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High tech isnít driving the economy any more
Market Watch ^ | March 7, 2014 | Rex Nutting

Posted on 03/07/2014 11:50:20 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet

The growth rate of high-tech investments has slowed dramatically over the past 10 years, especially since the Great Recession.

Everyone has a pet theory explaining why the economic recovery has been so weak, but here’s one overlooked factor: The productivity revolution driven by computers, software and the Internet is fading, and nothing has yet emerged to take its place as an engine of growth.

For all of the incessant buzz in the markets about the latest tech start-up, few businesses are investing much in high-tech equipment or software. Investments in information processing equipment and software are growing at the slowest pace in decades, just a fraction of the booming growth rates of the late 1990s. See the Bureau of Economc Analysis data.

High-tech investments were a major driver of the economy in the 1980s and 1990s. Businesses were spending a lot on new equipment, software and research, and those investments were paying off by boosting output.

(VIDEO-AT-LINK)

But now 60 years of electronics-led productivity could be grinding to a halt. The slowdown in high-tech investment today means a slower growing economy tomorrow.....

(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Government
KEYWORDS: computers; economy; electronics; internet

1 posted on 03/07/2014 11:50:21 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

It’s not that technology still isn’t a driver, but the size of the government is eating up all the gains.


2 posted on 03/07/2014 11:52:00 PM PST by Jonty30 (What Islam and secularism have in common is that they are both death cults)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Facebook and Twitter aren’t exactly business productivity applications. They’re just time wasters, the same time we would spend in front of the tv if we didn’t have them.


3 posted on 03/07/2014 11:59:52 PM PST by Vince Ferrer
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
The link doesn't redirect to the proper article, but I'll vouch for the gist of this. I've been laid off three times in the last two years, and after beating the bushes quite a bit, I'm about to start my fourth IT job since 2012 for wages that I'd normally not even pull out of my driveway for. Our Halfrican-American-In-Chief and his minions fiddle while Western civilization burns........


4 posted on 03/08/2014 12:01:36 AM PST by Viking2002
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To: Viking2002

Here it is:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-collapse-of-high-tech-is-killing-the-economy-2014-03-07?link=sfmw

It’s that dang “fill-in-the-blank” feature on my PC that does that to me every now and then. Frustrating.


5 posted on 03/08/2014 12:05:04 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (I will raise $2M for Sarah Palin's next run, what will you do?)
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To: Jonty30

No, I think it’s real. H.G. Wells saw this in his novel, THINGS TO COME, but he mistakenly identified energy as the devalued commodity. His idea was actually based on the discovery of radioactivity, and he imagined small, cheap, durable energy sources driving trains, automobiles, and factories, and putting 80% of the economy out of business.

In electronic information technology, this has been a cyclic phenomenon, with the boom in the new level, PCs or whatever, taking over where the old level faded and died. But this has to end somewhere doesn’t it? We’re not going to have 10^100 megabytes at 10^100 Hertz on a pinhead. Are we?

So maybe this is it.


6 posted on 03/08/2014 12:09:58 AM PST by dr_lew
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Obamaland!


7 posted on 03/08/2014 12:11:06 AM PST by Gene Eric (Don't be a statist!)
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To: dr_lew

AI and robotics is still in its infancy. When that wave hits, it will change everything as we know it.


8 posted on 03/08/2014 12:16:27 AM PST by DB
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To: dr_lew
H.G. Wells saw this in his novel, THINGS TO COME ...

Sorry, that should be, THE WORLD SET FREE

9 posted on 03/08/2014 12:16:48 AM PST by dr_lew
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To: dr_lew; Jonty30

What the future holds: US futurist Peter Diamandis on the shape of things to come (”Abundance”)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3123840/posts

Crossbar’s RRAM to boast terabytes of storage, faster write speeds than NAND
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3052146/posts

Upstart’s ‘FLASH KILLER’ chips pack a terabyte per tiny layer
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3051777/posts


10 posted on 03/08/2014 12:24:00 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (I will raise $2M for Sarah Palin's next run, what will you do?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

tech investment isn’t in the US


11 posted on 03/08/2014 12:27:49 AM PST by sten (fighting tyranny never goes out of style)
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To: DB

Could be! Could be! It’s crazy to read and see the fifties and sixties books and TV shows based on AI. The superior machine intelligence has been a stock in trade since the 1940’s I think, and many depictions had them based on vacuum tube technology.

I guess it is starting to happen, but I remember the rhetorical challenge I heard in the 1960’s at Bell Labs, “Let’s see you build a gnat.” Well, how about it?

My own version of that challenge is to build a robot that can play basketball. Boy, that would be something! Can you even imagine it? I don’t think so!


12 posted on 03/08/2014 12:28:01 AM PST by dr_lew
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To: dr_lew

Not necessarily. While computing power will, at some point top out in all practical terms, the applications that can use that computing power is still theoretically unlimited. Until we get homes equipped with computers like the IBM Big Blue, we can’t even say that we’re even close to hitting the limit of computing power.
Much of the reason for the slow down in technological advancement can be chalked up to the simple fact that there are no applications that need much more computing power than what currently exists. However, that could rapidly change if high level artificial intelligence or a home holodeck system were to ever become a reality


13 posted on 03/08/2014 12:30:25 AM PST by Jonty30 (What Islam and secularism have in common is that they are both death cults)
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To: Jonty30
Much of the reason for the slow down in technological advancement can be chalked up to the simple fact that there are no applications that need much more computing power than what currently exists.

I think this is entirely wrong. The brute speed, if you will, of advancing computing technology has been the scythe which has mowed down all before it. Case in point, telephones! This was an old technology for establishing "talking paths" which benefited from advancing computing technology by being able to "switch" these talking paths more rapidly and efficiently. All of a sudden though, the computing technology got so fast that it absorbed the transmission technology itself, so that "switching" became obsolete and got pushed aside, even if I, for one, still have a "land line".

So, I assume that applications that "don't need more computing power" will simply be brushed aside by the new realities that this computing power creates.

14 posted on 03/08/2014 12:54:35 AM PST by dr_lew
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To: dr_lew; Jonty30; DB; 2ndDivisionVet

Here’s my take on all this:

I really don’t need all the electronic gadgets. Right now I’m on a large desktop computer and soon may no longer use it as I intend to go off grid.

For years I had no telephone, no television, no camera and had very low blood pressure. Sure enough, as soon as my boss insisted I get a telephone, my blood pressure went up. Dang!

I no longer bother with movies so a DVD player is moot.

Did it ever occur to any of you that there may be lots of people like me out there?


15 posted on 03/08/2014 1:16:51 AM PST by SatinDoll (A NATURAL BORN CITIZEN IS BORN IN THE USA OF USA CITIZEN PARENTS)
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To: SatinDoll

No.


16 posted on 03/08/2014 1:18:32 AM PST by Jonty30 (What Islam and secularism have in common is that they are both death cults)
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To: Jonty30

That’s a shame, because I meet them all the time.


17 posted on 03/08/2014 1:22:23 AM PST by SatinDoll (A NATURAL BORN CITIZEN IS BORN IN THE USA OF USA CITIZEN PARENTS)
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To: SatinDoll

I have two terabytes.


18 posted on 03/08/2014 1:26:59 AM PST by dr_lew
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To: SatinDoll

That’s because all the Amish never really go anywhere. :)


19 posted on 03/08/2014 1:28:12 AM PST by Jonty30 (What Islam and secularism have in common is that they are both death cults)
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To: SatinDoll

I think you’re pulling my leg...

You’ve been on FR for 14 years - no way are just going to walk away now...


20 posted on 03/08/2014 1:41:50 AM PST by DB
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

People don’t usually see the next tech revolution coming. Keep your eye on 3D printing. Why build giant factories to build stuff when in can be printed in a garage? Why have inventory and just in time delivery when stuff can be printed on the spot as needed? What does that do to retailers?


21 posted on 03/08/2014 1:48:21 AM PST by Hugin
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To: Hugin
People don’t usually see the next tech revolution coming. Keep your eye on 3D printing.

Everybody see's 3D printing coming. If it's the next tech revolution, it would be unusual in this respect.

22 posted on 03/08/2014 1:56:57 AM PST by dr_lew
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To: Hugin

Click on the keyword “3D Printing” here and you’ll see many threads.


23 posted on 03/08/2014 1:57:16 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (I will raise $2M for Sarah Palin's next run, what will you do?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
High tech products have saturated the market and so they are no longer a growth area.
24 posted on 03/08/2014 2:47:38 AM PST by reg45 (Barack 0bama: Implementing class warfare by having no class.)
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To: DB

Knowing obama, he will have us working for the robots.


25 posted on 03/08/2014 3:15:59 AM PST by Red in Blue PA (When Injustice becomes Law, Resistance Becomes Duty.-Thomas Jefferson)
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To: SatinDoll

A point to note.

The graph shows the RATE OF GROWTH. Absolute numbers are at records; it is just that the rate of growth is slowing. But this is inevitable with the LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS,

IOW, nothing really shocking here.


26 posted on 03/08/2014 3:18:56 AM PST by Red in Blue PA (When Injustice becomes Law, Resistance Becomes Duty.-Thomas Jefferson)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The government, which is now 80% liberal, is trying to drive us to a feudal economy and lifestyle where the average citizen walks to his subsistence job and steps off the path to tug his forelock as our masters motor by in air-conditioned comfort. They want us in “sustainable” slums with everything in walking distance. I own a car that gets 40 mpg and it cost $5 just to go into town and back. Insurance and taxes are killing any tech market we might have, as they have killed housing and good jobs. Obama tripled the money supply and the economy didn’t budge. That was by design. He essentially robbed us of our wealth.

If you want a vibrant screaming economy, good defenses and a safe place to live, get rid of liberal nanny-state government.


27 posted on 03/08/2014 4:06:46 AM PST by Gen.Blather
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To: SatinDoll

I’m one, too. The technology trap is waiting to be sprung. Already, some sense to tension in the springs and jaws. We are not alone.


28 posted on 03/08/2014 4:18:04 AM PST by WorkingClassFilth
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To: dr_lew
I think, and many depictions had them based on vacuum tube technology.

Asimov coined the term 'positronic brain'. He said it sounded complex enough to defy immediate description and thus made it easier to believe....

29 posted on 03/08/2014 4:33:58 AM PST by x_plus_one (The harvest is great but the workers are few. Salman Rushdie is still in hiding.)
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To: Sir Napsalot

bkmk for later


30 posted on 03/08/2014 5:11:53 AM PST by Sir Napsalot (Pravda + Useful Idiots = CCCP; JournOList + Useful Idiots = DopeyChangey!)
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To: SatinDoll

I am going to reduce down to 1 PC and one Cell phone. No intelligent i-phone whatever you call it. I have always gone against the grain, never follow the crowd, and I don’t want to be one of those fools with my face in a tiny 4x3 inch screen all the time. Life is to precious to me to waste staring at a screen outside the home unless I am being paid. I like to have a real life, not a virtual one.


31 posted on 03/08/2014 5:30:31 AM PST by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Did it ever occur to people the slowdown is caused by people without jobs. We have been dumping american jobs in both high tech and manufacturing for years now. Now they are all scratching their damn heads trying to figure out why americans are not buying anything. They are not working or they are working for so much less that all they can afford are the basics.


32 posted on 03/08/2014 5:53:35 AM PST by pas
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

All that capital sitting on the sidelines waiting to be plowed into healthcare.


33 posted on 03/08/2014 6:35:22 AM PST by Tallguy
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Nothing sends businesses off shore faster than taxes about the only work left in the states are service jobs.


34 posted on 03/08/2014 9:07:41 AM PST by Vaduz
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The reality is that the productivity gains brought about by the last 50+ years of computing adoption have reached a point of saturation. Computing power is now so cheap, applications used by the business sector are so ubiquitous that there are few to no more businesses left without the benefits of basic technology.

There are no huge productivity gains on the horizon from technology, and there haven’t been any disruptive technologies developed since the roll-out of the internet 10 years ago. Now the ‘net has just penetrated even the most remote corners of industry in the US, to the point where the ‘net is now in most anyone’s pocket (in their smartphone) in huge swathes of the CONUS area.

Even as recently as 15 years ago, running a small business’ books on computers was a significant investment of thousands of dollars. Today, you can buy a PC for a couple hundred bucks, Quickbooks for a little bit more, and wha-la, you’ve lept forward of paper accounting. There’s “website in a can” sites and tools out there to allow small businesses to set up e-commerce sites in a half day. What more is there that will provide a big leap forward in productivity? Not much. Facebook, Twitter, etc aren’t productivity boosting technologies. In fact, for most businesses, these social networking sites are huge time sinks.


35 posted on 03/08/2014 4:42:32 PM PST by NVDave
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