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STORM WARNING: NOAA forecasters estimate a 90% chance of geomagnetic storms on Jan. 9th
spaceweather.com/ ^ | January 9, 2014 | Spaceweather.com

Posted on 01/09/2014 7:45:34 AM PST by tired&retired

STORM WARNING: NOAA forecasters estimate a 90% chance of geomagnetic storms on Jan. 9th when a CME is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. The speed of the solar wind around Earth could spike to 700 km/s (1.6 million mph) shortly after the impact, sharply compressing Earth's magnetosphere. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.

http://spaceweather.com/

HUGE SUNSPOT, CHANCE OF FLARES: The source of the incoming CME is AR1944, one of the largest sunspots of the current solar cycle. The active region sprawls across more than 200,000 km of solar terrain and contains dozens of dark cores. The largest could swallow Earth three times over. AR1944 is circled in this Jan. 9th snapshot from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory.

The sunspot is almost directly facing Earth. This makes it a threat for geoeffective eruptions. NOAA forecasters estimate an 80% chance of M-class flares and a 50% chance of X-flares on Jan. 9th.


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: geomagnetic; nuttery; solarflares; sun; sunspots
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Worth following
1 posted on 01/09/2014 7:45:34 AM PST by tired&retired
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To: tired&retired

These stories are so hyper. The last ones a few months ago were sunspot activity at multi year low.


2 posted on 01/09/2014 7:48:07 AM PST by UB355 (Slower traffic keep right)
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To: tired&retired

2014-01-09 12:36 UTC Awaiting CME Arrival

The ongoing Solar Radiation Storm peaked briefly just above the S3 (Strong) threshold but is now in decay and currently at S2 (Moderate) levels.

Enhancement back across the S3 level is possible with the anticipated coronal mass ejection (CME) arrival. The CME, originally expected to arrive around 0800 UTC (3:00 a.m. EST) today, January 9, is now slightly overdue.

However, pre-arrival signatures from EPAM data on the ACE spacecraft still show this transient en route. G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm activity is still expected on January 9 and 10.

Updates here as this event unfolds.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/


3 posted on 01/09/2014 7:48:20 AM PST by tired&retired
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To: UB355

“These stories are so hyper”

Yes, the current cycle has been very unpredictable.


4 posted on 01/09/2014 7:50:11 AM PST by tired&retired
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To: tired&retired; IbJensen

It’s already hit IbJensen!


5 posted on 01/09/2014 7:50:56 AM PST by Zuben Elgenubi (NOPe to GOPe)
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To: tired&retired

Global Warming or Bush is the cause of this..


6 posted on 01/09/2014 7:51:42 AM PST by navysealdad (http://drdavehouseoffun.com/)
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To: tired&retired
Worth following

You will have to follow very closely to find anything affected. Massive overhype.

7 posted on 01/09/2014 7:53:16 AM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: tired&retired

8 posted on 01/09/2014 7:53:26 AM PST by tired&retired
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To: tired&retired

Uh oh, plausible deniability.


9 posted on 01/09/2014 7:53:41 AM PST by Zuben Elgenubi (NOPe to GOPe)
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To: tired&retired

Would this event explain the static affecting my FM radio reception this morning? (I cannot remember the last time I heard radio static.)


10 posted on 01/09/2014 7:55:14 AM PST by Clara Lou
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To: tired&retired

Beware... we now need to brace for the MUCH FEARED Solar Vortex!


11 posted on 01/09/2014 7:55:25 AM PST by C210N (When people fear government there is tyranny; when government fears people there is liberty)
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To: tired&retired

Will someone please tell an old woman so she might understand what this means to airplanes and phones?

My daughter will be on a flight Friday from MS to TX.


12 posted on 01/09/2014 7:56:31 AM PST by TribalPrincess2U (0bama's agenda¬óDivide and conquer seems to be working.)
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To: tired&retired
the event...

What is "the event"? Do sunspots affect power grids? satellite and other wireless transmission? the meanderings of the polar vortex? (yes, I know a vortex doesn't reander, sarcasm about the term). the magnetic poles?

These are serious questions. I really don't know why we should be concerned about solar flares on steroids.

13 posted on 01/09/2014 7:57:23 AM PST by grania
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To: tired&retired

However nothing affects the earth more than molecular level changes of CO2 in the atmosphere. (sarcasm). When you look at the power of forces like the sun that have bombarded to the earth for eons and not exterminated life it is quite a stretch to believe that man’s puny impact could do so.


14 posted on 01/09/2014 7:58:19 AM PST by The Great RJ
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To: TribalPrincess2U
Will someone please tell an old woman so she might understand what this means to airplanes and phones?

Next to nothing. The solar storm is now at S2. We average a couple of these a year.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

Chart of S1 through S5 at:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/3109767/posts?page=10#10

15 posted on 01/09/2014 7:59:47 AM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: grania

Nope. Just more Northern Lights


16 posted on 01/09/2014 8:01:23 AM PST by AppyPappy (Obama: What did I not know and when did I not know it?)
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To: thackney

Thanks


17 posted on 01/09/2014 8:02:46 AM PST by TribalPrincess2U (0bama's agenda¬óDivide and conquer seems to be working.)
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To: C210N

Ha ha! Good one!


18 posted on 01/09/2014 8:03:52 AM PST by Abigail Adams
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To: The Great RJ
..........”When you look at the power of forces like the sun that have bombarded to the earth for eons and not exterminated life it is quite a stretch to believe that man’s puny impact could do so.”
*****************
Well if the stretch isn't made no money can be made.
19 posted on 01/09/2014 8:08:35 AM PST by mongo141 (Revolution ver. 2.0, just a matter of when, not a matter of if!)
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To: tired&retired
"Worth following"

OK. and then what?

Do we prepare for this or what?

Are we supposed to take some precautions? wear special sunglasses, hide in tub, under table? eat cheerios? spam? have a glass of wine? light an incandescent light bulb? wear thermal underwear?

20 posted on 01/09/2014 8:11:46 AM PST by 1_Rain_Drop
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To: grania
the meanderings of the polar vortex?

The polar vortex can stretch like the recent event or even break in two like more severe cold snaps in the 80's and 90's. The solar activity (high or low) does not cause anything directly. However it is observed that high solar activity can speed up the Sudden Stratospheric Warmings like the mini one we just had. The connection is through the strength of the anticyclonic polar vortexes that surround the cyclonic polar vortex. The anticyclones can strengthen due to high solar activity that increases the easterly flow in the tropical stratosphere.

21 posted on 01/09/2014 8:12:45 AM PST by palmer (Obama = Carter + affirmative action)
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To: tired&retired

Now this is very important and I highly recommend you watch these videos, and read the linked article.

Please, please pay attention to these videos:


22 posted on 01/09/2014 8:12:56 AM PST by Yosemitest (It's Simple ! Fight, ... or Die !)
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To: 1_Rain_Drop
You might get a very good "Northern Lights" show tonight,
and there is a "SLIGHT" , I SAY AGAIN, "SLIGHT" chance of long term power outages,
and maybe computer damage from static electricity frying parts.
23 posted on 01/09/2014 8:16:10 AM PST by Yosemitest (It's Simple ! Fight, ... or Die !)
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To: C210N

But it doesn’t matter until/unless The Weather Channel names it!


24 posted on 01/09/2014 8:17:25 AM PST by alancarp
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To: 1_Rain_Drop
One other thing.
Some people believe that there is a greater chance of earthquakes from increased solar pressure on the earth during this period of time.
25 posted on 01/09/2014 8:18:44 AM PST by Yosemitest (It's Simple ! Fight, ... or Die !)
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To: tired&retired

someone give it a catchy name, like solar vortex and the lame stream media will be all over it.


26 posted on 01/09/2014 8:22:24 AM PST by hadaclueonce (Because Brawndo's got electrolytes. Because Ethanol has Big Corn Lobby)
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To: appalachian_dweller; OldPossum; DuncanWaring; VirginiaMom; CodeToad; goosie; kalee; ...

Preppers’ PING!!


27 posted on 01/09/2014 8:23:53 AM PST by Kartographer ("We mutually pledge to each other our lives, our fortunes and our sacred honor.")
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To: tired&retired

Does this mean the end of life on Earth as we know and love it? If not, I’m going to cook eggs and bacon for breakfast this morning. Actually, on second thought, even if it DOES mean the end of life on Earth as we know and love it, I’m going to cook eggs and bacon for breakfast this morning anyway.

C’est la vie.


28 posted on 01/09/2014 8:25:17 AM PST by catnipman (Cat Nipman: Vote Republican in 2012 and only be called racist one more time!)
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To: thackney

It’s not enough to get me to fire up the ham radio. This has been the worst sunspot cycle I’ve ever seen for ham radio.

/johnny


29 posted on 01/09/2014 8:26:05 AM PST by JRandomFreeper (Gone Galt)
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To: tired&retired

STORM WARNING: NOAA forecasters estimate a 90% chance of geomagnetic storms on Jan. 9th
_____________________________________________________

Oh, so we’re going to have weather on January 9th. I’ll be sure and watch for it.


30 posted on 01/09/2014 8:28:40 AM PST by Artcore
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To: Yosemitest

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859

http://www.empactamerica.org/solar_emp.php


31 posted on 01/09/2014 8:29:08 AM PST by Kartographer ("We mutually pledge to each other our lives, our fortunes and our sacred honor.")
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To: 1_Rain_Drop

You need to line your thermal underwear with aluminum foil.


32 posted on 01/09/2014 8:31:51 AM PST by ladyjane
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To: catnipman
Joke if you want, but have you read Revelation 18 lately?
33 posted on 01/09/2014 8:31:53 AM PST by Yosemitest (It's Simple ! Fight, ... or Die !)
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To: palmer

Thank you for that explanation. Another question....is “polar vortex” a new term made up to sound cute, or is it term that’s been around forever? Is it different from an “arctic blast”?


34 posted on 01/09/2014 8:32:03 AM PST by grania
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To: Yosemitest

I understand, but this isn’t that event. These events are actually reasonably routine.


35 posted on 01/09/2014 8:35:38 AM PST by alancarp
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To: tired&retired
THANK GOD FOR OUR MAGNETOSPHERE!!


36 posted on 01/09/2014 8:39:49 AM PST by Slyfox (We want our pre-existing HEALTH INSURANCE back!)
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To: thackney

“Next to nothing.”

I agree 100% with you.

The difference with this storm is the size of the sunspot and the energy behind it for a potential CME that is stronger.

There are several factors which must be considered, just as though someone has a gun and is shooting at you.

1. Is it aimed at you, will it be a glancing blow, or a total miss?

2. Will it hit at night so the other side of the earth gets the impact.

3. The strength of our magnetosphere when it hits. The question arises if we have multiple CME’s hit us and it has not recovered from the prior hit, are we more vulnerable?

4. The strength of the CME blasted out from the sun.

Just as in predicting weather, there are many factors which must align in order for the “perfect storm” situation to occur. We are now in a reverse polarity with the sun thus the CME’s may cause a greater effect.


37 posted on 01/09/2014 8:43:47 AM PST by tired&retired
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To: ladyjane

BTTT

Don’t forget to post pictures as well.


38 posted on 01/09/2014 8:45:03 AM PST by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer)
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To: 1_Rain_Drop

“Are we supposed to take some precautions? ..... have a glass of wine?

Several....


39 posted on 01/09/2014 8:45:28 AM PST by tired&retired
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To: tired&retired

Global warming proves to be a bitch.


40 posted on 01/09/2014 8:45:44 AM PST by 353FMG
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To: grania
The last time it happen that I can remember is during Reagan's second inaugural. They canceled the parade because of the danger it would have on those marching in it, or watching it.
41 posted on 01/09/2014 8:48:04 AM PST by mware
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To: UB355
These stories are so hyper.

For the vast number of creatures on earth, what this means is that the Aurora will be visible farther South than normal and it will be more spectacular.

Catastrophism sells.

42 posted on 01/09/2014 8:48:22 AM PST by RobinOfKingston (Democrats--the party of Evil. Republicans--the party of Stupid.)
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To: Kartographer
Very interesting:
Don't forget about the March 1989 geomagnetic storm that knocked out power in Canada, with its Quebec blackout.
43 posted on 01/09/2014 8:49:56 AM PST by Yosemitest (It's Simple ! Fight, ... or Die !)
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To: tired&retired

Where are the little stick figures running in circles yelling...we’re all gonna die?


44 posted on 01/09/2014 8:50:02 AM PST by Conservative4Ever (Happy New Year 2014)
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To: grania
On very rare occasions they dump enough energy onto the planet to mess up electronics and power grids. See the Carrington Event where induced currents were high enough to zap telegraphers, arc telegraph lines and start the odd fire or two at telegraph stations.

At higher risk are communications satellites which are outside our protective atmosphere.

45 posted on 01/09/2014 8:51:50 AM PST by null and void (It is as if they all had one head. Too bad they don't all have one neck.)
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To: Yosemitest

Yosemitest

Thanks for very informative posts.


46 posted on 01/09/2014 8:54:35 AM PST by tired&retired
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To: tired&retired

Is this more hype? Is Obama trying to cause a panic so he can institute martial law?


47 posted on 01/09/2014 8:56:20 AM PST by Shery (in APO Land)
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To: palmer

“The polar vortex can stretch like the recent event or even break in two like more severe cold snaps in the 80’s and 90’s. The solar activity (high or low) does not cause anything directly.”

Some people believe differently. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ivcycdvO1A&feature=c4-overview&list=UUTiL1q9YbrVam5nP2xzFTWQ


48 posted on 01/09/2014 8:58:00 AM PST by CJ Wolf
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To: alancarp
This one is NOT "reasonably routine". According to the sources I've been reading, there hasn't been a solar flare of this magnitude in over 12 Years.
49 posted on 01/09/2014 9:01:17 AM PST by Yosemitest (It's Simple ! Fight, ... or Die !)
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To: Yosemitest
Yosemitest I read an article some time ago that I would like your input. Geomagnetism_Daily Movement of the North Magnetic Pole It is important to realize that the position of the North Magnetic Pole given for a particular year is an average position. The Magnetic Pole wanders daily around this average position and, on days when the magnetic field is disturbed, may be displaced by 80 km or more. Although the North Magnetic Pole's motion on any given day is irregular, the average path forms a well-defined oval. The diagram shows the average path on disturbed days. The cause of the North Magnetic Pole's diurnal motion is quite different than that of its secular motion. If we measure the Earth's magnetic field continually, such as is done at a magnetic observatory, we will see that it changes during the course of a day - sometimes slowly, sometimes rapidly. The ultimate cause of these fluctuations is the Sun. The Sun constantly emits charged particles that, on encountering the Earth's magnetic field, cause electric currents to flow in the ionosphere and magnetosphere. These electric currents disturb the magnetic field, resulting in a temporary shift in the North Magnetic Pole's position. The size and direction of this shift varies with time, in step with the magnetic field fluctuations.
50 posted on 01/09/2014 9:03:32 AM PST by tired&retired
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