“My prediction is Russia will control and invest in Crimea while using the carrot and stick of cutting off energy/natural gas with the rest of the Ukraine. Which it will not invade. Instead it will subvert,”
You are probably correct.
With the Ukraine, Putin will allow it to go to the EU, where the Euro Thugs and George $oreA$$ will rape and pillage the Ukraine’s resources. After about 5 years of that, there will another revolt in the Ukraine, with the Ukrainians begging Putin/Russia to take them back.
time will tell. Ukraine has an army and it will be messy for Putin to simply invade and take over via brute force. Far better to subvert and build up new Putin stooges. Kleptomaniac Yanukovych is damaged goods and will not be back after everyone saw his palace and palace grounds with a zoo