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The Republican Party’s uphill path to 270 electoral votes in 2016
Washington Post ^ | 1-18-14 | Dan Balz

Posted on 01/19/2014 9:22:33 AM PST by afraidfortherepublic

A recent conversation with a veteran of GOP presidential campaigns raised this question: Which, if any, of the recent battleground states are likely to become more Republican by 2016? The consensus: very few.

That reality highlights one problem Republicans face as they seek to regain the White House after six years under President Obama. Lots of factors affect elections: the quality of the candidates, the state of the economy, the effectiveness of the campaigns. But in a country whose demographics continue to change, Republicans will begin this campaign with one significant disadvantage.

Over the past three decades, the political leanings of many states have shifted dramatically. What once was a sizable Republican advantage in the electoral college has become a decided Democratic advantage.

One way to look at this is by comparing two overlapping 20-year periods. In the first, 1980 through 2000, Republicans won four of six presidential elections. In the second, 1992 through 2012, Democrats won four of six.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Editorial; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2014election; 2016election; 2016issues; balz; conservatism; cruz2016; demagogicparty; diversity; election2014; election2016; elections; hitlery; hrossperot; illegals; johnanderson; latinovote; memebuilding; paleolibs; partisanmediashill; partisanmediashills; patbuchanan; ralphnader; randsconcerntrolls; republicans; thirdpartytrolls
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1 posted on 01/19/2014 9:22:33 AM PST by afraidfortherepublic
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To: afraidfortherepublic
Why should anyone vote for Republican when they can get the same results voting Democrat?
Yeah, they've got an uphill battle: they stand for nothing!
2 posted on 01/19/2014 9:24:21 AM PST by OneWingedShark (Q: Why am I here? A: To do Justly, to love mercy, and to walk humbly with my God.)
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To: afraidfortherepublic
The GOPe is busy chopping the lower (base) supports off the ladder to 270.

I suspect they will not reform themselves and will crash to the ground again.

3 posted on 01/19/2014 9:26:06 AM PST by Paladin2
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To: afraidfortherepublic

Lose Willard and any other liberal who “needs” or “deserves” the GOP nomination to satisfy an over stuffed ego or victimhood...


4 posted on 01/19/2014 9:26:38 AM PST by Tennessee Nana
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To: afraidfortherepublic

We’re fighting the products of public education and outright democrat fraud. It’s going to take another Reagan to turn things around. ‘I want to believe that a miracle is possible.’ But the chances are very hazy and may, in fact, be gone.


5 posted on 01/19/2014 9:31:29 AM PST by onedoug
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To: afraidfortherepublic

Why, when your opponent is the party of incompetence and perversion, should it be an uphill battle?

Its because we ceded the infrastructure of the war of ideas. Schools and universities, the news and entertainment media.

Who controls these controls the politics. We’re always just hanging on for the next election, hoping for a miracle that will turn the Titanic around while our enemies raise and educate our children, write our history, decide what happened and what didn’t, whats important and what isn’t, and define what is good and what is bad.

The road back to sanity is a long road that requires us to regain control of the education of our children, establish news sources that we trust, and forgive me if I suggest you get your family into church. If the church of your childhood has gone over to the dark side, find another. But take control of the moral education as well as the academic education of your family.


6 posted on 01/19/2014 9:32:16 AM PST by marron
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To: afraidfortherepublic

Time to practice saying,
“President Hillary Clinton.”
The GOP could not beat my cat running as a dem, barring some divine intervention...


7 posted on 01/19/2014 9:33:32 AM PST by bill1952 (Choice is an illusion created between those with power - and those without)
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To: onedoug

We need someone who would make Ronald Reagan look like a wimp.

God bless Ronald Reagan.


8 posted on 01/19/2014 9:34:14 AM PST by laplata (Liberals don't get it .... their minds are diseased.)
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To: afraidfortherepublic

Ohio is moving to R.

That means for gop to win, they need all the romney states plus Ohio and Michigan and florida for a 269-269 tie with the house of representatives deciding the election.

Winning the romney states plus ohio and FL is doable.

Michigan is the question.

Another path is OH, FL plus VA and something else.


9 posted on 01/19/2014 9:35:57 AM PST by staytrue
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To: afraidfortherepublic

With 109 locked up in perpetuity (Cal, Ill, NY) the Dems start the race with a huge lead. Then add in Mass, RI, MD, DC, etc and they’re halfway to a win without spending a dime.

What is interesting to me is that many of the states listed above are now exporting liberals to other states turning them blue.
BUT the exporting state remains or grows more liberal due to immigration.


10 posted on 01/19/2014 9:37:22 AM PST by nascarnation (I'm hiring Jack Palladino to investigate Baraq's golf scores.)
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To: afraidfortherepublic
As of right now, Hillary or any other liberal have 210 electoral votes ALREADY locked up for 2016...

Finding 60 more will not be that difficult...

When factoring in fraud and cheating...she's a shoe in...

Of course 2016 is still a few years away and anything can happen....

Not holding my breath...

11 posted on 01/19/2014 9:37:32 AM PST by Popman ("Resistance to Tyrants is Obedience to God" - Thomas Jefferson)
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To: bill1952

“The GOP could not beat my cat running as a dem”

I’d much prefer to have your cat in the White House than Hillary. I’ll even contribute some catnip.

It’s clear that the Left has already certified Hillary Clinton as the next president. While I’m no fan of Christie, the glee with which the mainstream media has ripped him apart shows that someone out there thought he had a shot of winning.


12 posted on 01/19/2014 9:38:34 AM PST by Junk Silver
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To: marron

Great post! Good analysis.

The reason the average millennial knows more about climate change than the US Constitution is the education system and the media.


13 posted on 01/19/2014 9:38:54 AM PST by nascarnation (I'm hiring Jack Palladino to investigate Baraq's golf scores.)
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To: marron

No mention here of rampant voter fraud which seems to be occuring in an increasing number of states.

PLUS, I’ve been visitning my 100 year old mother in her assisted living facility this week and also chatting with some of the other residents. I really don’t think that 1 in 5 should be voting. But, we all know that all of them are with the assistance of Democrat operatives.


14 posted on 01/19/2014 9:39:19 AM PST by afraidfortherepublic
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To: staytrue
Ohio is moving to R. That means for gop to win, they need all the romney states plus Ohio and Michigan and florida for a 269-269 tie with the house of representatives deciding the election. Winning the romney states plus ohio and FL is doable. Michigan is the question. Another path is OH, FL plus VA and something else.

Do you think a protectionistic platform would seal the deal for the Rust Belt states?

15 posted on 01/19/2014 9:41:25 AM PST by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)
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To: Junk Silver
It’s clear that the Left has already certified Hillary Clinton as the next president.

I'm not as convinced yet. Waiting to see where the Chicago Mob lines up. Watch Axlegrease, Gibbs, and Plouffy. No doubt in my mind they could torpedo the Clinton Crime Family once again if they choose to.

16 posted on 01/19/2014 9:41:49 AM PST by nascarnation (I'm hiring Jack Palladino to investigate Baraq's golf scores.)
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To: afraidfortherepublic

Blue states need to be re-flipped to Red.
CO
NH
FL
OH

A long term plan needs to be created to start moving more to Red.


17 posted on 01/19/2014 9:42:49 AM PST by Zathras
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To: Junk Silver

Another reason they are attacking Christie...he is the leader of the GOP governors Assn and the gop governors are accomplishing reforms.

Best way to stop this is to take down the leader.


18 posted on 01/19/2014 9:43:20 AM PST by what's up
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To: afraidfortherepublic
But in a country whose demographics continue to change, Republicans will begin this campaign with one significant disadvantage.

So how's that Hispandering working out for you, Stupid Party?

19 posted on 01/19/2014 9:43:23 AM PST by Nea Wood
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To: staytrue

You can pretty much forget Virginia.

I’d say Michigan and Colorado are the best bets to try and get. Remember, Paul and Cruz have been running ahead of Hitlery in Colorado recently, and Michigan may prove to be a big upset victory for Republicans in 2014.


20 posted on 01/19/2014 9:44:12 AM PST by Viennacon
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To: Popman

CA - 55
NY - 31
IL - 21
NJ - 15
MA -12
CT - 7
WA - 11
OR - 7
PA - 21
HI - 4

184 lib vote without even trying...

21 posted on 01/19/2014 9:44:48 AM PST by Popman ("Resistance to Tyrants is Obedience to God" - Thomas Jefferson)
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To: Tennessee Nana

It is not “Willard’s” fault.

It is really hard to defeat an incumbent president.

It has been done 3 times in the last hundred years (Hoover, Carter, Bush 41).

And it took the great depression to get Hoover out, the almost great depression to get Carter out and a recession plus Ross Perot to get Bush 41 out.


22 posted on 01/19/2014 9:45:05 AM PST by staytrue
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To: afraidfortherepublic

Say goodbye to freedom.


23 posted on 01/19/2014 9:46:33 AM PST by SoFloFreeper
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To: Zhang Fei

It would seal the deal that many “conservatives” are economic welfare cases. I say no to protectionism. Can I call you a new deal FDR Republican?


24 posted on 01/19/2014 9:49:09 AM PST by impimp
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To: Zhang Fei

“Do you think a protectionistic platform would seal the deal for the Rust Belt states?”

No. Protectionism just is not high on the list of anyone.
There is a large anti wall street feeling and despite what everyone has been led to believe, wall street money and votes go democrat.

I think in an year without an incumbent president, OH and FL will turn republican, making for a very close election in 2016


25 posted on 01/19/2014 9:50:19 AM PST by staytrue
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To: afraidfortherepublic

paints an ugly picture.


26 posted on 01/19/2014 9:53:28 AM PST by wiggen (The teacher card. When the racism card just won't work.)
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To: Zathras

WI


27 posted on 01/19/2014 9:54:16 AM PST by afraidfortherepublic
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To: afraidfortherepublic
Run TedCruz/RandPaul. The RNC pretends they want the hispanic vote?....TedCruz brings the Cuban vote plus. And the younger vote would be impacted by Rand Paul's very strong voice against spying on us and stupid wars of global domination. So would the senior vote that first got fed up with our global policies in the 1960s.

One wonders if the RNC really wants to win.

28 posted on 01/19/2014 9:54:23 AM PST by grania
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To: Zhang Fei
Do you think a protectionistic platform would seal the deal for the Rust Belt states?

The answer to that is yes. One of the parties is eventually going to seize that issue and it might as well be the Republicans. If they can tie it to income tax rate reductions and economic stimulation it will be a winner.

29 posted on 01/19/2014 9:58:47 AM PST by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: afraidfortherepublic
The bigger issue is: What exactly does this country gain by electing Republican presidents?

The last two Republicans in the White House were both named Bush: George H.W. Bush and his son George W. Bush. I be hard-pressed to come up with two individuals who have done more to damage the name and reputation of the Republican Party than these two.

Let's keep in mind that for most of the eight years that the younger Bush was in office, he also had a Republican House and Senate. And yet his tenure in office was a complete disaster in terms of foreign/military policy abroad and crony capitalism here at home -- which is how we ended up with a jug-eared idiot in the White House today.

30 posted on 01/19/2014 10:00:26 AM PST by Alberta's Child ("I've never seen such a conclave of minstrels in my life.")
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To: central_va
One of the parties is eventually going to seize that issue and it might as well be the Republicans.

That's where you're wrong. Neither major party has any interest in this issue, since both of them are firmly in the back pockets of major international corporate interests.

Interestingly, "protectionism" is likely to become increasingly irrelevant as the value of the U.S. dollar slides and it becomes more and more attractive to manufacture products here in the U.S. over time. I read a fascinating article a couple of months ago about this subject, and the author made the case that by 2016 it will be more cost-effective to manufacture most consumer products sold in the U.S. in Alabama and South Carolina than in coastal China.

31 posted on 01/19/2014 10:03:58 AM PST by Alberta's Child ("I've never seen such a conclave of minstrels in my life.")
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To: impimp
It would seal the deal that many “conservatives” are economic welfare cases. I say no to protectionism. Can I call you a new deal FDR Republican?

I think Reagan crushed Mondale because of the Harley Davidson tariffs and the voluntary import restrictions imposed on Japanese automakers, among other protectionistic policies he backed. Ultimately, I think this was important because it sent a signal to Rust Belt manufacturing workers being shellacked by layoffs that the GOP cared about them. While free trade is not a bad overall policy, exceptions might have to be made as a concession to electoral trends. I'm not talking about Brazilian-style economic autarky, but targeted tariffs and sanctions to address public concerns.

32 posted on 01/19/2014 10:05:00 AM PST by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)
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To: Alberta's Child

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304202204579256120230694210


33 posted on 01/19/2014 10:05:32 AM PST by nascarnation (I'm hiring Jack Palladino to investigate Baraq's golf scores.)
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To: afraidfortherepublic

We’re going Galt. The country is going Detroit.


34 posted on 01/19/2014 10:06:35 AM PST by Flick Lives (Got a problem with the government? Have a complaint. Get a free IRS audit!)
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To: afraidfortherepublic
the quality of the candidates

Start with that.


Another major problem is the GOP primary situation.

Another major problem is the GOP message.

35 posted on 01/19/2014 10:07:35 AM PST by TomGuy
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To: nascarnation

That’s remarkable, isn’t it?


36 posted on 01/19/2014 10:08:29 AM PST by Alberta's Child ("I've never seen such a conclave of minstrels in my life.")
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To: Alberta's Child

Every now and then there’s a bit of hope.


37 posted on 01/19/2014 10:09:56 AM PST by nascarnation (I'm hiring Jack Palladino to investigate Baraq's golf scores.)
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To: Zhang Fei

Reduced or non existent tariffs are good if the exporter’s standard of living is the same or better than your countries standard of living. However what we have now is a progressive income tax combined with low(or no) import tariffs which is importing a 3rd standard of living into the USA. The worst possible combination.


38 posted on 01/19/2014 10:10:28 AM PST by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: afraidfortherepublic

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/195889-expanded-2014-senate-map-boosts-gop-confidence


39 posted on 01/19/2014 10:10:56 AM PST by LibLieSlayer (FROM MY COLD, DEAD HANDS! BETTER DEAD THAN RED!)
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To: afraidfortherepublic

Dems capture the states with the largest cities and they win, plain and simple. We the people don’t choose, they the dependency class do.

One man one vote is a big fail, when the “one” man is an idiot.


40 posted on 01/19/2014 10:12:44 AM PST by 12th_Monkey (In an alternate universe Obama still dips ice cream)
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To: nascarnation
There is another benefit. As costs continue to increase in China, Keer can ship yarn to manufacturers in Central America, which, unlike companies in China, can send finished clothes duty-free to the U.S.

Central America has lower wage costs than China, so that's an additional benefit. Shipping costs obviously go down some, as well as turnaround time.

41 posted on 01/19/2014 10:13:51 AM PST by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)
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To: TomGuy
You raise an excellent point, and it points to an issue that will always work against any national party that looks to appeal to upstanding conservative citizens.

Let's face it -- Most people who spend a career in politics are seriously damaged in some way, and when you get to the upper reaches of government you end up with a veritable freak show of disordered personalities.

The problem is that a fouled-up freak appeals to mainstream Democratic voters, but turns off a lot of conservatives who rightly question whether it's in the country's best interest to have people like this in powerful positions.

42 posted on 01/19/2014 10:14:17 AM PST by Alberta's Child ("I've never seen such a conclave of minstrels in my life.")
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To: Alberta's Child

“Let’s keep in mind that for most of the eight years that the younger Bush was in office, he also had a Republican House and Senate.”

You are just barely right. From jan 2001 to july 2001, he had a 50-50 senate with Jim Jeffords on our side and also had Olympia Snowe, Arlen Specter, and Lincoln Chaffee. From July 2001 to Jan. 2003, the senate was 51-49 dem. when Jeffords swithed.

Only from Jan 2003 to Jan 2007 did bush have the house and senate.

Although you are just barely right, the reality is Bush had the house and senate for half the time.


43 posted on 01/19/2014 10:22:41 AM PST by staytrue
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To: Zhang Fei

Reagan spoke with a forked tongue when it came to trade. I believe that the protectionist actions he took were more than overshadowed by the FTA between Canada and the US.


44 posted on 01/19/2014 10:33:58 AM PST by impimp
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To: OneWingedShark
I think Pennsylvania and Minnesota could break our way. The iron range and the anthracite area in these States have a lot of God fearing gun loving White ethnics and if these ares turn and they just might pull a West Virginia at some point it could flip these states. Also the Dem areas (twin cities and Philly and Pitts are losing population relative to the rest of the states. Also watch the suburbs they could be coming back there.
45 posted on 01/19/2014 10:43:39 AM PST by amnestynone (Lindsey Graham is feckless, duplicitous, treacherous, double dealing backstabbing Corksucker.)
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To: afraidfortherepublic

A good first step would be ditching Boehner.

He has neutralized the House and consequently the Republican party.


46 posted on 01/19/2014 10:48:10 AM PST by Ray76 (How modern liberals think: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eaE98w1KZ-c)
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To: marron

>> Its because we ceded the infrastructure of the war of ideas.

They’re about to cede the country to foreigners. Republicans must know they will not be the electoral beneficiary of Amnesty. The US will be harmed immeasurably yet the Republicans forge ahead with the Amnesty agenda.

Republicans have ceded their brains to Democrats.


47 posted on 01/19/2014 10:52:34 AM PST by Ray76 (How modern liberals think: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eaE98w1KZ-c)
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To: afraidfortherepublic

If we lose Texas, that will just about be it.


48 posted on 01/19/2014 10:57:32 AM PST by TheGipperWasRight
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To: afraidfortherepublic

2012 Election Results
With the presidential electoral power base being in the big cities, the in each of the states must demand that rural voters have an equal voice in presidential elections.

The best way would be to distribute Electoral Votes proportionally by county.

49 posted on 01/19/2014 11:04:51 AM PST by Oliviaforever
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To: Zhang Fei
"Do you think a protectionistic platform would seal the deal for the Rust Belt states? "

Rust Belt ? Nah. The whole country would vote for the Republicans. The GOP threw the working family middle class under the bus by exporting their jobs with government to government 'fleece trade' agreements. The opening is there. Obama wants more free trade but the GOP Wall Streeters make the calls. Money = speech and they have a lot of money. So expect nothing from the GOP except Obamacare and Benghazi, rinse and repeat.

50 posted on 01/19/2014 11:34:55 AM PST by ex-snook (God is Love)
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