Posted on 10/30/2013 6:10:59 AM PDT by ScottinVA
The Virginia governor's race is going down to the wire with Democrat Terry McAuliffe clinging to a slight 45 - 41 percent likely voter lead over Republican State Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, and 9 percent for Libertarian Party candidate Robert Sarvis, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This compares to the results of an October 23 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, showing McAuliffe up 46 - 39 percent, with Sarvis at 10 percent.
Today's survey shows that if Sarvis were not in the race, McAuliffe would have 47 percent to 45 percent for Cuccinelli, too close to call.
In the three-way matchup, 4 percent of likely voters remain undecided and 7 percent of those who name a candidate say there's a "good chance" they will change their mind in the next six days.
McAuliffe leads 91 - 2 percent among Democrats, with 4 percent for Sarvis, while Cuccinelli leads 86 - 5 percent among Republicans, with 7 percent for Sarvis. Independent voters go to McAuliffe 46 - 31 percent, with 16 percent for Sarvis.
Women back the Democrat 50 - 37 percent, with 7 percent for Sarvis. Men go to Cuccinelli 45 - 39 percent with 11 percent for Sarvis.
"State Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli is nipping at Terry McAuliffe's heels as the race to be Virginia's next governor enters the final week of the campaign," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "It goes without saying that turnout is the key to this race and the harshly negative tone of the campaign is the kind that often turns off voters."
"With the race this close, the final decision by the roughly one in 10 voters who are supporting Libertarian Robert Sarvis has become even more critical. Nationally, third-party candidates often lose support in the end as voters enter the voting booth and back someone they consider the lesser of two evils. Only six in 10 Sarvis supporters say they definitely will vote for him. Almost nine in 10 McAuliffe and Cuccinelli backers are committed.
"Cuccinelli seems to be benefitting from Republicans coming home, but McAuliffe still does a little better among Democrats than Cuccinelli does among GOPers. And, McAuliffe leads among independents, perhaps the key voting group. It is difficult to see Cuccinelli winning if he can't run at least even or slightly ahead among independents. Here, too, Sarvis' voters matter greatly since the libertarian is getting 16 percent of independents, but only 9 percent overall."
But it’s Quinnipiac. If they published a prediction that the sun will rise in the east tomorrow, I’d want to double-check it myself rather than take their word for it.
” the critical question is whether the Obama youths and other voters are going to show up at the polls”
along with the illegal aliens, the felons, and the dead.
Ah... so Ras will be out with their attempt at buzzkill later today then...
This is an outlier poll. I would LOVE to believe it accurate, but so far, it's outlier.
A surge I can get behind.
COAL WORKERS UNITE!!! RATS want you on food stamps. They want us ALL on food stamps.
That can pretty much be said about any poll. Quin hasn't seen wild swings like WaPo and Rasmussen... it's been in the 3-9 - point range the whole time.
They'd smack us silly for not marching on Washington and tarring/feathering pretty much the whole lot of them decades ago.
"I’m sure the “Libertarian” candidate is getting mucho DemWit $$$, as without him McAwful most likely cannot prevail."
Rand Paul needs to keep up the support for Cuccinelli here. Sure, Libertarians won't agree with everything Ken believes, but McAuliffe is an all-out statist train wreck.
(btw, leftist Rachel Maddow is trying to distract Virginians from Paul's message by running "plagiarism" claims. Yes, that would be the same Rachel Maddow that supported plagiarist Barack Obama and fellow plagiarist Joe Biden....)
It's a new democrat tactic, they successfully used it in several house elections in 2012. They run a third party candidate claiming to be libertarian or tea party, with enough funding to make some waves and get some exposure (funded by a Soros front group posing as Libertarian/Tea Party.) The candidate then peals 5%-7% percent from the Republican which, unless the race is blowout, ensures a democrat win.
Hard to say, with the constant drumbeat of negative Obamacare stories saturating the airwaves. Quinnipiac has been in a tight range (3-9 pts) the whole campaign.
I voted absentee, as I’m at sea. I suspect the absentee vote will be heavily R. Mine was.
A FReeper posted the other day that most of Sarvis $$ is coming from Dim operatives. I guess this could be verified on OpenSecrets, etc. I don’t doubt it, though.
Uhhhhhhh....if Washington, Jefferson and Madison were alive today, why would they be in.......never mind.
Polling is an inexact science at best, and it’s hard to know who to trust. That said, Quinnipiac and Public Policy Polling are two of the least trustworthy, as their liberal biases skew their samples and are generally used to create the result rather than measure it.
Rasmussen is generally the most reliable, but in the end, it all comes down to who has the most accurate likely voter model, and no one knows that until after the election.
I wish Cooch would capitalize on this by putting up an ad that spells out all of obama’s lies and says that he knew from the beginning that obamacare was bad for America, and bad wrong for VA and that’s why he was the FIRST Attorney General to challenge it in court!
I could not disagree more about Rassmussen Reports. Scott Rassmussen has left the organization, and not on particularly good terms. Nate Silver, who like it or not has been dead on about polling issues, cited Rassmussen and PPP as polling firms to be ignored.
I don’t think people know McAuliffe and the Clintons
Or whether the IRS decides to target "specific groups."
The whole damn system is corrupt, and it's not going to change.
Everybody who can send a donation today, so he can run some good ads. I sent what I could a couple days ago.
I cannot conceive of people being stupid enough to vote for McAwful. He is toxic. Like letting a fox into your henhouse.
vaudine
If the sheeple of Virginia don’t know the Cintonovs and McAuliffich, then they deserve him.
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