Please Make Your Donations!
Our Final FReepathon of the Year!!!
You can Help Drastically Shorten FReepathons by Donating Monthly!
VERY Generous FReeper Sponsors are donating $10 for every New Monthly Donor!
Please Sign Up to Donate Monthly!
Posted on 10/18/2013 10:32:38 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
These days there doesn't seem to be a politician in America who is both as loved and hated as Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas).
With the adoration of Tea Partiers and the antipathy of just about everyone else, the newest conservative it-boy has captured the nation's political imagination. Following his now-infamous 21-hour fauxlibuster, his political puppetry of the House of Representatives that all but assured the government shutdown, and the fact that Cruz's poll numbers with conservative Republicans have skyrocketed while the overall public view of the Tea Party has tanked, the one question on everyone's mind is: What's next for Ted Cruz? The answer may lie in the story of another Senate icon from the Lone Star State, Lyndon Johnson.
At first blush, comparing Lyndon Johnson to Ted Cruz comes off as ridiculous and contrived. Their many differences are manifest to political onlookers, a list that appropriately begins with their respective approaches to the Senate and their colleagues in that chamber. During his 12 years in the Senate — including a six-year stint as Senate majority leader — Lyndon Johnson ruled with an iron fist. A master of negotiation and manipulation, Johnson almost always knew how to get other senators to fall in line behind him.
"The beautiful thing about Lyndon Johnson," says the political scientist Sean Theriault, "was that he knew more about the constituencies of most of the Senators than those senators did. So he would study and figure out what it is exactly that each senator would need in order to sign onto the plans that Lyndon Johnson had in the Senate."
This wheeling-and-dealing approach to enacting policy goals could not be more different than that of Cruz. Cruz appears to take pleasure in agitating his colleagues, a style that has led to a less-than-stellar relationship with his fellow members of Congress.
"[Ted Cruz] is going to utilize the space that the media is giving him to really attack the institution from the outside, but without any collegiality whatsoever to his fellow colleagues in the Senate who he might be hurting," Theriault continues. "In fact I would even go so far as to say that, if there's any collateral damage in his relationships with other senators, all the better, because it only proves even more what an outsider he truly is."
Collegiality is hardly the only area in which the two senators part ways. Another is the constituency to which the senators have chosen to appeal. This hearkens back to the insider game versus the outsider game, the era in which power was sought inside the institutional framework of the Senate versus outside of it.
"Cruz and Johnson couldn't be more dissimilar in how they are with respect to the Senate," says Professor David King, senior lecturer in public policy at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government. "[Johnson] completely embraced the establishment and the rules and traditions of the Senate. But that was the case with almost all senators then.
"Cruz sees his main constituency not within the Senate but... outside the Senate. And that's a constituency that sees the Senate as the enemy — as a re-election of a corrupted and ineffective government. So Senator Cruz, because his main focus is outside of the Senate, treats his fellow senators as if they are corrupted themselves, and part of a corrupted system."
While the two mens' actual constituencies could not be more different, it is this skillful maximization of their bases of support that is perhaps their greatest similarity. Professor Gregory Wawro, the deputy chair of Columbia University's department of political science and an acclaimed congressional historian, shares this assessment.
"They both come from particular wings of their parties. Ted Cruz is coming from the much more conservative, Tea Party wing of the Republicans. Johnson was from the Southern wing of the party. In that sense they both have, sort of, coalitions within a coalition that supports them. For Johnson, his coalition that formed behind him, of Southern Democrats, helped propel him to the highest office in the land. I suspect that Ted Cruz might be thinking along the same lines — that by doing what he’s doing, by interacting with the individuals in the House, that he’s basically trying to bolster this coalition within a coalition. I suspect because of higher aspirations."
Those suspicions of higher aspirations have been readily stoked by Cruz: he has already made several trips to the early presidential primary states, despite having spent less than a year in Washington. This in-your-face approach was shared by Johnson, who points out geared many of his decisions while in the Senate towards a future presidential run, as Professor King points out.
"Johnson was confrontational with his colleagues, almost always strategically, and I think Senator Cruz is confrontational with the American public, presumably also strategically. They both used conflict and tension productively on behalf of things that they care about."
A full-on confrontational approach could, however, prove detrimental to Cruz's presidential ambitions. Many of the political right's most ardently conservative politicians were popular for a while and then flamed out due to their hyper-partisanship. Professor Wawro points to this as possible evidence that Cruz may be approaching the end of his shelf life.
"People who have, especially from the more Tea Party wing of the Republican party, been pushing more extreme stances, being more in the spotlight, I don’t think has served them very well with respect to aspirations to higher office. Michele Bachmann, she’s giving up her seat in the House. It doesn’t seem like she’s going to pursue, or continue to pursue much, her ambitions for higher office. Sarah Palin has been on the sidelines with respect to pursuing higher office. One could conjecture that Cruz may end up in the same position: burn brightly but burn quickly."
There is, however, the alternative view: that Senator Cruz's scorched-earth tactics will only continue to endear him to the hard right, the only constituency to which he must appeal in order to advance to the general election. Recent analyses and polling support this view, as does Professor Theriault.
"Among his ideological faithfuls, he’s becoming an even bigger hero... But I would say that his reputation, on a nationwide scale, is being hurt at the same time. And he would quite simply say that that’s fine, and he would agree with that. He would say that it’s his job to convince his followers that he will eventually win the war against the establishment. He’s hopeful that he is also persuading more people to sign up to his side, but it certainly doesn’t look like that’s what happening."
But even if Cruz were to win the presidential nomination, it's possible his run would be torpedoed by the GOP establishment. Indeed, this has already begun to happen. And should this occur, Senator Cruz may find himself wishing he had opted for more congeniality instead of grandstanding; more listening instead of talking. For, as Lyndon Johnson himself often said, "You aren't learning anything when you're talking."
I wouldn't be so sure of either of these things. Neither of these ladies is going away.
LBJ called black people the n word all the time and IMO through great society hand outs turned them into government pets; no similarity to Cruz at all.
But even if Cruz were to win the presidential nomination, it's possible his run would be torpedoed by the GOP establishment. Indeed, this has already begun to happen. And should this occur, Senator Cruz may find himself wishing he had opted for more congeniality instead of grandstanding; more listening instead of talking. For, as Lyndon Johnson himself often said, "You aren't learning anything when you're talking."
I suppose one thing has become clear —hate Cruz or love Cruz— people recognize he’s a leader.
Yes, Ted Cruz IS a leader. He has my vote.
There is NO REASON for anyone to HATE Ted Cruz.
He has hasn’t harmed ANYONE.
The lamestream, the demonic-rats and White Flag, corrupt republicans like Peter King and John McCain have smeared him, and those entities and people are entirely responsible for the HATE!
I agree, and we need a leader these days.
I tried to search for additional info on the writer. Do you think he interned for Harry Reid?
LOL.
Cruz is our only hope of expressing a conservative voice in a decending country. It’s not grandstanding to tell it like it is, while others are hoping for cocktail party invitations in DC. You’re probably right, he’ll probably get sidelined by anyone and everyone for being the stand out who got knocked down, but I’d much rather be able to swallow my food without choking, and sleep peacefully at night as a Cruz supporter and lose, than I would ignore the truth of what’s happening and win the love of the left.
‘”was that he knew more about the constituencies of most of the Senators than those senators did. So he would study and figure out what it is exactly that each senator would need in order to sign onto the plans that Lyndon Johnson had in the Senate.”’
Ted Cruz had a strategy from the beginning and although he probably knew in the end, the establishment had just enough weight to defeat him, he was doing three things.
A) Showing the base he stands on principle
B) Flexing his influence and testing it
C) Backing the establishment into a corner
Cruz knew the votes were not there on his side in the senate. Way too many ancient bulls, opportunistic former governors, and spineless mush from liberal states. He could lock down a little over 15. Most of the senators who ran on the Tea Party platform, the conservative elder statesmen who are not represented by the leadership, and one or two political operators willing to tack right in order to fend off primary challengers.
But that coalition is not the majority of the senate GOP.... yet.
It was Cruz’ maneuvers in the House that were a stroke of brilliance. The House breaks down roughly into 3 groups. About 80 hardcore RINO establishmentarians led by Boehner, about 45 solid conservatives, and the rest are floating populists who go where the wind blows. You lock up the third category, you control the majority, and have some power over the leadership as we saw.
Cruz lionized himself and immediately got the conservatives behind him. With the threat of potential primary challenges (Cruz can give thanks to outside PACS and talk radio for that one), most of the populist Republicans rallied with Cruz too. He controlled more of the House than Boehner, and the final vote tally shows it.
Ted Cruz is a shrewd politician, so I guess you could compare him to Johnson in those years. However, Johnson was a socialist, and Ted is a patriot.
Going forward, what are Ted’s plans running up to 2016? Very simple.
‘But even if Cruz were to win the presidential nomination, it’s possible his run would be torpedoed by the GOP establishment’
THERE WON’T BE A GOP ESTABLISHMENT! This was the political purpose of the entire debacle. Cruz plans to sunset Karl Rove’s munchkins in many of the House and Senate seats, and he has done it all as a gentleman, with a smile.
Because of this vote, Thad Cochran is likely to hit the retirement home. Mitch McConnell, our very own Judas, is going to be fighting for his political life against SCF endorsed Matt Bevin. Lamar Alexander and Linda Gayham, two of the most noxious lib RINOS around are facing bitter primary battles. Couple all that with the retirements of Saxby Chambliss and Mike Johanns, and you have opportunity for a mass takeover by Cruz acolytes.
In the House, its a similar story, with Mike Simpson and Ken Kinzinger already looking toast from the heat of Tea Party primary battles.
And this is not even going into conservatives victories against rat incumbents like senator Kay Hagan in North Carolina who will face off against Tea Partier Greg Brannon.
Cruz will be the death of the establishment, the consultant class, the GOP of cronyism and bipartisan chicanery. And once he has the Senate and House GOP behind him, with the last remnants of the McShame caucus bruised and subservient, there’s only one place left for Senator Cruz to go.
The Oval Office.
Of course, LBJ was a perfect bucket of scum while Cruz shows class. Does that matter?
I like the sound of your reasoning, because it’s about the only chance left for the country.
And don’t you just love how the writer uses the term, “extreme right wing” as though zero and his ilk are normal? Some of these writers make me sick. LBJ was a rude, disrespectful, bully, who would shove his hand up women’s dresses and grab their crotch. How come this is never mentioned? He was a sick, hateful s.o.b. but, of course,he was a Demoncrat, so all is well within the media regarding is legacy.
Oh, he’d better not get knocked out and those two paragraphs are not mine!
They’re from that idiot column.
Say what you will about Goldwater, he was a much better person, and a true American to boot.
Imagine a world without welfare. Sigh.
If Steven Calabina was so intereested in drawing compairisons he would have drawn the the withdrawal of financial support we pledged to the the South Viet Nam government of military support once we withdrew from South Viet Nam as a “talking pont “ summary. Ah but that was done by the denmocrats whom he’s working for!
That would have created a review of foreign policy to date. And that is what the so called Republican leadership failed to do and makes them totally incompetent.
Worse yet when the GOP Leadership failed to articulate and inform the American people what was wrong with the ACHIA affordable health insurance act in the 2012 election but (and now called Obama -care which removed the Romney connection) were given a second opportunmity to do so now do so but didn’t.
Those Republican House and Senate members who voted for the CR which is nothing but a a billion barrels of pork laden gifts including not requiring the elite bi-partisan ruling class to become part of the mess they created.Leaving American taxpayerst paying for their elite health care. As Americans struggle with complications created by government manipulation.Should be tossed in the garbage
That doesn't make sense.
Either the GOP-e would succeed in keeping him from winning the nomination, or they wouldn't be the GOP-e anymore.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.