Skip to comments.Ukraine fears Russia 'ready to attack'
Posted on 03/23/2014 9:33:11 AM PDT by Jim Robinson
Kiev (AFP) - Ukraine's Western-backed leaders voiced fears on Sunday of an imminent Russian invasion of the eastern industrial heartland following the fall of their last airbase in Crimea to defiant Kremlin troops.
Saturday's takeover involving armoured personnel carriers and stun grenades provided the most spectacular show of force since the Kremlin sent troops into the heavily Russified peninsula three weeks ago before sealing its annexation Friday.
Alarm about a push outside Crimea by Moscow's overwhelming forces -- now conducting drills at Ukraine's eastern gate -- were fanned further Sunday by a call by its self-declared premier for Russians across the ex-Soviet country to rise up against Kiev's rule.
The interim leaders in Kiev fear that Russian President Vladimir Putin -- flushed with expansionist fervour -- is developing a sense of impunity after being hit by only limited EU and US sanctions for taking the Black Sea cape.
"The aim of Putin is not Crimea but all of Ukraine... His troops massed at the border are ready to attack at any moment," Ukraine's National Security and Defence Council chief Andriy Parubiy told a mass unity rally in Kiev.
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No, I’m not trying to defend Putin. He is what he is: a KGB thug. I don’t dispute that in the slightest. I certainly don’t dispute Russia’s horrible abortion record. What I am saying, however, is that I don’t think the answer to our problems lies with those who advocate “the third way”. There is no third way anymore. The Founding Fathers had a choice to make: monarchy or direct democracy. These chose the middle path; a republic (the third way).
When a society becomes contemptuous of fundamental moral values it becomes a society that cannot endure through the use of such philosophical/political science nuance. I live in California, I ain’t appealing to the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals. The time is here for a street fight.
Rightly or wrongly, people see in Putin a champion for their ideals. Sure he’s a Russian nationalist, a wannabe Czar, a thug and a bully. He might not even believe what he says about the homosexual movement and the anecdotal evidence of his affinity for the Russian Orthodox Church. But so what?
Who else is telling the EU and the Obama administration with their assortment of evil policies to go to hell? We can’t even elect a representative who can represent our values without walking on eggshells around “those issues” for fear of being tarred and feathered in the MSM. We are already living in a tyranny of our own creation.
Rightly or wrongly Putin views the encroachment of the EU/NATO as a threat to Russian hegemony. I can understand that. I wouldn’t want those people in my backyard either.
The question that should be asked is why are people turning to a Russian strongman? What else can people put their faith in (I mean this in the secular sense; so don’t tell me Jesus, for He’s not pleased I’m sure)? A GOP that has abandoned them in an effort to play catch up with the Democrats for who can be the most socially liberal and accepted by the hipsters so they can avoid being on the, “wrong side of history?”
I think we should resign ourselves to the fact that the Constitution is not going to save us. It’s meaningless at this point. No election is going to save us. I think we should prepare for a wholly new form of government in the near future. And unless we want Mad Max/Thunder Dome (”Who runs bartertown?”)We had better get our orders in early. So we have choices to make:
1.) US/EU global socialism?
2.) Judeo-Christian strongman?
Like I said, I don’t believe there is a third way. Actually, maybe there is: burn it all to the ground and start over.
Ethnic Ukrainians are physically indistinguishable from ethnic Russians, and most are fluent in Russian. Just as Iraqi Sunni insurgents had no problem striking in Shiite areas, Ukrainians will have no problem attacking in majority ethnic Russian areas.
Would’ve surprise me if they did consider the breakaway portion of Moldova. In the process, it also would not surprise me if they decided to incorporate Itzak and Odessa, merging Crimea with that portion of Moldova; thereby securing the entire Black Sea coast of Ukraine.
1.) US/EU global socialism?
2.) Judeo-Christian strongman?
Like I said, I dont believe there is a third way. Actually, maybe there is: burn it all to the ground and start over
Neither of those two models are any better than what we have, in fact both are worse. Russians turn to a strongman because, first and foremost, it is all they've really ever known. Putin has wasted Russian resources, reduced individual freedom and otherwise done the Russian people no favors. He is no savior. He is playing with a weak hand, his adversaries at the moment (namely Obama) just happen to be buffoons. Putin wasn't even that popular and was dealing with internal dissent in what is a corrupt, decaying society. Putin is getting a bump in support the same way other shaky regimes do, but drumming up a conflict and stoking nationalist sentiment. No different than what the Argentine military tried, unsuccessfully over time, by invading the Falklands. The list is endless of corrupt dictatorships that have tried this.
There is a lot good about our constitution and system of governance, but what we have is still imperfect. I think you live and learn. You look at what worked, and when the time comes to create a new system you build on what was successful with the US constitution and make changes to avoid the pitfalls that showed themselves. As I pointed out, one of the first things I would do is specifically write out any role for the federal government in building a social welfare state. The flexibility would still be there for states to build safety nets and whatnot, but they'd have to do it on their own and remain competitive with the other states - this would make it much more difficult for us to arrive at the point we have. The idea that we have to choose between socialism and a Judeo-Christian strongman is way off base.
I am not optimistic in the short run, but nor I am ready to throw in the towel on the democratic republic concept. We may implode and have to start again, but the best idea is to learn from what went wrong and design a constitution that tries to prevent those things from happening again. And even at that, it may only be successful in delaying rot and decay for an additional 50 years or so. Instead of making it 250 years, perhaps next time we will make it 300. Nothing lasts forever, mankind is not perfectible (as so many socialists believe), and while our system has major flaws it still delivered great things to this country for a very long time. We'll just have to keep building on what works and curtailing those things that cause us problems.
Two big differences...
1. There's no "Thatcher" to oppose him.
2. The inhabitants of the Falklands were not Argies, and none of them welcomed them, as the Russian inhabitants in the Crimea welcomed the Russians.
Jim....the U.S. (regardless of what liberal lefties and isolationist Libertarians may say) needs to put a full brigade (IBCT) of the 82nd Airborne on the ground in Kiev immediately...followed in the next few weeks by a heavy brigade (HBCT) that has a reinforcing armor battalion. At the same time we need to flood the loyal Ukranian forces with arms and ammunition. Then we need to lobby our European allies to join us. Russia will then back down.
If we don’t - and we won’t under the current POTUS - the Ukraine is going to fall into Russian hands...at least the Eastern Ukraine. Then the country of Georgia will fully fall.
The Cold War NEVER ended. the USSR just changed names and waited until it could rebuild...which it has mostly done. Plus, Red China is an ongoing threat to Japan and Taiwan. Plus, they are enabling the nut case in North Korea to carry on.
This is NO time for the Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marines to be downsizing as they are....and certainly no time to withdraw them out of forward areas in Europe and Asia.
“Ukraine can hurt them badly enough to make Putin think twice.”
Sadly, not with the outdated equipment they possess. During the Gulf War, Iraq looked really good on paper, but the equipment they had was obsolete and we destroyed it like a hot knife through butter. The Russians will do the same to the Ukranians....it is their old stuff and they know how weak it is.
Also, I do not believe the training and morale of the Ukranians troops is good.
“A free people have the right to overthrow their government if it is tyrannically hurting the people. We need that here in America!”
Nonsense...we do not need an armed revolution here in America, and it is dangerous and scary to speak of one. All we need is to silence the Libertarian fools that have infiltrated the GOP (i.e. Rand Paul) and get rid of the GOP establishment fools that keep giving us useless candidates like Romney. Then we can field a REAL conservative (of the Reagan variety) that can win the election in 2016. In the meantime we need to make sure that REAL conservatives get elected to the House and Senate in 2014. That is how the Founders saw “Revolution” after the COTUS was initiated. Oh, and just because someone is “fiscally” conservative, doesn’t make them a REAL conservative of the Reagan variety.
“Putins tyrannical takeovers.” Ummm, the people of Crimea voted over 97% in favor of joining the Russian Federation. Putin asked for & got approval from Russian parliament before moving troops into Crimea, as requested by Russian citizens there. We should be so lucky to have our beloved zerO ask foir the approval of ANYTHING before he acts. You need to get your facts straight before opening your mouth.
Yours is an optimistic viewpoint. It’s reassuring in a sense. I hope you are right and it works out that way and we shake off what didn’t work and reinforce what has. I think both you and I realize that wholesale change is required to do that. What form that takes I don’t know.
One thing I do know is that until that time comes a lot of people, including folks on our side are going to be looking for solutions wherever they might present themselves and probably some very weird ideas and alliances will emerge. So I wouldn’t judge “putinista’s” too harshly. These are people who’ve been lied to and marginzalized for a while now: “Oh next election...etc” or whatever political dynamic you ascribe that puts them at the back of the bus.
When you couple that with the political rhetoric of today: “I won, you lost”, “law of the land” and other pronouncements made with finality aimed in one direction then its easy to understand a person’s predilection for courses of action that’ll trump such rhetoric. People want a leader and they don’t have it right now. Ted Cruz is the closest they’ve got but even he’s marginalized.
There is a tendency to equate “putinista’s” with the useful idiots employed by the Soviets in the Cold War era but its a different dynamic. In a very real sense the system they believed in has abandoned them. They win at the ballot box, and its overturned by an oligarchical judiciary. With such lawlessness and judicial activism is it any wonder that there are those who align themselves with someone who says screw all that and just punches people in the face?
The Marquess of Queensberry rules observed on the floor of the Congress and in the courthouses are used to advance one agenda and it’s not ours. The sooner we abandon them the better off we’ll be. 51 (R)’s in the Senate? Maybe we block a SC judicial nominee? Another piece of legislation? To what end? Tactical moves dressed up as strategic.
If we’re going to get to that place you’re talking about where we can effect the kind of change to extend the life of our Republic then we had better move off of the, “my talking head zinger was better than yours” mindset. There is nobody left to convince. We tell our story, they tell theirs. Everybody else in the middle is either stupid or a potential foe.
It is not nonsense...and don’t tell me that our founders did not see a need for revolution, violent if necessary! The communists have practically taken apart our nation and we are still hoping for a solution from our election. In the meantime, greater and greater portions of our wealth are being systematically stolen from us by the establishments strong arm, the irs, thousands of babies are being slaughtered in their mothers wombs, and the God given and beautiful union of men and women is turned upside down with men and women lusting and having sex with each other, claiming it is their American right. Not to mention the brainwashing of our most precious citizens in the socialist public school system, creating a doubt about our Father in heaven with the Marxists manufactured lie of macro-evolution.
I pray that another revolution is not needed too, but at the very least, I think this destruction of the heavenly order that once was free enterprise is going to break down into massive civil violence when the spoiled rotten recipients of illegal excessive taxations, no longer are able to get the spoils from a collapsed economy. At that point we can have a renewed America, but sadly, not before a whole lot of bloodshed.
Yes, in this we agree. No doubt. I've also pointed out that I am not optimistic in the near term. We really might not make it too much longer without some kind of implosion. The problem with things like this that lead to revolutions is you never know what will follow, so you are correct to point that out as well.
My quibble here is only that there is something sitting out there that is better than what we have. Just because our system eventually rots, doesn't mean it wasn't the best thing going. Putin is no savior for the Russians. He may leave a legacy, but then so do most leaders that hang around awhile. The reality is Putin is grinding to a halt any chance the Russians had to move past totalitarianism and towards individual liberty. There is no good future in that. State/national socialism we know fails. It just doesn't work, so that isn't a realistic option either. A Judeo-Christian strongman might get you a few years, but what happens when he/she dies? With no working democratic institutions in place, what follows will probably be some family member or a person from the ruling elite. With no outlet for the people to make change, they will eventually revolt. And what then? The only answer is what we've seen before, governments led by strongmen, no matter how well intentioned, simply repress their people (even less individual liberty) to quell dissent.
We have a flawed, but amazing Constitution that has served us well. The entire system is fraying and may not last too much longer. But the answer is to build upon what worked and craft/amend the document in such a way to avoid the things that caused the rot from happening again. As I've expressed, in my view a simple start is to specifically write out any role the federal government can have in administering a social welfare state. I'd also reinforce the idea of state sovereignty, among other things. To buy into this though, you have to accept that the process takes time. There is no magic bullet here or great leader that will come along and fix everything.
Coming back to socialism and the social welfare state, I will leave you with this as food for thought. Even a strongman like Chavez will probably NOT be remembered for the mess he made of Venezuela's economy, he will most likely be remembered as the guy who reminded all of central and south America's wanna-be politicians that you simply can't leave a majority (50%+1), non driven/low productive folks though they may be, of people feeling like the society favors "the rich". No matter how fair and reasonable a system you create, only a minority of people seem to take advantage and become the entrepreneurs and business owners. With that in mind, and taking into account human nature, a pure free market system may always result in a disparity that causes the "masses" to revolt, overthrow it, and put in place destructive populist left policies. This is why, though social welfare policies need to be blocked at the federal level, it is important to leave states and localities the ability to enact safety net type policies. Though inefficient, they are the kinds of things that essentially buy off enough of the non producers and prevent the whole system from being destroyed due to envy tied with a lack of ambition of the majority.
Anyway, thanks for the thought provoking posts. Enjoyable discussion indeed.
The Ukraine has only a few thousand actual soldiers of any quality. Otherwise they have a large group of interior police, border gaurds and conscript rabble. Their equipment is mostly trash, and much of what they have can't drive, fly, float or do anything other than make nice targets.
The Russian military is also somewhat of a paper tiger, but it's still much bigger than what the Ukraine has - and more importantly if an actual land battle broke out the Russians would have immediate air dominance and savage any large columns of Ukranian infantry or armor.
If invaded, the Ukranians would have to fight a guerrilla campaign and bleed the Russians till they left. Someone like Stalin would have crushed such a thing, Putin probably doesn't have the luxury of using those sorts of tactics in today's globalized world where pictures and video are almost impossible to stop.
If Russia pushes further into the Ukraine it would probably only be some of the eastern regions of the country. If they actually marched on Kiev, the Ukranians, given time, could make such an occupation very painful. That could be one of the worst mistakes Putin could make. The end result would most likely be devastating for Russia, and an absolute end to the dreams of recreating their empire.
The Russians do not completely have to mobilize their entire army into the Ukraine. Use Spetnaz, gain complete air dominance, and eastern Ukraine is theirs. All could be done in 24 hours.
“It is not nonsense...and dont tell me that our founders did not see a need for revolution, violent if necessary!”
First, let me assure you I fully share all the concerns you expressed in the rest of this post. At times of despair, I often fear that violent actions will be needed to bring about a correction. Then, when not despairing and thinking more rationally, I realize that violence - even considering it - is not the answer. It would just make us the insurgents and give the left and others excuses to further erode the Constitution.
We must not violate the constitution in order to save it. Also, think on the fact that Thomas Jefferson referred to the election of 1800 as the “Revolution of 1800.” It was not mere whimsy he used the word “Revolution.” A major change had occurred with the switch from Adams to Jefferson (I do not take sides on whether the change was good or not!). The point is that Jefferson considered it a “Revolution.” There was NOTHING violent about it, and it was accomplished by constitutional means. So, don’t be so certain that the Founders meant for there to be future bloody overthrows as long as the constitution was being followed. The American Civil War was ultimately due to a breakdown in the COTUS....it was very bloody.
I don't disagree, the Eastern Ukraine is basically theirs for the taking if they want to pursue that option.
While they could do it, there are a lot of downsides. Putin isn't really holding the strong hand he projects. It only looks that way because the US has an idiot for President and the West in general is weak.
Point is..evil, when it is deeply embedded, always takes violence im order to stop its destruction of all that is good and holy. We must not be provoked to that end, but kt only comes as the last resort...exactly what happened im the rebellion against king George. And there was not nearly the evil rampant im the colonies as is happening now.
Russified? Change the “R” to a “P” and you have a perfect description of obama.
it was suggested that Russia be cut off from all banking services (no credit card/paypal/check clearing). I supposed they would just use Serbian Cypriot or Chinese banks.
Sounds like a typical Soviet election not so long ago...