Oklahoma House Speaker moving toward Senate bid (T.W. Shannon)

The Hill ^ | January 21, 2014 | Alexandra Jaffe

[Viennacon]

Good. Because if that happened to one of our candidates, they’d be DOA. Only the left gets away with it.

[Viennacon]

Yeah, I know Walsh made mistakes and got caught out, but he is a solid Tea Partier on the politics. He wouldn’t endorse Goel if he didn’t think she’d be good. He really wants to pay Suckworth back too, as do I. That woman is contemptible, wheeling herself out of the hearing while the Benghazi family gave testimonies.

I am really hoping Bost can unseat Bolshevik Enyart. I’ve enjoyed his antics on the House floor, calling out the Illinois rats.

As an aside, I am aware he’s unlikely to win, but if McKinley jumps into a rematch with Robyn Kelly in Jesse Jackson’s district, I’d be interested to see how well he’d do. No Obama on the ticket, Kelly sucks, and the recent shouting match at an Al Sharpton townhall that McKinley attended tells me there is brewing discontent among Chicago blacks with the entrenched political class. They hate Rahm Emmanuel in particular.

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

CD-8, Walsh ran ahead of Romney which surprised the hell out of me given his difficulties. Makes me think the district is more amenable than the Obama percentage would indicate (When you run ahead of normal performance like Obama did in IL and CA, anomalies can occur, there’s no way that CD 10 is actually marginally more conservative than CD 8) and that Suckworth is something of a paper tiger. I suspect Walsh would have held on under the old lines. Goel was recruited to run by the “evil” Pete Sessions so I’m surprised I’m not seeing tons of people bash her and tout her opponent. If Auh2o’s financial figures are accurate, that’s not a race, Goel wins and has a good shot in November.

I heard Walsh worked the district well and probably got points for good constituency service.

And as for the reasons why Walsh los in 2012t, yeah, not paying child support may have been one of them—maybe Republicans in IL-08 shouldn’t have been scouring the unemployment lines or the bankruptcy filings for their nominee. While Duckworth is a scumbag, Walsh has no one to blame for his downfall but his own irresponsibility and dishonesty. He never warned the GOP about his irresponsibility, and then compounded it by lending his campaign money that he could have used to make his child-support payments:

The Republicans basically punted on hunting up a top-flight candidate for this seat in 2010, ironic, as IL-8 was one of IL's most Republican seats for many years. Walsh's win over Melissa Bean came as a big shock.

[AuH2ORepublican]

I’m not sure if he’s half black and half Native American, or if one or both of his parents is half black and half Native American, but he’s an honest-to-goodness enrolled member of the Chickasaw Tribe. He’s no Fauxcahontas.

[Impy]

Yes, constituent service matters, a lot. If you see someone underperforming in their district, bad service is probably a key reason why. And good service will up the winning margin.

Walsh rode the tea party wave to primary victory in 2010 against an uninspiring field, the failure to find true top-tier candidates to run (either in 2006, 08, 10 or now) is curious. But because of the seat’s then GOP lean I wasn’t shocked at his victory, which was very narrow with a Green costing Bean victory.

[BillyBoy]

Walsh beat Bean partly because she turned out to be one of the biggest hypocrites ever on the constituent services issue. She won an upset over Congressman Phil Crane thanks to Ray LaThug stabbing us in the back and talking up how old and senile Crane was, and Bean hammered him to death about how he had "lost touch" with his district after decades in Washington and was never home in Illinois to meet with his constituents. Within a single term, she went to Washington and promptly did the same thing. At least Crane had the excuse of getting cozy after decades on the job. That liberal witch Bean became an elitist "I know whats best for your little people" Washington insider overnight.

I've made no endorsement for who should replace Coburn in Oklahoma. Whoever wins will likely have an easy time holding the seat for however they want, so we should make sure the candidate is a rock solid PROVEN conservative across the board. Lots of freepers say T.W. Shannon is a great conservative state house speaker, but they said the same thing about Marco Rubio so I'm taking it with a grain of salt until I can look at his record (thankfully I don't think we'll end up with a two way race of Shannon vs. horrible DIABLO traitor like we had in FL with the race coming down to Rubio vs. Crist). Lots of freepers love Bridenstine. If the reason to back him is because "Mark Levin says so", I give it no weight and quite frankly I'm sick of that argument from Levin cultists. I don't doubt Bridenstine looks like a solid conservative on paper though. But Shannon also looks good on paper thus far, and seems to be a legitimate rising star and is indeed of mixed black and native American ancestry, it's not made up for PR purposes, he has an interesting life story. I'll research this primary closer before taking sides.

[BillyBoy]

Googling the question, I found that Jan. 2013 was when Bridenstine became a Congressman and Shannon became OK Speaker, so they’ve been both only been at their current post for a year. Of course, Shannon has been a state rep. since 2007, so we have six years of his record to look at, and only one year for Bridenstine.

Congressman James Lankford is seeking the Senate nomination as well, and has been in the House since 2011. Funny thing about his candidacy... his wikipedia page was much more interesting than his Senate campaign website! This guy needs a better PR person.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Impy, have you seen a map of the redrawn IL-08? It doesn’t include any precincts in McHenry or Lake Counties (which used to be the Republican heart of the district). The CD takes in Dem-leaning NW Cook County (but not GOP Barrington and Palatine Townships), Dem-leaning precincts in NE Kane County, and marginal or Dem-leaning NE DuPage County (including the part of Chicago that goes into that county). I would guess that in 2004 Bush got like 45%-47% in the redrawn IL-08; Bush had gotten 56% in the old IL-08. I think that Bush got 43%-45% in the new IL-10, meaning that your hunch probably was correct and the new IL-08 was more Democrat than the new IL-10 only in 2012, not before, but the new IL-08 still has quite the Democrat lean to it, and will be difficult to capture. But then again, Duckworth is a terrible politician, so maybe Goel can let Duckworth defeat herself.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Oops, forgot to include the map of the IL CDs so that you can see the redrawn IL-08: http://nationalatlas.gov/printable/images/pdf/congdist/pagecgd113_il.pdf

[Impy]

I go

https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/map

there for my district viewing needs. So glad I found that site.

I didn’t realize that territory is apparently so bad (except for increasingly Hispanic Carpentersville and I guess Elgin is headed that way too, the GOP mayor lost in 2011 to one Dave Kaptain on whom’s party affiliation I can find nothing, I hate non-partisan elections), do you think Kirk and Brady carried it? Until recently (2006) I don’t think there were any rat state legislators in the area.

BTW I believe the portion of Chi that’s in DuPage is almost entirely part of the airport.

Given that Walsh only lost by about 9 points with Obama on the ballot winning by double that, I think we have a good shot.

[AuH2ORepublican]

“Given that Walsh only lost by about 9 points with Obama on the ballot winning by double that, I think we have a good shot.”

---

Depends on your definition of “good shot.” Tough district for us, even if some incumbent state reps get elected in parts of the district. Federal elections are different.

But if we’re winning there in the gubernatorial race, and Duckworth is as incompetent as she was in prior elections, I guess we have a shot.

[Impy]

I would wager, I don’t know, a 45% chance at victory? Think that’s too rosy?

How would you size up the IL seats in terms of takeover likelihood?

[AuH2ORepublican]

We’ll have to see how the races develop, and I haven’t really analyzed all the candidates, but at this stage I’d rank the Dem-held seats in the following order of likelihood of GOP takeover:

1. IL-12 (Enyart): Downstate district gave Romney 48.2%, trending Republican, should see lower black turnout in East St. Louis area, Enyart is a freshman and liberal even on social issues (his predecessor, Jerry Costello, was fairly conservative on social issues), conservative GOP state Representative Mike Bost is a credible challenger (albeit a bit controversial due to his “rant” as a state legislator) and won’t have to worry about a primary (no one else filed), there’s a Green Party candidate who may take votes away from Enyart. As of Sept. 30, Enyart had outraised Bost by $588,000 to $78,000, so Bost needs to get moving on fundraising. I’m optimistic about picking up this seat (60% odds?), which the Democrats failed to protect adequately thinking that Costello wouldn’t retire.

2. IL-10, Lake and Cook Counties, 41.1% for Romney, Democrat Schneider is a freshman who barely beat then-Congressman Dold in 2012 (50.5%-49.5%) with Obama on the ballot, Dold is the only Republican running and has been competitive in fundraising. I think that Dold’s odds of winning are slightly above 50% (maybe 55%?).

3. IL-17: Rock Island/Moline/Peoria/Rockford gerrymander, 40.6% for Romney, freshman incumbent Cheri Bustos (who is no slouch as a candidate), Republican ex-Congressman Bobby Schilling is a good candidate but needs to improve his fundraising, Schilling only Republican running (Paulbot dropped out), turnout will be better for us this time. Schilling surprised me by beating Hare comfortably in 2010, so while on paper Bustos appears to have a big advantage, I’d give us 45% odds of winning.

4. IL-08: Cook/DuPage/Kane CD that gave Romney 40.9%, freshman incumbent Duckworth is far from impressive as a campaigner, political newcomer Manju Goel has raised money and I suspect can raise a lot more (particularly in the Indian-American community). Tough district, but with the GOP gubernatorial candidate (whoever he ends up being) running strongly, right now I’d give us a 40% chance of winning.

5. IL-11, Cook, DuPage, Will, Kane and Kendall CD, 40.6% for Romney, fairly strong RAT incumbent in Bill Foster (a freshman, but used to represent a GOP-leaning district a bit to the west), GOP primary among state rep Darlene Senger, Grundy County Board Member Chris Balkeme (Grundy County is just outside the district) and a few political newcomers who haven’t raised any money. Very tough race for us, but our gubernatorial nominee should do well here, so I’d give us 30% odds of winning (maybe 35% if Senger is our nominee, but at most 25% for Balkema (who doesn’t have Senger’s electoral experience and, being from Grundy County, may just as well be from Rock Island for many Chicago suburbanites).

6. IL-03, white Anglo Catholic neighborhoods in South Chicago and suburbs to the west, 42.6% for Romney, entrenched, socially conservative Democrat incumbent in Dan Lipinski, unknown GOP candidates with no money. If this seat was open, or if a good Republican candidate was running , it would be potentially competitive, but as it is we could only win if there’s some sort of black-swan event. At most 5% chance of winning the seat even if our gubernatorial carries the district (which is possible, but not likely).

What do you all think?

[PhilCollins]

AuH2Republican, why did you say that the 3rd District doesn’t have any good candidates? The best candidate, in that race, is Diane Harris, and I’m her campaign manager. She’s pro-flat tax, pro-spending cuts, pro-life, pro-gun rights, anti-Obamacare, and anti-illegal alien. She was endorsed by three former U.S. Senate candidats, Al Salvi, Chad Koppie, and Mike Psak. Please read her site, harrisforcongress3.com.

[AuH2ORepublican]

I meant “good” as in “having a chance to win.” The Green Papers lists her as not having raised *any* money as of Sepember 30. She could be as qualified to serve in Congress as Peter Roskam was when he ran a few years ago, and it wouldn’t matter if she doesn’t raise a crapload of money to pay for advertising in that very expensive media market. Dan Lipinski will be extremely tough to beat in that district, and it will take more than a good personality and a strong platform to do so—she needs lots of money.

But you’re correct that I spoke without first seeing Diane Harris’s website (as I said initially, I haven’t researched all the candidates). I have to be honest: Harris, a black Baptist from Will County, sounds like a terrific candidate for a state rep or state senate seat from Will County, but will be at a big disadvantage against Lipinski running in Polish and other ethnic Catholic neighborhoods in South Chicago (which have been represented in Congress by him or his father for over 30 years). The new IL-03 is one of those districts that BillyBoy always mentions in which Republicans can do well in the suburbs but then get swamped in the Chicago precincts. Against Lipinski, I would run a Polish guy or gal from South Chicago with appeal to suburban voters, and even then Lipinski would have the advantage.

[Impy]

CD 3 would be interesting if it was open and the rats nominated a moonbat and the Republican was well-funded.

But beating Lipinksi Jr this year, I’m gonna go 1%. Though it voted slightly more GOP for President than any the gerrymandered seats we lost, it’s got Madiganinstani precincts.

The 11th, I just don’t see happening. Foster is easily the strongest rat of these. I think Balkema is justifying his run because he works in Joilet, for Caterpillar inc, so it’s not as if he’s completely without tie to the district.

The others I can see victory in. The 12th, even money at least.

Schneider was a lesser tier choice, I think he literally won the rat primary against fellow nobodies because he had the least weird name. And he only won in November cause of coattails. You may be right to be rosy on Dold, but I don’t know, my gut says under 50.

Good points on Schilling, I believe McCain % shrank 4 points with the remap. Schilling still would have won in 2010 with a 4 point swing against (though it would have been thanks to a Green).

[AuH2ORepublican]

Yes, as I acknowledged in a prior post, Balkema has ties to the district in that he works in Joliet. But Joliet is in the fringes of a district centered in suburban Cook and DuPage Counties, and Balkema has never run for office (or even voted) within the district, and Grundy is (fairly or unfairly) seen as the sticks by Chicago suburbanites (such as those who constitute the overwhelming majority of voters in the district). We’re much better off running suburban state rep Senger. (And, yes, it still would be uphill for Senger: I place her odds of beating Foster at 35%.)

[Impy]

Well, it is the sticks. ;p

Senger probably will win the primary.

[Osage Orange]

Shannon in, Bridenstine out for Senate Race CREATED 7:16 AM

TULSA, Okla. (AP) Oklahoma House Speaker T.W. Shannon has formally entered the GOP race for the open U.S. Senate seat in Oklahoma, while Republican U.S. Rep. Jim Bridenstine said he won't be running for the position.

Bridenstine said Wednesday he wouldn't run for the Senate seat left open by Sen. Tom Coburn's resignation. The first-term congressman made his announcement moments before Shannon formally declared his candidacy at an event in Tulsa.

Shannon will join two-term U.S. Rep. James Lankford and two lesser-known Republicans in the race for the GOP nomination. A Democrat hasn't been elected to an open U.S. Senate seat in Oklahoma since David Boren in 1978, and Republicans are heavily favored to maintain it. No Democrats have formally announced.

[Osage Orange]

Boren ain’t running..........