Russia and the INF {Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces} Treaty

The American Conservative ^ | February 12, 2014, 12:48 PM | Daniel Larison

[cunning_fish]

Nikolai Sokov and Miles Pomper recently reviewed allegations that Russia is violating the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. They are not persuaded that there is much substance to the charges:

Thus, the case that there are significant Russian violations of the INF Treaty appears weak. As noted above, the RS-26 tests do not represent a violation—at most the use of a legal loophole for reasons of convenience. The story about cruise missile tests is still vague, but the fact that US government was reluctant to classify it as a violation suggests plenty of uncertainty. In the history of US-Soviet and US-Russian arms control there have been dozens of similar cases—both parties have raised concern about the actions of the other. The majority of these concerns remained unresolved for years until they lost relevance. As a rule, these are technical issues that are discussed by technical experts outside public eye. Why, then have allegations about possible violation of the INF Treaty surfaced? The reasons for that are likely to be found in alliance and domestic politics rather than in substance of the arms control process.

As the authors observe, if the Russians no longer wished to be bound by the treaty they could easily withdraw from it, and the purported violations are so minor that they wouldn’t constitute a serious problem even

[Navy Patriot]

Overall in Middle Eastern, Eastern European, and Western European affairs, the US, under Obama, seeks crisis (by fraud, usually) and destabilization, while the Russian Federation seeks stability.

Incredible role reversal since 1994.