POLL: CORNYN WON’T WIN MARCH 4 TEXAS GOP PRIMARY

Stockman for Senate ^ | 2/17/14 | Stockman for Senate

[jimbo123]

Just 22 months after Ted Cruz’s upset victory over Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, Texas Republicans want to toss another high-profile establishment Republican into a runoff for a U.S. Senate seat against his conservative challenger.

A new Gravis/Human Events poll shows incumbent U.S. Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) with only 43 percent support in the March 4 Texas Republican primary, forcing him into a May 27 runoff against U.S. Rep Steve Stockman (R-TX 36.)

Stockman is in second place, grabbing 28 percent and quickly closing in on Cornyn. The remaining 29 percent were undecided.

The poll was conducted before voters knew Cornyn voted the evening of Feb. 12 to kill a Ted Cruz filibuster and advance a total suspension of Obama’s debt limit until March 2015. Cornyn’s vote to raise the debt limit set off a firestorm of opposition to him among Texas Republican voters.

Gravis Marketing conducted the poll Feb. 10-12 for “Human Events,” a prominent national conservative newspaper. It was published Monday in “Human Events” and was not commissioned by any campaign or conducted with any campaign’s knowledge.

This is the fifth poll published in Cornyn’s race. All five show Cornyn forced into a runoff. Research by polling experts shows undecided voters usually do not break for the incumbents and incumbents usually lose runoff elections.

“The buzzards are circling over John Cornyn. A runoff is an incumbent’s death sentence,” said Stockman spokesman Donny Ferguson. “This is why Cornyn refuses to release his internal poll numbers.”

[Mr. K]

you are correct if you think ‘leading’ with 45% is actual leading.

What it means to me is that 55% are AGAINST him (so far)

Your type of statement/logic is how they foisted “frontrunner” Mitt Romney on us because he was ‘leading’ with 30% of the vote. So we ended up with a candidate that 70% didn’t want.

In this race all that matters RIGHT NOW is that he does not reach 50% (plus 1)

This will force a runoff, which incumbants tend to lose (55% are against him already)

[ZULU]

Texans, don’t take this for granted. Fight harder than ever before. This is the Alamo and San Jacinto all over again except the enemy is Carl Rove, the RINOs and Cornyn.

[JRandomFreeper]

One Tea Party group has endorsed Stovall. I'll be voting for Stovall, because he's been a businessman. Either one will be better than Cornyn, though. I'd be proud to have either as my Senator.

/johnny

[JRandomFreeper]

Yep. Cornyn isn't running against just Stockman. He's running against 7 other candidates. If they each average a little over 7% of the vote, Cornyn goes to a run-off.

/johnny

[Din Maker]

To: Stockman Spokesman Donny Ferguson: Where are the Stockman radio and TV ads? Please don’t say there is no money for them. Stockman is supposed to be the one with the best chance of raising money and defeating Cornyn in a run-off election. Well, why isn’t he raising money now? Where are the ads? All Stockman has is Twitter, a blog and e-mail addresses.

Stockman has been my Congressman the last two times he served in Congress, but, I’m voting for Dwayne Stovall or Linda Vega. Probably Vega.

[VRWC For Truth]

Yes Tejas, dump Cornrow.

[jimbo123]

Linda Vega

http://www.lindavegafortexas.net/
https://www.facebook.com/lindavegafortexas.net
https://twitter.com/LindaVega4Texas

[Din Maker]

Well, RIghtwardHo.... been wondering when you were gonna show up. Your RINO-troll buddy Theodore has already been here this morning. Guess you’ve been busy over at the DU.

Cornhole will be in a run-off and he will get his butt handed to him. In the 2012 Texas Republican primary for U.S. Senate, the heavily-favored Dewhurst finished ahead of Cruz by a wide 45 percent to 34 percent margin. Dewhurst lost the runoff to Cruz by 8 percentage points.

[rwoodward]

Runoffs are bad news for incumbents becuase they force the public’s attention on only one issue. Most incumbents win because voters go into a voting booth with too many choices to be informed on. They just click the R or the D at the top of the ticket.

[thackney]

Traditionally, primary run-offs for an incumbent are difficult for the incumbent to win. If the incumbent could not win a majority in initial election, the turnout for the runoff tends to be more focused in getting the incumbent out of office.

[thackney]

This poll was only a comparison of Cornyn versus Stockman. There are 8 people running in the race. Cornyn is going to get a far lower percentage in the initial primary.

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/texas-telephone-poll-stockman-gaining-against-cornyn-in-primary-battle/

[Din Maker]

I honestly don’t know much about Stockman, can someone enlighten me.
_______________________________________________________________________________
Be glad to do so. He has been my Congressman both times he served in Congress, and I’m NOT voting for him. He has a lot of baggage. The Beaumont (TX) Enterprise did a front page story on him two Sundays in a row questioning his character, his ethics and his missed votes. He filed for bankruptcy some years ago. He says he had to in order to care for his invalid father. His FEC Records are being investigated. I heard him on a Radio interview on radio station KLVI in Beaumont during his first term. I, and many others, would have sworn the dude was drunk. Also, everyone says he will be able to raise the most money in a run-off with Cornyn. Well, where is the money now? Where are the TV and Radio ads? Is someone in his camp pocketing the money? All he has is Twitter, e-mail addresses and a blog. How in hell do you win a state-wide election like that? In conclusion, let me say..............

Trust me. Cornyn and his people are keeping their powder dry right now, but, if Stockman is Cornyn’s run-off opponent..... Katie bar the door. It will be ugly and Cornyn will likely win.

[Din Maker]

Your Post #50 is spot on.

[LS]

I understand the math. I don't think that all of those who aren't for Cornyn now are for Stockman. And don't kid yourself. Romney won fair and square because every one of the challengers had big problems and never came close to a majority. Cruz showed that a Tea Party challenger can win. But they aren't guaranteed a win.

Do you have a source for 55% of incumbents lose in a runoff?

[LS]

Hope so. But I’m done confusing hope with reality. Bevin is absolutely collapsing in KY.

[Din Maker]

I put this on a couple of other threads, but, I’ll say it one more time. If you know anyone who is voting for Cornyn please remind them that the TX GOP Primary is March 5th.

(I know it’s March 4th but hopefully the uninformed lemmings don’t know that.)

[Din Maker]

Bevin is absolutely collapsing in KY.
_____________________________________________________________How is that?

[deport]

Cornyn is going to get a far lower percentage in the initial primary.

***********

Agreed this is a misleading poll in it is only asking about two canidates. But it also
has some high undecided/don’t know numbers for the others to get the votes. I would
think it is representatived to a large degree of Stockman/Cornyn support.

Have you seen any or heard of any campaign numbers?

[LS]

Down by over 15 in latest poll. Not making much of a dent.

[TexasFreeper2009]

Thanks for the information, I am not happy with Cornyn, but don’t really know ANYTHING about the others, who, for all I know, could be 100 times worse.

Who is the most conservative candidate running against Cornyn? Is it Stoval?

If we do push Cornyn into a runoff with Stockman... is Stockman a more conservative choice?