Skip to comments.Investment & Finance Thread 2014 New Year(Jan. 6 - Jan. 13 edition)
Posted on 01/06/2014 2:28:44 AM PST by expat_panama
Investment & Finance Thread 2014 New Year(Jan. 6 - Jan. 13 edition)
Anyone want more stuff or less stuff posted here please let me know.
Ping list -- on or off let me know here or via freep-mail. If I missed you then Freep-mail me. The list of everyone's links is here. Open invitation continues always for input on ideas for the thread, this being a joint effort works well. Keywords: financial, WallStreet, stockmarket.
2013 was an amazing year-- stocks up 30%+ w/ metals tanking like 40%. Don't know about you but I spent most of it ready to bail out of stocks finding I never had a good reason. OK, so we made money but I'll be the first confess of being too cautious & missing out on some of the gains I should have gotten.
New Year's Resolution #1: No more wimping.
Sure, lots of folks are complaining about this past year's stock gains saying it can't last. The thing is that though we've been having a great run on stocks we can't expect it to last forever---
--because the fact that it's been going on for hundreds of years means that stocks are sure to revert to where they were in 1799 any second now.
Stock returns are a function of the value of American commerce. America grows. We need to get used to it.
The long term pattern is total return on stocks since 1800 has been 8%/year-- that comes out to doubling our money in just over a dozen years.
Looking more closely at the past few decades what I'm seeing is the fact that we're apparently leaving the stock perch we've been on for the past decade and a half, and we're seem to be emerging into what a lot of people call a 'secular bull market'.
OK, I'm still ready to dump if what I got drops 9%, but I'll put more effort into really checking before I post my sell order...
Good morning campers and a happy Mother-of-all-Mondays to all!!!
Last Thurs & Fri were off a bit and while this mornings futures are slightly upbeat in general and tepid for stocks (@ 5.15AM EST) that's how it's been lately. Even the news is mixed:
Asian Stocks Fall Most in Three Weeks on China Services, Yen Businessweek - 10 hours ago Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark index headed for its biggest loss in more than three weeks...Europe Faces Specter of Deflation Wall Street Journal - 5:02am Relatively few people alive today in the West have experienced deflation, but for Europeans, that may be changing...Global Central Banks Splitting on Stimulus in 2014 as Fed Tapers San Francisco Chronicle - 8 hours ago Jan. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The united stimulus front of central banks is starting to splinter as 2014 dawns. ...Ford China Deliveries Surge 49% in 2013, Overtaking Toyota (1) Businessweek - 3 hours ago Ford Motor Co. (F:US)'s China sales surged 49 percent in 2013, overtaking Toyota Motor Corp...UK services PMI ends 2013 strong despite drop MarketWatch - 24 minutes ago LONDON--Activity in the U.K.'s dominant services sector grew for a 12th consecutive month in December, albeit at a slower pace...
The fact that many U. S. business can actually survive, and in some cases thrive, with the political climate we have today, speaks volumes about the ingenuity, creativity, and work ethic of its people.
Never sell the American people short when it comes to commerce.
For myself, I remain unconvinced this market is not due an immediate correction. I believe this correction will be due to War Drums thus absolving the Fed & WH of their ruinous economic policy, and said crash will cull about 40% out of the Fed Stimulus out of Stocks.
Someone posted a retort to one of my comments a couple of weeks ago that is in line with this. And that is, every-time Obama didn't get all he wanted or lost with a piece of legislation the markets rallied. I don't have the data to support it, but it may ring true. So their is an underlying desire to engage in commerce, we have no choice w/ him or without him it will go on.
In terms of the ingenuity, I have been a bit sour on this "3D Printing" revolution, I know enough about metallurgy to be dangerous and couldn't see it for a host of reasons. However, a post here in FR this week on a breakthrough on Titanium production, seeing the CEO of DDD on TV, and that fact that this Titanium can be printed, ( and an application of "powdered aluminum" that has me stunned ) and printing in the Jet Turbine arena makes me wonder if more is going on than can be talked about.
Tangent to this I have been doing some reading on a DOE funding project to make Auto Fuel Tanks that carry CNG and not be the cylindrical space gobblers they are with the 2 enabling technologies being a low cost lower pressure pump and an absorbent medium in the tank to increase capacity by 30%. This would allow the current CNG infrastructure, i.e. the natural gas coming to your home to be the fueling delivery system so that you could fill up at home!
Obama can't stop these paradigm changing technologies ( including the Fracking Revolution ), let us hope his administration doesn't become so onerous that they decide to go off shore.....
I’m starting to get concerned about my Proctor & Gamble stock. I don’t know what’s going on with it. It’s not low but it’s down more than it seems like it should be. My 401K pension is in a separate account that is low risk and it’s doing fine but my P&G stock pension is not doing well and I can’t see why. I’m not a financial expert though. I retired early and draw a small income from my 401K but I don’t bother my P&G stock account. I retired early at 58 last July. I plan to find one of those barely above minimum wage for retiree part time jobs this spring or summer. :-)
Looks good to me for a long-term investment.
“The fact that many U. S. business can actually survive, and in some cases thrive, with the political climate we have today, speaks volumes about the ingenuity, creativity, and work ethic of its people.”
It is hard to classify many of the listed companies as “American” anymore; their overseas relationships (including their labor pools) have increasingly made them “multi-national”. I’ve posted on other threads: the best way for a company to drive up stock price is to lay off American workers (otherwise we’d have 0% unemployment as these companies “thrived”). The work ethic of the American people is waiting to show itself (when Americans work again).
O'neal at Investor's Daily was saying that about how he made money in 1979. Historically peoples who've underestimated America have regretted it.
It is my belief that a self governing device has been installed on the American economy by busineses that prevents for the time being over revving and maintains a level of thriving or barely thriving.
They long to remove the governor and let ‘er rip.
Greenspan made his "irrational exuberance" comment back in '96, and the market continued to soar for years. Counting dividends the Dow Jones stocks are worth more than five times what they were in '96.
OK, mere action is all well and good, but real life words is a different and serious matter. Many investors (like myself) prefer a strategy of being fully invested and telling everyone the market's going to crash. That way when it goes up we get rich and if it goes down we say 'I told you so'.
Everything I read says to buy it and keep it because it’s pretty stable and pays good dividends, which it does, but I guess after it hit over $85 and started going back down I have been panicked. I haven’t lost any of my original stock, just the amount I made last month. It performed good the last couple of months until the last couple of weeks. Since I’m retired I don’t hear as much as I used to from work and I don’t see what is causing it to slow down. I keep it for the long term since I have the other account to draw from and I plan to work at something in the future so that I can stop drawing from the 401K. When I turn 59 1/2 in April I will move the 401K (maybe) to a place that can manage it for me. Being an employer sponsored plan, I am limited to what I can do as long as it is in the company plan with JP Morgan but if I move it now I have to pay the penalty to withdraw any. As long as it’s in the company plan and I retired after 55, I don’t have the tax penalty on monthly withdrawals.
IBD reports that PG ranks poorly compared to other companies in terms of earnings, price performance and the way institutions are not not buying but are selling it. High performing group leaders HLF and NUS have been kind to me recently, and here's how PG compares to them:
That’s what I’m talking about. Except for the big jump recently, it’s not doing much. It’s kind of flat. The good thing is I guess is that it’s not taking a huge tumble. There is so much diversity in P&G products that when one product is not performing, another product is, so while it might not go up, it doesn’t crash either. If you want stock that is growing and making money though, P&G isn’t right now. If you stand back and look at it from several years ago, it is doing fine.
P & G is a core keeper. It pays a good dividend. Its safe money. YOur not going to get 25% on it. Do you buy and use their products? If the answer is yes then keep it. Safe money and growth.
How do you read IBD. I came across a stock the other day that IBD ranked very high.
The original maker of MRI equipment. It is actually up $3.19 today. Should have bought it..
Thanks! That makes me feel better. Since I retired I’m more nervous about my savings since I’m not currently contributing. I’ll keep it for sure. I do buy most of their products, mostly to support the business.
The only reason I retired early was 36 years of long hours (80+ hours some weeks before time off), rotating shifts, and back pain. I was a Team Leader, or supervisor, and spent all of my time on my feet on the manufacturing floor with small amounts of time in the office. Since I retired all of my pain is gone and I’m getting back in shape so I want to work at something until my true retirement age at least and save the rest of my savings. I enjoy working but I’m ready to work and have a life. :-)
When I turn 59 1/2 in April I will move the 401K (maybe) to a place that can manage it for me.
A word of advice. Check out Bogleheads. (http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/index.php) They are a group of investors dedicated to the idea of managing your own investments, and primarily investing in index funds.
While it is tempting to just hand over your money to a firm like Edward Jones, to them you are just one of thousands of clients. At the end of a day, no one gives a second thought about your investment balance. To you, though, your investment portfolio is what allows you to sleep at night, to live a good retirement. Managing it does not have to be time consuming. At least learn about Bogleheads and their philosophy before you turn your money over to someone else. Besides a very informative forum, they have a great wiki. In our area, there are also quarterly meetings to which we get about two dozen or more participants.
Thanks SO much for the link! I will check them for sure.
I have owned since about 1977 and its a core holding for me. One of my son’s now 25 years old got shares when P & G bought Gillette. His nice little shares have been growing since he was 2 and now is worth a small fortune. I advised him to hold on all his life if he could.
That’s about where mine are now. I was working for Gillette when P&G bought it and have received shares of stock each year in the profit sharing account. They have steadily grown and that’s why I keep it all in stock but it seems like it isn’t growing very fast. I think I’m impatient and more nervous than I was while I was working and getting shares on a yearly basis. I got my last shares in July or August. Personally, I think if a person wants to invest in stock for the long term, you can’t beat P&G for stability even if it does grow slowly. If you want to make a fast buck and sell, it’s probably not the stock you want. Most P&G employees hang on to it for the dividends. I reinvest all of mine.
Never leave home without it. I got the online subscription and that gives me all the website access. I overlook and miss a lot of what they got 'cause there's so much there.
Should have bought it..
It may not be healthy to say that, what I've been getting is that I'm supposed to say "whoa neat --let's check out what the signals were so I can spot the next one!". We never make any money on what we should'a could'a would'a, only on what we do. That FONR looks pretty good though; they IBD folks would say it's just had a 'breakthrough day' by punching through the previous high on Nov. 25. atm it seems to be losing steam --new highs @ lower volume-- so if it dips below 23.50 again I may buy into it...
Embarassing as it might be that my 80 year old Mother beleives in the IBD fourmula. She spotted this on Saturaday and asked me what I thought. I agree with Would have, should have and could have. She gets the Sat copy of the IBD and I take the Online version since it was an add on to her subscription.
I better start studying IBD.
--and a very good morning to all! We got stuck w/ an institutional sell off on both the NASDAQ & the S&P500 yesterday, but today we're starting (as of 5:42AM) with all market's futures are upbeat, especially stock indexes; maybe we're finally getting our--january effect
The January effect is a seasonal anomaly in the financial market where securities' prices increase in the month of January more than in any other month. This creates an opportunity for investors to buy stock for lower prices before January and sell them after their value increases. ...
IBD not only supplies answers to a lot of questions but they also warn about the importance of evaluating our own progress. After two years of disappointments my own experience told me that the 'cup'n'handle' buy points didn't work for me as well as they seemed to work for them.
Then again, it may have been something else; please let me know what you're finding.
I watch and watch and do what my instincts tell me. I've missed so many opportunities to make money since I've been sitting it out but I'm just not seeing anything I want.
Either the stocks I have a feel for are stuck around a pivotal point for weeks now or I feel they are over-priced.
I'll tell you what I was doing. I wasn't ready to buy in 1000 lots, max was 300 for me. You should really start at opening and watch all day; they all seem to take off up or down. I look at the general past trend, then pull up a 1 day 1 minute chart, keep refreshing it. That combined with the MACD and started watching volume, I was getting fairly good at hitting the highs and lows for the day. Also the RSI. That isn't foolproof, but when a stock goes into oversold at the bottom, sometimes a couple bounces, that's a good point to buy in. But some stocks aren't that volatile. Some stay on a narrower channel.
My biggest problem is when a trade starts to go bad, I have a sale ready to get out as soon as I buy but it hard to resist the temptation to hang on. One day it went bad on me, 300 sh I sold at about 80 loss. So I see where to buy back in, stayed in, maybe that one was a swing and made about 180 on it. Net gain not so good. But those amounts are still considerable cash for me.
I guess I just got cold feet. I am risk averse right now.
Have any of you tried buying and selling ETF funds? I have been looking at them as it would be nicer to buy a bunch of stocks at one time. The ETF accomplishes that goal.
Black rock have lots to chose from.
I was looking at the IYT fund iShares Transportation ETF
ITA Fund iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF
Some ETF's are inverse and can cause losses. Also, there was something else about they are limited about upper value, can't remember.
I'm also studying options. Also you can play indexes.
For now I have to stick with what I understand.
IBD uses them so much I'd been thinking that they invented them, but it seems lots of people like 'em. Here's the basic pattern (from here) and when I looked I even found a youtube chat here. Several times a week IBD has several dozen stock graphs and they point out what the buy points are --for a while I was writing down the 30 or 40 buypoints they were announcing and used those for my "buy" list.
So using cup'n'handles is easy (or head'n'shoulders or whatever). The hard part is making money off 'em. After about a year or more of sooo many IBD cup'n'handles I wasn't making as much money as I was before, so a few months ago I decided to ignore those patterns and all I'm doing is I buy stocks with good valuation numbers that's got good steady price growth. Seems to be working better & it's a lot easier.
Everyone has their own risk tolerance and their own investment goals so there's not right or wrong here. The only rule is to understand what we're doing and then be happy with what we did.
I’m emailing you a couple things. Given to me on a closed forum so don’t want to upload to my flickr and embed.
We got a percent increase in stock indexes yesterday w/ higher volume --showing some feeling there. This morning's stock futures are off a bit, profit taking maybe. News is mixed too:
S&P 500 leads stock rally as year-opening slide ends Columbus Dispatch - 7 hours ago State Auto has a new tool to help policyholders assess their risk as a potential victim of identity theft and recommend what steps they can take to be... Other Business Features. S&P 500 leads stock rally as year-opening slide ends · Cold boosts power demand; ...Unemployment in Europe Remains Stubbornly High New York Times - 2 hours ago PARIS - Europe's labor market remained stagnant in November, official data showed Wednesday, suggesting the region's economy will continue treading water in the new year.
got it —tx!
Morning heads-up: Futures a bit up in general w/ stock indexes a bit off in particular. Not much news is good news 'cause if this were a stock bubble then what we'd be seeing is frantic intense interest. We're not. [going back to bed]
I’m curious, what percentage of your (people on this thread) income are you (or did you) putting away for retirement savings? 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, etc.?
I think we need to boost ours and I was wondering what a good goal might be. (I know, it all depends, LOL!)
lol right! Seriously what decides it all is the choice of how you want to live. Like do you want to live w/ the same style after retirement as before (after you figure your reduced costs & your reduced income) or is it ok to accept a cut in lifestyle. If you decide you want no change, then you figure what cut from your present income will give you the savings you need to generate the retirement you want to live on. Return on investments at 8% is believable, and while I've been doing better than 8% I'm honestly not sure how much of that's dumb luck.
At any rate, if you know how to do simple math on a excel or some other spreadsheet (many are free) then you make a column for years, another for income and the 3rd column for the balance and it tells you what you need to save. Let me know what you find, it's one of my favorite pastimes.
like I said, one of my FAVORITE pastimes —I just discovered google spreadsheets (NEAT!!!! http://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ ) and in no time I cranked out a sample retirement for someone making $50k and wanting to retire in 35 years. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?hl=en&hl=en&key=0AgZB_Re5rHCXdGJSTHg4Qm1YVEpYOGZLVmFYd0FFZ1E&
Thank you very much! I’ll check it out.
CANNABIS SATIVA, INC. One you could be happy investing in.
I would add an expense column (which would be a sum of a detailed expense report, i.e. insurance (home, car, umbrella), college, property tax, food, clothes, vet, medical, utility, etc. costs) with an annual increase of 3%. Also, for the sake of being conservative I would use a ROI (return on investment) of 5%. That way if you get 8%, YIPPEE you are ahead of schedule and can retire earlier. : )
That actually sounds pretty good; even though 8% is historically reliable the problem is with the fact that the 8% is a long term average while retirement is a short term certainty.
China Halts Bank Cash Transfers.
JP and the largest Gold withdrawal (10 tonnes) this weekend....heading East
Thanks for the news! I’m wondering what’s going on with the markets, and if we are taking a dive if it’s time to get out for a while.
No new weekly threads? Just curious. :-)
How's your New Year's Resolution #1 coming along?
I was wondering too!