The Invasion So Far: Visual Summary Of Russian Forces And Movements

Zero Hedge ^ | 1 March 2014 | Tyler Durden

[Errant]

Moments ago Interfax reported that two Russian anti-submarine warships have appeared off the coast of Ukraine's Crimea region, violating an agreement on Moscow's lease of a naval base, according to a Ukrainian military source as saying. Then again what else would a Ukrainian military source say. The source added that the two vessels, part of Russia's Baltic Fleet, had been sighted in a bay at Sevastopol, where Moscow's Black Sea Fleet has a base.

So imagine two extra anti-sub ships off Sevastopol in the map below which until this latest update from Contemporary Issues and Geography, was keeping an accurate running update of all the most recent developments in the staggered Russian invasion of the Ukraine.

[Errant]

It's too bad that Tom Clancy is no longer with us to witness this...

[Errant]

Link to larger map.

[Errant]

In a stunning 24 hours, it now appears that Russia and the Ukraine are one formal announcement away from a state of war. From moments ago, as reported by Bloomberg:

•UKRAINE ACTING PRESIDENT PUTS ALL FORCES ON FULL COMBAT ALERT

"And this, as reported by the NYT, virtually assures the escalation to a hot war, as some provocation, somewhere will certainly take place: "a Ukrainian military official in Crimea said Ukrainian soldiers had been told to “open fire” if they came under attack by Russia troops or others."

Ukraine's Acting President Puts All Armed Forces On Full Combat Alert

[Errant]

"All the dominoes are tumbling now. Moments after the Russian upper house of parliament approved the decision to use Russian troops in the Ukraine as expected, Ukraine's acting president called an emergency meeting of security chiefs according to his spokeswoman. Oleksander Turchinov summoned his Security Council after Russian President Vladimir Putin sought parliamentary approval to deploy Russian forces in the Ukrainian region of Crimea. At this point the biggest and perhaps final wildcard is whether NATO does or does not get involved. If it does, and if Russia does not back off - which it has clearly telegraphed it won't - futures may be looking at a limit down open on Sunday."

Ukraine Acting President Calls Emergncy Meeting Of Security Chiefs; Russia Threatens To Cut Off The Gas

[Berlin_Freeper]

The scene of the Crime(a).

[Errant]

"Even as Russia has officially deployed its military to the Ukraine, its unofficial involvement in The Crimean was well known for days. A much more notable development would be if protesters in the pro-Russian eastern part of the country were to seize control of the second largest city in the Ukraine, Kharkiv, located just miles from the Russian border as this would quickly give Russia a foothold into the east of the nation with the tactical escalation abilities such a takeover would entail. Which is why the following clip of pro-Russian protesters storming the city administration in Kharkiv is of importance: should Ukraine lose control of the city, or is forced to use troops against the people, it would be just the pretext Russia needs to "defend" citizens in this part of the country, the same argument it used for military intervention in the Crimean."

Pro-Russian Protesters Storm Kharkiv City Administration Building; Russian Flags Hoisted Across East Ukraine [Video at Link]

[Errant]

"Curious how Ukraine, which with its population of 44 million and size of 603,628 square km makes it the largest single country entirely in Europe, stacks up against Russia? The following infographic should answer some questions regarding the (im)balance of power."

Russia vs Ukraine: The Infographic

[dfwgator]

I think I saw this show once....

What Fits Into Russia

[Errant]

"While various organizations are scrambling to meet on short notice, or not so short if one is a European finance minister, the diplomatic fallout has begun with the summoning of the Russian Ambassador in Great Britain to the foreign office."

Britain Summons Russian Ambassador; Russian Ambassador To US May Be Recalled

[goldstategop]

It all depends on whether the new regime in Kiev decides to open fire on anti-regime protesters in Ukraine’s Russian-speaking east and south - which would give Moscow its long sought after pretext to intervene.

This is like 1914, it can take the smallest spark to set off a war no one wants.

[LowTaxesEqualsProsperity]

Seeing reports that Ukrainian armed forces are not following orders from Kiev regime. Not yet confirmed.

[Errant]

"Current US foreign policy in a nutshell: Barack Obama tells Vladimir Putin "there will be costs" if Russia invades Ukraine. What does Putin do? He invades Ukraine. Only this time it's official: AP reports that the Kremlin says Russian President Vladimir Putin has asked parliament for permission to use the country's military in Ukraine. Putin says the move is needed to protect ethnic Russians and the personnel of a Russian military base in Ukraine's strategic region of Crimea. RIA further adds, the military use is virtually assured as it was leaders of Russia’s upper and lower houses of parliament who first called Saturday on President Vladimir Putin to stabilize the situation in Crimea and protect Russian citizens. The leader of Federation Council, Russia’s upper house, said the use of military force in the former Soviet nation could be justified after the opposition swept into power in Kiev last weekend."

Putin To Use Military In Ukraine

[wideawake]

How about a comparative map of the Soviet Union and Afghanistan?

That was 300mm vs. 20mm.

But Russia is much weaker now than then, and the Ukraine has much better equipment now than Afghanistan had then.

[Errant]

This is like 1914, it can take the smallest spark to set off a war no one wants.

Yep, and I agree the ball is now in the court of the new regime in Kiev. No doubt their action will depend upon backroom talks with the West.

[wideawake]

Spasibo, tovarisch.

[goldstategop]

Exactly. But one cannot exclude the possibility some of the protestors in Kharkov and other cities are in fact Russian agents provocateurs sent in to destabilize the situation.

Kiev cannot afford a bloodbath which would discredit the new regime. It needs to rollback anti-Russian measures and initiate a national dialogue - or risk losing the country. Much is at stake in how this is handled.

Russia can be rebuffed by NOT making it easy for Putin to go to war.

[Cementjungle]

I think they pretty much have the Crimean peninsula wrapped up. Perhaps they’ll settle for that for now.

[VerySadAmerican]

Putin goes to his legislative branch to get permission to use force. That’s more than I can say for obama.

[dfwgator]

Like I’ve said, these are discussions that should have taken place back in 92-93....all they did was “kick the can” and leave a mess to be cleaned up later...well, “later” is Now.