Why Europe can't hit Russia with its biggest club: energy sanctions

csmonitor.com ^ | March 18, 2014 | By David J. Unger

[Calvin Locke]

One of the rare clashes between Reagan and Thatcher was over the then Soviet gas pipeline to Western Europe.

IIRC, UK-based GEC licensed the gas compressor technology from a US company, and was going to make out on the pipeline's construction.

[tcrlaf]

“Me thinks there is a possibility that the protests in the Ukraine that precipitated this situation were filled with Russian supporters. Did Putin orchestrate the whole thing”

Highly unlikely...
These protests just didn’t “pop up” when the US Media decided to cover them.
Ukraine’s economy has been in shambles for a long time. The injection of the Open Society Orgs to create chaos, and the US State department picking sides, brought it to a head, just like has been done in Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt.

Only this time, someone has been watching it all unfold, and probably made preparations some time ago for seizing back control of Crimea, should the Ukraine fall in to chaos. It is just too important to Russia, historically and economically, to be allowed to fall into the hands of those that could be hostile to Russia.

[Psalm 144]

I have this sneaking hunch that our oil is hocked for foreign loans.

[sergeantdave]

The fact is that the UK is sitting on 100 years -minimum - of natural gas supplies. However, Brits have been brainwashed by the eco-fascists that fraking causes earthquakes, water pollution and probably hemorrhoids.

Europe itself has at least 150 years of coal.

Europeans, at times, can be stone-cold stupid 50 IQ apes.

[spetznaz]

Russia can crush the military of the Ukraine. Russia could not crush the Muhadadin in Afghanistan whom had little classic military training but were guerrilas of extraordianry skill and ferocity. However, even the Muhadadin could not have done it with out stinger missiles. The answer to the Ukraine is to flood it with shoulder held anti aircraft missiles and tow missiles that will take out tanks.

I think this is an issue that requires some thought and logic. The reason the Soviets had problems in Afghanistan was a mix of (i) the Soviet 40th Army, or OKSVA, that was comprised of ill-trained/equipped conscripts, (ii) longer supply chains than prudent, and (iii) billions of Dollars worth of money and equipment from the US (and allies) to the Peshawar Seven Mujahadeen. The first two were bad enough, and adding the assistance to the Mujahadeen simply made the whole thing a nightmare ...not to mention that even though there were far more Afghans killed by the Soviets than the inverse, the Afghans believed they were Shaheed and would go to heaven anyways, thus the massive shock tactics did not work.

That conflict started over three decades ago, and a lot has gone under 'lessons learned.' Ukraine would be different

- far shorter supply chains, with strong local support along the eastern part of the country.

- an army that is professional. Many people still bring up Russian use of conscripts, when in 2006 the Russians reduced the number of years for conscription from 24 months to 12 months, and more importantly in 2012, had almost 200,000 professional soldiers, with a plan to increase that to 500,000. Finally, conscripts are not to be used in war. Anyways, the troops that would go to the Ukraine, if a conflagration were to break out, would be the very best Russia has ...both in terms of training and equipment.

- going back to Afghanistan, before the 40th OKSVA came in, all action in Afghanistan was by the Soviet special forces, specifically the Alfa, Zenith and GRU groups. They are the folk who killed the Afghan guards protecting the presidential palace, murdered president Amin and rolled him up in a carpet for transport.

- Flooding Ukraine with ATGMs and MANPAD SAMs would be a gift to Putin. Rather than settling for Crimea, and maybe Eastern Ukraine, that would be the perfect casus belli to go through the whole of the Ukraine.

- more recently, looking at the difference in the outcome of the First Chechen war versus the Second Chechen war shows that the Russians learned a lot.

Anyways, my thoughts on the best option would be for Europe to start exploring and exploiting its own energy supplies, to ensure that the energy weapon in Russia's hand cannot be used in the future. It remains to be seen whether the Europeans will do so. The US also needs to get a stronger president next time who is someone that Putin would take seriously, and also someone who adheres to the Constitution (for domestic issues) and proper procedure (for foreign policy decisions). It is difficult for Obama to be taken seriously after the Egypt, Libyan, and Syrian 'interventions.'

Disclaimer: Due to certain experiences on FR during the 2008 Georgia-Russia war, where some FReepers stupidly thought I was Russian (or supported Russia) due to my screen name, I am not Russian and do not support Russia in any land grabs. My last two posts (in my history) give more information of my thoughts on the issue, and also why I chose the moniker 'Spetznaz.' It is just that I do not believe in straight black-and-white thinking, where everything is that clear cut. There are many grays in most issues. Putin is a bully with power who believes he is right and is supported by most of his citizens. Obama is a coward with power who believes he is right and is supported by all he allows to be around him.

[meatloaf]

We don’t need to increase production. We sitting on an enormous surplus of natural gas right now. Those wells have already been drilled. The collection lines, compressor stations when necessary and pipelines have been under construction years before Putin threw his temper tantrum. The federales need to issue the permits to build the LNG export facilities for which they already ave the applications.

After that it’s all down hill for Russia. For g&g throw in the Keystone permit to go ahead and deliver the coup de grace to Venezeula who is a Russia client. We bled the Russians before. We can do it again. Obama just needs to get his happy ass out of the way.

[dfwgator]

Obama will never let it happen.

[meatloaf]

I know that. Take a look at my tagline. The election on November 4 should be called “A” Day. Remember “D” Day? “A” Day will be freedom for America day. If it goes the way it’s shaping up, it should be full speed ahead with Obama’s impeachment afterwards.

We don’t need to intimidate Putin. We need to intimidate Obama. Spread the word. November 4, 2014 is “A” Day.