Is Crimea gone? Annexation no longer the focus of Ukraine crisis

CNN ^ | April 1, 2014 | Tom Cohen

[Jim Robinson]

Washington (CNN) -- In diplomacy, like in sales, success often depends on making your adversaries believe they proposed the result you wanted.

By that measure, Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to have closed the sale on annexing Crimea from Ukraine. On Monday, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev visited the region that Moscow now claims over international protests, while Russia also said it was withdrawing a battalion of infantry troops from the tens of thousands deployed near the border with eastern Ukraine.

Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts focus on defusing the immediate threat of armed conflict and setting up a negotiating process, rather than necessarily reversing the Crimean annexation.

~snip~~

As tension climbed, Putin called President Barack Obama last Friday and the two leaders agreed that their top diplomats would try to find an opening for negotiations on resolving the crisis.

In four hours of talks on Sunday in Paris, Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov focused on easing the border tension and working out a formula for a negotiating process that includes the Ukraine government.

Afterward, Kerry told reporters that both governments agreed on the need for a diplomatic solution, and that the goal for now was de-escalating the crisis to allow for further talks.

However, he never directly mentioned Crimea or its annexation and he didn't repeat an earlier U.S. demand that Russian troops leave Crimea.

~snip~~

A variety of outcomes remain possible, ranging from further Russian military incursions in other ethnic-Russian strongholds in the region to a negotiated political agreement in which Ukraine adopts a new constitution and holds new elections -- almost certainly minus Crimea.

[caww]

Kerry’s words from his last meeting with Lavrov show that Crimea already belongs to Russia and not being challenged by US. None of the commentaries after this meeting mentioned Crimea..

So despite the verbal jargon that the annexation of Crimea by Russia won’t be recognized...it’s already been recognized ‘by the US Administration’....it wasn’t the focus of the of the Lavrov-Kerry discussions......neither are the troops on the border.

[caww]

Meanwhile Russia's LUKoil Starts Production At Iraqi Oil Field...Putin's not letting any grass grow under his feet

A ceremony was held at the West Qurna-2 field marking the start of commercial production.........Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister for Energy said he expected output to reach some 100,000 barrels per day by the start of April......plans for production to reach some 420,000 barrels daily by the end of this year.

[spetznaz]

Exactly! This is the unfortunate thing, that the narrative has shifted and moved away from the annexation of the Crimea.

I had written this (part of a longer post) on Monday:

....My view is that Russia will be pulling the South Ossetia/Crimea move every 4-5 years. As it goes stronger, and the US (depending on leadership) weaker, it will move from the 'Georgias' to the 'Ukraines.' It will pick up breakaway regions (Moldova will lose something soon ...although Transnistria is technically lost). The West will do nothing ....much. For example, the talks going on now have assumed Crimea is a part of Russia. That is not under discussion, just that Russia leave Eastern Ukraine.

Sanctions will be lifted in a week, Europe will breath a sigh of relief, Russia will smile, and Kerry and Obama will claim victory. Similar to the Georgia situation ...without Kerry and Obama to smirk. In essence, gain land, get hit with sanctions for a few weeks, threaten escalation, the West has talks to de escalate the situation, Russia agrees, every one is happy and says Russia has withdrawn, and Russia withdraws with the new territory that got ignored during the talks.

If that is losing it is a great thing Russia is not winning.

....America needs stronger leadership, or this will repeat again in 4 years. Only difference is China may also get on that choochoo train.

[no-to-illegals]

Am still wondering if this was an agreement made before obama’s reelection and this was not something obama and his minions wanted to take credit for in giving away Crimea. If was an agreement between obama and putin, prior to the election, wonder how Europe is thinking and if they have actual intelligence of this was going to take place?