In Lower Trade), Tuesday AM begins with stock futures slightly up.  Looking like Uncle Uncertainty hasn't gone home yet...

Most Americans expect to work during 'retirement,' poll finds

Los Angeles Times - 3:28am  More than 4 in 5 older Americans expect to keep working during their latter years, a sign that traditional retirement is out of reach for vast swaths of society, according to a new survey.

Shutdown deal in sight? Reid, McConnell optimistic

By DAVID ESPO - AP - Mon Oct 14, 6:54PM CDT WASHINGTON (AP) — Racing the clock, the Senate's Democratic and Republican leaders closed in on a deal Monday night to avoid an economy-menacing Treasury defau

Glitch known before changes delayed jobless checks The Sacramento Bee - Mon Oct 14, 5:55PM CDT SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) — California officials knew a computer upgrade for the state's unemployment insurance program that delayed tens of thousands of benefit checks was vulnerable to problems before it was installed, according to a report from The Sacramento Bee. (full story)

[expat_panama]

tx!  Everyone needs to see this forward S&P earnings chart from Chuck Jones in Forbes--

--it was in post #40.

[Wyatt's Torch]

[expat_panama]

Fastinating. I can see why folks in Sept. ‘29 still thought market prices would continue to recover only to get hit with a 50% drop in October. Many people don’t realize that from ‘29 to ‘33 stocks lost 90% of their value!

[expat_panama]

Something's wrong there, it doesn't show the infamous 50% drop in Oct. '29:

(from here).  It's the scale --since May 2012 we haven't had the 100% runup that there was in '28 and the beginning of '29.

[Toddsterpatriot]

Net margins, not earnings.

[expat_panama]

huh.

If you get a chance I’d be grateful for a link to the article; I tracked it down to Forbes and Chuck Jones but couldn’t find the context.

[Toddsterpatriot]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2013/09/30/sp-500s-earnings-growth-is-anemic-and-trending-down/