It seems to me discussion at this point in the game confuses the process a bit. Discussing the Dem challenger as likely or automatically being a win is rather presumptuous at this point.
McConnell has had years of support from Kentucky and it came under the Republican Brand. Because McConnell is a lilly livered power hungry appeasing simp with gravitas and second-banana status points to the obvious to me - that state would not elect a Democrat Senator. I am probably wrong but the history here doesn’t show it.
Now, bring in McConnell’s primary challenger and see what happens. He loses and the challenger rises; it doesn’t automatically follow that Dem candidate wins. Not by a long shot, especially since that 2 or 3 billion in pork is already there and irrevocable in my mind.
I see it a little different.
While I agree this polling should be taken with a grain of salt, especially with how early it is and how much McConnell is likely to outspend Grimey in the end, he is a serious liability for the same reason Romney was.
The base won’t turn out for Mitch. Kentucky is a red state on the senatorial level. Rand Paul would have no trouble with his reelection. But Mitch is corrupt, and is disliked across all party affiliations.
There isn’t much doubt in my mind at all that if Matt Bevin won the primary, he’d cruise to a 5-6 point victory of the Democrats, and probably a larger margin upon reelection, because Grimes has high name ID, and I think the rats would lack such a challenger next time.
And just to emphasize, Matt Bevin is endorsed by the SCF. He’s a conservative, and an outsider with a lot of spirit. My senses tell me he’d be what Ron Johnson should have been.