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November Payrolls Rise By 203K, Higher Than Expected; Unemployment Rate Drops To 7.0%
Zero Hedge ^ | December 6, 2013

Posted on 12/06/2013 5:45:15 AM PST by Zakeet

Last month, the expected NFP print was 120K, instead we got 204K. Today, the expectations was 185K, while the print, was almost an identical 203K, even as last month's was revised modestly lower to 200K. The unemployment rate dropped from 7.2%, which was also the expected, to only 7.0%. The Fed is looking at these numbers and thinking: "taper."

From the Establishment survey:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 203,000 in November. Job growth averaged 195,000 per month over the prior 12 months. In November, job gains occurred in transportation and warehousing, health care, and manufacturing. (See table B-1.)

From the Household Survey:

Both the number of unemployed persons, at 10.9 million, and the unemployment rate, at 7.0 percent, declined in November. Among the unemployed, the number who reported being on temporary layoff decreased by 377,000. This largely reflects the return to work of federal employees who were furloughed in October due to the partial government shutdown. (See tables A-1 and A-11.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (6.7 percent), adult women (6.2 percent), teenagers (20.8 percent), whites (6.2 percent), blacks (12.5 percent), and Hispanics (8.7 percent) changed little in November. The jobless rate for Asians was 5.3 percent (not seasonally adjusted), little changed from a year earlier. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

The number of persons unemployed less than 5 weeks declined by 300,000 in November, partially reflecting the return to work of federal employees on furlough in October. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was essentially unchanged at 4.1 million in November. These individuals accounted for 37.3 percent of the unemployed. The number of long-term unemployed has declined by 718,000 over the past 12 months. (See table A-12.)

The civilian labor force rose by 455,000 in November, after declining by 720,000 in October. The labor force participation rate changed little (63.0 percent) in November. Total employment as measured by the household survey increased by 818,000 over the month, following a decline of 735,000 in the prior month. This over-the-month increase in employment partly reflected the return to work of furloughed federal government employees. The employment-population ratio increased by 0.3 percentage point to 58.6 percent in November, reversing a decline of the same size in the prior month. (See table A-1.)

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) fell by 331,000 to 7.7 million in November. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. (See table A-8.)

In November, 2.1 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, down by 409,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.)

Among the marginally attached, there were 762,000 discouraged workers in November, down by 217,000 from a year ago. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.3 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in November had not searched for work for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities. (See table A-16.)


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Extended News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: economy; jobs; obamanomics; unemployment; yetanotherlie

We cooked the books real good!

1 posted on 12/06/2013 5:45:15 AM PST by Zakeet
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To: Zakeet

Seasonal holiday hiring?


2 posted on 12/06/2013 5:47:18 AM PST by saganite (What happens to taglines? Is there a termination date?)
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To: Zakeet

The Obama regime lies to us about everything else but they’d never lie to us about this. Nope! Uh uh! No way!


3 posted on 12/06/2013 5:49:43 AM PST by FlingWingFlyer (If you think signing up for ObamaCare was fun, wait until you try to use it.)
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To: saganite

Bounce from the shut down, and the trickle effect on supporting businesses. Also, companies were working to get those inventories to those high levels.

Overall, for a single point, it’s positive. But this has to all be kept in context.


4 posted on 12/06/2013 5:50:08 AM PST by Vermont Lt (If you want to keep your dignity, you can keep it. Period........ Just kidding, you can't keep it.)
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To: Zakeet
...furloughed federal government employees.

Damn! They were paid! I guess paid vacations count as unemployment, now!

5 posted on 12/06/2013 5:52:36 AM PST by Bushbacker1 (Molon Labe! (Oathkeeper))
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To: Vermont Lt

How many of these “new” hires are working on the website for O care??


6 posted on 12/06/2013 5:53:28 AM PST by Mouton (The insurrection laws perpetuate what we have for a government now.)
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To: saganite
Seasonal holiday hiring?

Among other things, they're counting the return of government workers temporarily suspended during the shutdown, plus a ton of pencil-whipped birth-death jobs, plus seasonal adjustments, plus they dropped a bunch of people who can't find jobs out of the equation.

We'll know more later today, but that undoubtedly accounts for the majority of the improvement.

7 posted on 12/06/2013 5:53:48 AM PST by Zakeet (If socialists understood economics, they wouldn't be socialists - Friedrich Hayek)
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To: Zakeet

I believe nothing coming from this government at this point.


8 posted on 12/06/2013 5:55:12 AM PST by Red in Blue PA (When Injustice becomes Law, Resistance Becomes Duty.-Thomas Jefferson)
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To: Zakeet

7% unemployment would be a tragedy under a republican administration, yet the same 7% is the low point for the zero administration.


9 posted on 12/06/2013 5:56:29 AM PST by Graybeard58 (_.. ._. .. _. _._ __ ___ ._. . ___ ..._ ._ ._.. _ .. _. .)
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To: Red in Blue PA

Just don’t count those who can work but gave up,
and we could get this rate down to 5% like it was in the late 90’s.


10 posted on 12/06/2013 5:57:41 AM PST by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter admits whom he's working for)
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To: Vermont Lt

Not a good number at all. How many of these jobs are temporary part time hires for the Holiday’s/ In one article I read UPS alone is adding 20,000 temporary hires and JC Penny is adding about 5,000. There is also FEDEX who usually hires many thousands this time of year.

Yesterday a revised GDP number up to 3.2% in the 3rd qtr looks exciting until you realize all but 1.9% of it was for inventory building in anticipation of the Holiday’s. That leaves actual growth at 1.9 % which is LOWER than 2nd qtr GDP.

Consumer spending also fell and since this sort of spending is what drives almost 70% of the economy the numbers when parsed indicate an economy still suffering and dragging with consumer confidence at new lows.


11 posted on 12/06/2013 5:59:20 AM PST by billyboy15
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To: Zakeet

Another worthless government statistic....who in his right mind believes this rubbish. Actual jobless rate...closer to 18-20%.


12 posted on 12/06/2013 6:00:33 AM PST by ontap
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To: Zakeet

Federal employees going back to “work” shouldn’t count but did.


13 posted on 12/06/2013 6:00:59 AM PST by txrefugee
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To: Zakeet

14 posted on 12/06/2013 6:04:44 AM PST by george76 (Ward Churchill : Fake Indian, Fake Scholarship, and Fake Art)
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To: Zakeet

Ha. 7% my rear end.


15 posted on 12/06/2013 6:14:14 AM PST by SoFloFreeper
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To: saganite

Unemployment numbers, alone, do not tell the full story; except for the story required by the dhimmicraps and their bed-wetting overlord, Zero.
Unemployment can only correctly be interpreted in light of the labor participation rate.

An unemployment rate of 7% in an economy with 65% labor participation is a FAR CRY from a 7% unemployment rate in an economy with 90% labor participation.

Trendlines of the two indicators, overlaid one on the other, more completely tell the story of the current state of employment in the US. Further refining the trendline of either, to reflect seasonality and FTE data (part time jobs) would make it even more accurately reflective of the true employment picture.


16 posted on 12/06/2013 6:14:39 AM PST by PubliusMM (RKBA; a matter of fact, not opinion. 01-20-2016; I pray we make it that long.)
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To: Bushbacker1
At Stennis space center they were forced to use their vacation and sick leave to cover the furlough. Not really free money unless you want them to have no vacation. BTW I don't work there. Just trying to give some perspective.
17 posted on 12/06/2013 6:33:08 AM PST by prof.h.mandingo (Buck v. Bell (1927) An idea whose time has come (for extreme liberalism))
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To: Zakeet

Not only cooked the books, but they are counting the Temp Christmas hires, that at the end of Jan will be fired as they have served their purpose to facilitate Christmas shopping.


18 posted on 12/06/2013 6:48:54 AM PST by GailA (THOSE WHO DON'T KEEP PROMISES TO THE MILITARY, WON'T KEEP THEM TO U!)
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To: Zakeet
Yes all well and good but what about this? Piglosi took over the Appropriation process in Jan 2007 and our boy king ascended his throne on Jan 2009. (I do not know how to put markers on the BLS created chart). But note the sharp bend downward commencing in 2008 - effects of RAT led policies starting in 2007.

Series Id: LNS11300000
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Seas) Labor Force Participation Rate
Labor force status: Civilian labor force participation rate
Type of data: Percent or rate
Age: 16 years and over


19 posted on 12/06/2013 6:54:33 AM PST by Cheerio (Barry Hussein Soetoro-0bama=The Complete Destruction of American Capitalism)
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To: prof.h.mandingo
At Stennis space center they were forced to use their vacation and sick leave to cover the furlough.

Yes, but didn't those workers get back pay? Which would have essentially replaced the missing vac and sick leave money pool.
20 posted on 12/06/2013 7:05:07 AM PST by Cheerio (Barry Hussein Soetoro-0bama=The Complete Destruction of American Capitalism)
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To: Zakeet

Part time Christmas hires are counted... but in January when all are laid of... seasonally adjusted figures will not count them. Does anyone in America believe anything from this Nazi regime any longer.


21 posted on 12/06/2013 7:10:34 AM PST by LibLieSlayer (FROM MY COLD, DEAD HANDS! BETTER DEAD THAN RED!)
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To: saganite

Bingo! Seasonal hiring.


22 posted on 12/06/2013 7:14:30 AM PST by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped.)
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To: Zakeet

Thing is, no one believes them anymore. Like the law, now the unemployment rate is whatever BO says it is.


23 posted on 12/06/2013 7:40:50 AM PST by La Lydia
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To: La Lydia

And you actually believe what the gubmint tells you?


24 posted on 12/06/2013 7:57:52 AM PST by DaveA37
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To: All
41% of Net New Jobs in November Were in Government

http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/terence-p-jeffrey/41-net-new-jobs-november-were-government

25 posted on 12/06/2013 9:05:29 AM PST by Rodney Dangerfield (Paul Ryan shreds Obama: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o1yTY2MciOk)
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To: Mouton

26 posted on 12/06/2013 9:59:46 AM PST by Bikkuri
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To: saganite

It probably is seasonal, but U6 is the only number that is close to real.


27 posted on 12/06/2013 10:03:26 AM PST by xzins ( Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for victory!)
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To: Zakeet

How many of these new hires are ACORN Navigators?


28 posted on 12/06/2013 10:31:45 AM PST by Gritty (You can't fix crazy any more than you can fix stupid. Obamacare was never going to work.-Steve Deace)
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To: Progov

The folks on Wall Street sure seem to believe the gub’mint. The Dow is up 200 points, S&P up 21 and NASDAQ up 34 on the jobs report.


29 posted on 12/06/2013 10:52:26 AM PST by Nero Germanicus
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To: Progov

I don’t think you understood my post. I said no one believes them. Please reread for meaning.


30 posted on 12/06/2013 12:06:30 PM PST by La Lydia
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