Posted on 01/25/2014 7:29:37 PM PST by cunning_fish
Mikhail Gorbachev, the former leader of the Soviet Union, piped up on Thursday with a wake-up call for the Western world: Ukraine is now everybody’s problem. The turmoil in its capital, where pitched battles have raged all week between protestors and police, “threatens not only Ukraine and her neighbors, but Europe and the entire world,” he wrote in an open letter to the U.S. and Russian Presidents. He was certainly right about Europe, which now has a real dilemma on its hands. The only question is whether Ukraine’s neighbors can do much to resolve it. For the West, there are few good options. Much of the influence the E.U. had over Ukraine was lost in November, when the country’s president, Viktor Yanukovych, refused to sign a trade and association deal with the E.U. That is what sparked the protests against him, while also bringing a flood of recriminations down on him from the West. Since then, he has practically become an outcast in Europe, so any further Western pressure “would have little impact,” says Alex Brideau, a Ukraine expert at the Eurasia Group, a consulting firm based in New York City. “His preference is the hardline approach rather than compromise.”
Russia, by contrast, holds a much stronger hand. After
(Excerpt) Read more at world.time.com ...
Not only anarchy. Protests are clearly anti-Russian in it’s nature and it makes perfect sense for Russia to sanction a country allowing it. Georgia comes to mind. Saakashvili has campaigned on anti-Russian agenda at the time but was surprised to find his nationals (1 in 5 Georgians were working illegally in Russia sending their paychecks home!) deported and Georgian imports to Russia (80% of Georgian exports) banned. He has responded supporting Chechen terrorists, supplemented economic losses with US aid but the rest is still history.
Nobody in Ukraine gives a tinkers dam what Gorby has to say. Hard line Russians consider him a traitor
Ukraine reported that they exported 38 million tons of grains this year. They also export many tons of iron ore steel and coal to Europe and North Africa
Let’s see how they do it under EU regulations. At least Russians won’t close businesses for using conventional light bulbs or misrepresenting females and minorities within workforce. A concept of aggressive unions, minimal wage are alien to them too, just like compliance with halal norms in food industry.
The issue as I understand it is opening a trade agreement with the EU and maybe participating in the Schengen Agreement, not ceding sovereignty. They have had enough of that.
Do you really believe they can be allowed to be a part of Schengen agreement? Brussel is not that insane to open borders to a nation of prostitutes travelling to India and Mexico to escape poverty.
As for a Ukrainian capacity to trade with EU I have pretty much summarized earlier. You haven’t said a thing proving that I was wrong.
Yeah grain exports will make them rich, and those “many tons of iron” sure sound impressive... kinda... not really.
Politicians over there (both gov and opposition) must understand that If they go on with this mess, people will keep revolting (now against Yanuk, next year against current opposition) and in the long term everyone will lose out, politicians, oligarchs, security forces, If people are dirt poor and own nothing, you can't even steal from them... Russia and “west” should forget for a while about geopolitical games and help them stand on their own feet because If shit hits the fan, there will be millions of refugees fleeing in both directions and after such collapse the country will become a huge black hole, which will need to be heavily subsidized by both sides for decades.
Yanukovich may have been elected democratically, but there’s fear, now turning into certainty, that the next election will not be fair. Below are the key highlights of his presidency, hopefully giving credence to the notion that it’s more than a simple protest against an unpopular president and that he has lost any legitimacy of a democratic leader:
- in 2010 he rewrote the constitution, changing the country from what they call parliamentary-presidential (parliament in charge) to presidential-parliamentary (office of the president is the highest seat of power) This was allowed to happen because Ukraine doesn’t have a truly independent judicial system. The police, the judges, bureaucrats- it’s all corrupt.
- in 2011, he jailed his main opposition rival former prime minister Y. Tymoshenko, as well as former Interior Affairs Minister Y. Lutsenko on trumped up charges. Former, for damages that were caused to the state when she negotiated a gas deal with Russia in 2009. Latter, for charges of “abuse of office” - allegations for things like overpaying $5000 to his driver, to giving a handgun as a present to a retiring officer, etc. International community was quick to condemn these arrests as politically motivated.
- November 30 2013 took it to a totally new level when police was ordered to disperse what until then had been a two week old, small, and very peaceful by today’s standard, protest. Police were chasing the protesters for blocks, beating them when they’re down. Everything that followed - the tractor, the molotovs, was the result of seeing images like these http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zdRSXESoQd0
- on January 16 2014, Yanukovich fraction in the parliament voted for the so-called “dictatorial laws”. Voting was done without allowing the lawmakers to previously read the legislature, by show of hand, and counting of the votes in 5 seconds. Among others, the laws disallowed protests that have not been “sanctioned” by the government, introduced 2 year prison terms for defamation (if you recall, Ukraine doesn’t have an independent judicial system so this is viewed as direct threat by the free press in Ukraine); 10-15 year terms for mass disruption and very broadly defined “extremist activities”. Everybody and their mother in the international community have condemned these laws as undemocratic. Btw, the Tea Party would definitely fall in Yanukovich definition of “extremist”.
This list doesn’t include gross cases of corruption (Yanukovich’s son,a dentist by profession, became a multi millionaire, +$100M USD, within the last few years), intimidations and attacks on journalists and opponents (ex. Chornovol), and now most recently, use of live ammunition on the protesters, as well as kidnappings and tortures, ex. I. Lutsenko, Niskoguz, Verbitsky (dead)
As recent mass demonstrations across Ukraine show, the 100,000 “extremists” are now backed by almost half of the nation. In the other Ukrainian thread there’s a map of cities that the protesters now control who are refusing to follow Yanukovich’s government.
There have been cases where a democratically elected leader becomes a tyrant. A certain Austrian in the 1930s comes to mind. If one seizes power democratically, what certainty is there that he will relinquish it later on? None, unless there are strong institutions already in place, and Ukraine obviously doesn’t have them. At least in the US you know Barry will be going in 2016. One of the key demands of the protesters are free democratic elections. The Ukrainians protests feared, and now they know, that a fair democratic is not possible under this guy. Thus we see what we see
Sorry for the wordy response. :)
Your post was well thought out, I was thinking it warranted a decent reply
There are several points in your post that are simply not true, lets stick to the facts here:
- in 2010 he did not rewrite the constitution, in fact the constitution was rewritten in 2004 by invalid amendments, that were overturned in 2010
- the charges against Tymoshenko are very much substantiated. Her criminal career goes all the way back to the 90s and was charged for the first time as early as in 2001. She is simply a corrupt politician, she embezzled hundreds of millions of dollars.
- it is a perfectly understandable and expected thing for the authorities to disperse an illegal gathering which is disrupting the lives of ordinary citizens. Or maybe you think the police didn’t have the right to disperse the OWS commies as well?
- the harsher penalties instituted in January are in my mind absolutely justified considering the violence the protesters have been generating
Concurring bump and thank you for making those corrections.
Your post was interesting and well reasoned. Thanks
And yet Schengen visas are available to Ukrainians though generally limited to 90 days. One has to prove financial capacity
Nice snark but you are uninformed. The largest steel mill in terms of finished steel in the Soviet Union is located in Ukraine it is now owned by Arcelor Mittal. The largest open pit iron mine in Europe is there too. Ukrainian agriculture feeds a large segment of Europe and a very big part of North Africa. Absent their corruption issues and they are doing better they would be an economic power house
-Facts are Tymoshenko’s conviction was not for the “criminal career from the 90s and embezzlement of millions”. It was for the financial losses the state incurred when Ukraine started buying Russian gas at $400. There was no personal wealth for her to be gained there, unless you claim that Putin paid her a fraction of that amount in a secret arrangement. But then we’re in the Loch Ness Area 51 secret conspiracy territory and no argument is good enough
-Ya. re-wrote the already re-written constitution when it suited him, what is not true here? In 2004 when his opponent won the presidency, he’s for the stronger parliament; in 2010 when he won the office, he’s for the stronger presidency. If this is not hypocrisy on his part, don’t know what is
-the usage of force on that Nov 30 gathering was completely unjustified. You obviously didn’t watch the video I referenced. But yeah, to disperse people in such a way is perfectly understandable - in a African 3rd world country. You see this in the States, there are criminal investigations the next day. The way the Occupy was handled was picture perfect - you put the handcuffs on, take him and keep him overnight. What you see on the video is nothing close to that - it can’t be right
-let’s agree to disagree. You like the police state where one does hard time for questioning the government, I like my free speach
It is almost impossible to do business there. The corruption is sickening. The following story is not uncommon:
You decide to invest some money in a new business, hire some workers, buy new computer and machinery, stock up on the inventory, pay off some fat bureaucrat (hey, it’s part of the overhead)
Year passes, you come to work one day, you see 5 big, tough, but not too bright looking individuals standing at the entrance. You ask them what they’re doing here, they say the owner asked them to stand there. Funny, you say to yourself, I don’t remember anything about this. You ask to see who’s in charge there and some guy comes in with a piece of paper. The paper is a document from a court 500 miles away, stating that Mr. X, a minor partner in your business, is involved in an ownership dispute with you. Funny, I don’t know Mr X, I thought this was my property. Meanwhile, Mr X is in control of the facility until the settlement, thus the 5 guys upfront. You go to police, they say they’re not getting involved in any disputes, that’s why there are courts, dumbass. I’ll clear it up at the court, you say to yourself. Six months pass, you go to the court, but Mr X doesn’t show up. The judge says, I guess there is no dispute, the company’s all yours. You go with your little paper that the business is indeed yours, but the 5 guys are no longer there to greet you. The offices and the warehouse are empty. Lastly, you begin to think that gun ownership isn’t that bad of an idea
>>>And yet Schengen visas are available to Ukrainians though generally limited to 90 days. One has to prove financial capacity<<<
These are available for Afghani and Somalians too. The entire idea of being a part of Schengen agreement is that your nationals (and foreigners who are happened to be on your territory) aren’t about to get national visas to travel around EU. A Greek doesn’t need Schengen visa to travel into France, national passport is enough. So doesn’t an African immigrant who are given asylum in Italy, or Chinese businessmen, who has opened Polish visa. All said individuals are free to go anywhere in EU.
Yeah I know... and unless this mess is sorted out, no deals with either EU or Russia will help significantly and once it’s all fixed up to the standard of let’s say average in EU post commie countries (which is still far from perfect), 2 digit GDP growth must come.
Face it Ivan, your precious ‘gas-princess’ Yuli Tymoshenko spent her entire career embezzling money either from private companies or the the state (proven) and the phony ‘pro-democracy’ movement in Ukraine is now simply a front for a national separatist movement intent on tearing the country in half. The 2004 Orange revolution was a complete failure and the losers from the west who don’t want to face the consequences of their own actions are now turning their back on the democratic process.
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