Skip to comments.STORM WARNING: NOAA forecasters estimate a 90% chance of geomagnetic storms on Jan. 9th
Posted on 01/09/2014 7:45:34 AM PST by tired&retired
STORM WARNING: NOAA forecasters estimate a 90% chance of geomagnetic storms on Jan. 9th when a CME is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. The speed of the solar wind around Earth could spike to 700 km/s (1.6 million mph) shortly after the impact, sharply compressing Earth's magnetosphere. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.
HUGE SUNSPOT, CHANCE OF FLARES: The source of the incoming CME is AR1944, one of the largest sunspots of the current solar cycle. The active region sprawls across more than 200,000 km of solar terrain and contains dozens of dark cores. The largest could swallow Earth three times over. AR1944 is circled in this Jan. 9th snapshot from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory.
The sunspot is almost directly facing Earth. This makes it a threat for geoeffective eruptions. NOAA forecasters estimate an 80% chance of M-class flares and a 50% chance of X-flares on Jan. 9th.
These stories are so hyper. The last ones a few months ago were sunspot activity at multi year low.
2014-01-09 12:36 UTC Awaiting CME Arrival
The ongoing Solar Radiation Storm peaked briefly just above the S3 (Strong) threshold but is now in decay and currently at S2 (Moderate) levels.
Enhancement back across the S3 level is possible with the anticipated coronal mass ejection (CME) arrival. The CME, originally expected to arrive around 0800 UTC (3:00 a.m. EST) today, January 9, is now slightly overdue.
However, pre-arrival signatures from EPAM data on the ACE spacecraft still show this transient en route. G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm activity is still expected on January 9 and 10.
Updates here as this event unfolds.
“These stories are so hyper”
Yes, the current cycle has been very unpredictable.
It’s already hit IbJensen!
Global Warming or Bush is the cause of this..
You will have to follow very closely to find anything affected. Massive overhype.
Uh oh, plausible deniability.
Would this event explain the static affecting my FM radio reception this morning? (I cannot remember the last time I heard radio static.)
Beware... we now need to brace for the MUCH FEARED Solar Vortex!
Will someone please tell an old woman so she might understand what this means to airplanes and phones?
My daughter will be on a flight Friday from MS to TX.
What is "the event"? Do sunspots affect power grids? satellite and other wireless transmission? the meanderings of the polar vortex? (yes, I know a vortex doesn't reander, sarcasm about the term). the magnetic poles?
These are serious questions. I really don't know why we should be concerned about solar flares on steroids.
However nothing affects the earth more than molecular level changes of CO2 in the atmosphere. (sarcasm). When you look at the power of forces like the sun that have bombarded to the earth for eons and not exterminated life it is quite a stretch to believe that man’s puny impact could do so.
Next to nothing. The solar storm is now at S2. We average a couple of these a year.
Chart of S1 through S5 at:
Nope. Just more Northern Lights
Ha ha! Good one!
OK. and then what?
Do we prepare for this or what?
Are we supposed to take some precautions? wear special sunglasses, hide in tub, under table? eat cheerios? spam? have a glass of wine? light an incandescent light bulb? wear thermal underwear?