Alan Greenspan: What Went Wrong

Wall Street Journal ^ | October 19, 2013 | Alexandra Wolfe

[Cincinatus' Wife]

"............[SNIP]..........."I've always considered myself more of a mathematician than a psychologist," says Mr. Greenspan. But after the Fed's model failed to predict the financial crisis, he realized that there is more to forecasting than numbers. "It all fell apart, in the sense that not a single major forecaster of note or institution caught it," he says. "The Federal Reserve has got the most elaborate econometric model, which incorporates all the newfangled models of how the world works—and it missed it completely." He says JP Morgan had put out a forecast three days before the crisis saying the economy was on the rise. And as late as 2007, the International Monetary Fund also said that global risk was declining. "A few days [after the crisis hit], I run into an article, and it is titled, 'Do we economists know anything?' " he says. .............[SNIP......."

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Garbage in.

Garbage out.

For further evidence, look how modeling is used to predict Global Warming "science."

[Gaffer]

What went wrong Herr Greenspan, is that we put you in charge of our economy and allowed your b!tch ass wife Andrea to spew her biased invective nightly on the television.

[Da Coyote]

The Fed Reserve model apparently works as well as the climate change model.

Remember, when one works in the gubmit, it is most probably because industry wouldn’t touch them with a ten foot pole.

[AndyJackson]

"...not a single major forecaster of note or institution caught it," he says

The more Greenspan talks the more folks will remember him for the buffoon he was.

[Hardraade]

Socio-economic modeling never works, and can never work. I picked that much up from Vidar Ringstad, perhaps the prime modeler in Europe.

It’s like training wheels.

[Flintlock]

Lemmie see, now.....

....what goes up.......

....WILL CONTINUE GOING UP FOREVER AND EVER, AMEN.

That was about it, wasn’t it?

[Jess Kitting]

But after the Fed's model failed to predict the financial crisis, he realized that there is more to forecasting than numbers.

Any first year economics students knows that economics is about human behaviour, which is very unpredictable. That's why it's classified as social science, not mathematics.

And this guy was the Federal Reserve chairman? What an idiot.

[boycott]

One thing that stays in the back of my mind is the timing of the crash — soon before the ELECTION.

It wouldn’t surprise me if there were a few elitist liberal Wall Streeters that knew it was coming and thought they may as well go ahead and get it out there to help influence the election.

I know the left likes to make it look like everyone on Wall Street is republican but the truth is more Wall Street executive dollars went to Obama.

[mountainlion]

So someone withdrawing $250B from money markets September 2008 had nothing to do with it? It was a setup for people like George Soros to make fortunes of the “misfortune” of the masses. The government spending $13.4T for pork out of the social security funds was the fault of baby boomers?

[Java4Jay]

"It all fell apart, in the sense that not a single major forecaster of note or institution caught it," Multiple warnings were out there, not single, so statement is true.

[knarf]

Hmmm ... government models were wrong ... how could that be ... they're government models ...

NOW what'll we do ?

[rbg81]

Buffoon? Come on. If you want to see buffoons, hang out at Walmart. You simply can’t get to a position like the Chairman of the Federal Reserve by being a buffoon.

What Greenspan is is a highly intelligent guy who has totally compromised whatever core beliefs or principles he once had for political expediency. He was once a follower of Ayn Rand — my guess is that he knows what is right, he just doesn’t have the courage to do it. He also can’t take responsibility for his mistakes—which is why he STILL can’t admit any culpability for the Housing bubble.

I suspect he knows his legacy has gone to crap and this is his last, lame attempt to save it. Epic fail, Alan—epic fail.

[count-your-change]

Greenspan is like the airline pilot that announces to the passengers in flight that he never really knew how to fly the plane or how it got into the air but he going to parachute down to ask someone about it.

“I was actually flabbergasted,” he says. “It upended my view of how the world works.”

But don’t worry folks, he’ll have a soft landing.

[bert]

President George W Bush knew the housing loan problem was going to be serious. He knew that SS was a problem in the making.

The Queeah from Massachusetts thought other wise and forced the legislation.

Greenspan still has it wrong. The Fed could not overcome the Queeah

[moovova]

I’m not sure how someone could be married to Andrea Mitchell, and NOT spoil like raw meat left on a counter too long.

[IMR 4350]

All the “major forecasters of note” have been created by the MSM, and they will all repeat the exact same thing.

Where I’m from, when someone is proclaimed to be an expert but doesn’t have the slightest clue what they are talking about but simple repeats what someone else has said, we call them BS artist.

[MulberryDraw]

Greenspan: “It all fell apart, in the sense that not a single major forecaster of note or institution caught it,”

but there was this institution sounding warnings:

http://mises.org/daily/1533

[Rapscallion]

Every "fix" from the Obama administration has made the situation worse. Entitlement spending including food stamps has had to grow to keep people in the cities calm. Now Obama wants to take more money from the people by increasing taxes and refusing to reduce out of control spending.

It almost seems like a deliberate plan to lead us into severe confrontations with bankrupt state, federal, and local governments while forcing the people to earn less while listening to the rancor, name-calling, and malice from democrats, media, and progressives.

[Common Sense 101]

Alan Greenspan: What Went Wrong

What Went Wrong: Alan Greenspan