Skip to comments.South Sudan: Khartoumís Aid to Macharís Tribal Violence
Posted on 12/24/2013 3:32:31 PM PST by IsraelBeach
South Sudan: Khartoums Aid to Reik Machars Tribal Violence
By South Sudan News Staff
Juba December 24 During the weekend of 20-22 December, the Republic of South Sudan underwent a political crisis, an attempted coup and emerged to the next phase of putting down what's become known as the Machar Revolt. The African think-tank, The Fashoda Institute, has published a current analysis of the South Sudans crisis.
Juba entered the weekend having lost control over most of Jonglei State. However, this loss of control was the result of an uneasy cease-fire and tenuous cooperation between the predominantly Nuer ex-SPLA forces of General Peter Gadet Yaak and the Merle forces of the warlord David Yau Yau. It is still not clear just how much of Unity State Machars home and the vital oil fields remained under Jubas control and how much were under the rebel control says the report. On 22 December, the situation in Juba itself was calm and stable. There was no threat to President Salva Kiirs hold onto power and to the Governments functioning.
The main Machar-related threats consisted of two South Sudan military units that defected. Despite repeated efforts, Gadets and Koangs forces failed to break out of the Nuer-populated areas stresses the report. The Nuer-dominated areas where these forces operate presently are surrounded by Dinka-majority areas and large SPLA forces. President Kiir intends to bring these mutineer forces back to the fold. If reconciliation doesnt work the rebel forces will be defeated.
To affect a dramatic breakout despite the military stalemate, the Machar camp is pursuing an audacious strategy. On the one hand, they are portraying Machar himself as a world class leader and democrat worthy of the presidency and definitely on par with President Kiir (a theme that is being reinforced by the highlighting and endorsement of Machars harsh criticism of President Kiir and his government by the mainstream media in the West), explains the report.
On the other hand, Machars forces are escalating their violent, irrational operations shooting at US Air Force MV-22s trying to evacuate foreign citizens from Bor (and wounding four US military personnel), shooting at UN helicopters trying to deliver emergency humanitarian supplies in both Jongeli and Unity States, attacking a few UNMISS bases (where three Indian UN troops and 33 South Sudanese refugees were killed), and the threats to blow up the oil facilities in Jonglei State.
Sudan started exploiting the diversion of SPLA units from the border to surrounding the mutineer units in Jonglei and Unity States in order to push large quantities of small arms and ammunition to both rebel (like Yau Yaus) and Nuer forces, asserts the Fashoda Institute.
A few convoys were interdicted by the SPLA over the weekend. However, the quantities of weapons in hostile hands in sensitive areas are visibly growing. Moreover, the attackers of the UNMISS base used brand-new Sudanese-made ammunition (as determined from the empty cartridges left behind). The SPLA will have to tackle these challenges only after Machars coup is brought to an end.
Unless Juba is capable of marshaling the countrys military forces quickly, suppressing the revolt in Unity State (as distinct from Jonglei where Jubas control had been tenuous since independence), and restoring SPLA presence along the Sudanese border the rebellion will spread and a multitude of smaller foci of violence will join the fray as local leaders will conclude that Juba is vulnerable and will therefore attempt to extract-by-force favors, funds and services for their own constituencies, advises the analytical Institute.
The current crisis in South Sudan cannot be comprehended in isolation from the countrys tormented past and challenging current posture. South Sudan has been trying hard to build a nation and a state after the debilitating war of independence, autonomy period, and the post-independence austerity period (caused by Sudans blocking of oil exports until very recently). It is a mighty challenge given the diversity of the population and the gravity of the situation.
South Sudan President Kiir was doing as great a job as can be expected under such horrific conditions. For several months now, Machar has tried to further the self-interests of his Nuer tribe by undermining the nation-building effort of the Kiir administration, and by reawakening the sectarian-tribal tensions. When Machar was rejected by the Government and Party establishments he launched the revolt that is now tearing the nation apart along tribal-national lines, concludes the report.
Irrespective of President Kiirs actions Machar must not be rewarded for awakening and capitalizing on sectarian-tribal hostilities and enmities (as he did in the 1990s and caused several Nuer massacres of Dinka).
President Salva Kiir should be helped to restore stability and unity to South Sudan, and then should be helped to improve both good governance and the economy. Hopefully, South Sudan will quiet down and stabilize well before election time in 2015.
Sacrificing some American lives to their war should fix things right up.
Merry, Safe Christmas to all our troops around the globe - thank you for defending and protecting the freedoms we enjoy and cherish.
Nice try but sacrificing Americans to animals is no way to celebrate Christmas.
You want to celebrate, be my guest on your own dime.
Can you be a bit more racist - we don't quite hear you loud enough!
Nobody said anything about race but its nice to see that someone is ready to the Al Sharpton slot when he withers away.
Ethiopia is a Christian nation too.
Who gives a Rat’s ass?
These prehistoric animals have created their own cesspool and we should not do anything to help them.
Let it run it’s course for in 10 years a new crisis will overtake the winner of this year’s crisis.
Every sub Saharan war devolves into brutality on an unimaginable scale. The last thing we need to do is subject American soldiers to fighting 8 and 9 year old soldiers or forced cannibalism if captured.
Robert Mugabe claims to be a Catholic and he’s nothing but a thug.
It is incumbent on every "race" to join the "race" to modernity or perish.
Who finishes second is a moot point.
Islamofascist Sudan with the help of Islamofascist Iran has resumed its shredding of the Christian/Animist/Moslem south.
This is what I suspected.
South Sudan is independent after decades of war and genocide.
Khartoum isn’t about to sit on its hands, though, especially since the oil is in the south. They have been plotting jihad, and it looks like they are exploiting divisions among the tribes making up the South.
If the South Sudanese don’t get their collective heads out of their hindquarters, they will be reabsorbed by the muslims with all the savagery that follows.
While the renewed fighting has been blamed on tribal tensions, the feud between Kiir and Machar was driven more by a quest for power than ethnicity.