Posted on 03/02/2014 3:52:03 PM PST by MeneMeneTekelUpharsin
Dow futures down -127 at this time.
(Excerpt) Read more at money.cnn.com ...
Wait a minute. She tripped last year and the market was up 30%! Time to buy on the Lawrence indicator!
Maybe Putin shut down that gas pipeline to Eastern Europe. John Kerry isn’t going to be happy about that.
yeah, holding steady for an hour or so.
On the one hand this morning is the worst it’s been in years, and on the other hand the past few years have been extraordinarily kind. Remembering ‘09 this is nottin’.
--and if he gets really ticked off he may threaten to agree to disagree...
Exactly. It’s been an incredible ride since March 2009. I was at a presentation two weeks ago with the chief economist for NASDAQ and the lead floor governor for NYSE. The economist was, naturally, pessimistic and the trader was, naturally, optimistic. The best thing from the presentation was the technical chart for S&P showing that we might be having a technical breakout after a double top peak (1999 and 2007). He said that the markets had gone up by 30% in a year four times since the 70’s. In the following year the average increase is 22%.
The other interesting thing was a presentation by Richard Fisher on monetary and fiscal policy. Harsh words about the fiscal side of the house.
Dave Lutz of Stifel Nicolaus has a round-up of what traders are chatting about before the opening bell:
Good Morning! All about the Ukraine this AM, as Russia’s latest moves spark angst and a flight to safety. Futures in the USA are marked off 1%, and just off the lows of the overnight. As VIX futures are marked up 10% This mirrors weakness overseas, with the DAX off almost 3%, and the FTSE 2%, as banks have been hit by concerns over exposure to Russian and Ukrainian banks. Volume is quite heavy in Europe, with most markets trading 50% above their recent 20day averages. Russia off over 10% as the Rouble collapses to record lows – Their Central Bank stepped in and raised 150bp, citing “risks to financial stability”. Poland’s market was initially hit for almost 4%. Ukraine itself not off all the bad, as their FX is higher as they await bailout teams, and their CDS is only up 1% overnight. In Asia, China bounced almost 1% despite their PMI hitting 7M lows, as one of the “unintended consequences” of the Yuan weakening is liquidity is spiking in their money markets. The Nikkei was hit for 1.2%, and futures are marked about 80bp lower – as the Yen is spiking on haven flows. Sectors to focus on will be the weaker banks (Ukraine/Russia exposure) – Gold Miners (up 4% as Gold is spiking) – Casinos (Macau Numbers blowing out) – and the Divvy Sectors like REITS with 10YY dropping hard.
10YY crashes under the 200dma – Now yielding 2.6%, gearing up to test October Lows near 2.47%. We have Safe haven FX jumping – including the Yen and Swiss Franc. The Euro is getting hit sharply, helping the DXY bounce despite the jumping Yen – a headwind for commodities. That said, Russia is the world’s largest energy exporter, including both oil and gas – so combined with the cold Northeast, we have both Brent and Natty up 2.5%. Gold is adding 2% on haven flows, now the highest since October. Wheat climbed the most in 17 months and corn rose to the highest since September as tensions escalated in Ukraine, a leading exporter of both grains.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/trader-chatter-mar-3-2014-2014-3#ixzz2uuBZcSMP
Personal spending up +0.4% (exp +0.1%)
Perosnal income +0.3% (exp +0.2%)
PCE +1.1% (exp +1.1%)
DJIA down about 130 ten minutes in.
Down 169.76(1.04%) 10:18AM EST
If he kept it to just 'harsh words' then he was a man of remarkable restraint. I don't think I'd have been able to avoid frothing at the mouth.
Just btw, no pro I know watches DJIA; rather, they watch SP500. A bigger selection sample is almost always better to use for analysis. In any case, there are far, far better and easier mkts to trade at this time, e.g. coffee, sugar, crude and products (short term only).
A short wheat position rates to profit handsomely once the Ukraina situation sorts itself out, say over 2-3 weeks' time. Too early to enter now; perhaps by the end of this week. If short wheat is too risky for your tastes, use the bear spreads instead, maybe long N, short K or long Z short U.
Also, the instability created by the Fed and declining real earnings have set up and are still setting up excellent double vertical spread opportunities in natively volatile stocks on the day before they report earnings.
Good trading to you!
Perhaps because Obama is about to start WWIII over something that doesn’t even concern him.
that would certainly lead to a circumstance whereby he could declare that National Emergency he’s been pining for....
“Over the past six years, the monetary base has increased 340 percent, 10 times the rate at which the economy would have expanded in nominal terms had we not suffered the recent recession. One is hard pressed to argue that there is much efficacy derived from additional expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet. This is why I’ve been such a strong proponent of dialing back our large-scale asset purchases.
It is my firm belief that the fault in our economy lies not in monetary policy but in a feckless federal government that simply cannot get its fiscal and regulatory policy geared so as to encourage business to take the copious amount of money we at the Fed have created and put it to work creating jobs and growing our economy. Fiscal policy is not only “not an ally of U.S. growth,” it is its enemy. If the fiscal and regulatory authorities that you elect and put into office to craft taxes, spending and regulations do not focus their efforts on providing incentives for businesses to expand job-creating capital investment rather than bicker with each other for partisan purposes, our economy will continue to fall short and the middle-income worker will continue being victimized, no matter how much money the Fed prints.
I don’t want to ruin your evening after such a pleasant dinner. But if you wish to know who is at fault for hollowing out the welfare of middle-income workers and the American economy, kindly do not look at me or my colleagues at the Fed. When you go home tonight look at yourself in the mirror. We at the Fed are providing more than enough
monetary accommodation. You elect our fiscal and regulatory policymakers. It is time for them to do their job, to ally themselves with us to achieve a fully employed, prosperous
America. Only you, as voters, have the power to insist that they craft policies that are needed to restore American prosperity. Please do so.”
He can draft all the millennials to go fight the Ruskies... that would take care of the unemployment numbers.
considering the millenials propensity for marijuana ...they might not be capable of putting up a good fight....which would assure that Bill Ayers wish to cull a huge number of Americans finally comes true.
Right now, opportunity isn't knocking; it's beating in the door with a fire axe.
Try this one: buy a 240 strike July coffee call and sell 3 July 290 or July 300 coffee calls against it. Plan on buying 1 more July call, 240 to 270 strike, if July KC hits 220. Otherwise, plan on exiting the trade in late May. Note that, even if July coffee absolutely tanks out, you can (and very likely will) make a profit regardless once the bull's back is broken -- just sell back your long call(s) and sit with the shorts until, again, late May. Holding shorts into June is problematic for weather reasons.
Let this Ukraina flap blow over, then either buy Chicago wheat July puts, sell the July future outright, or put on bear spreads in either N/K or Z/U. The planting is complete in Ukraina, and, absent a "war" tearing up the fields (which neither Putin nor Ukraina want at all), this trade has profit written all over it.
Best, as ever, ...
Down 226.05(1.38%) 12:08PM EST
You’re absolutely right, these down ticks for doom’n’gloom headlines end up being low volume buying opportunities. Today looks like it’s going to be a lot of fun.
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