I predict Colorado’s little experiment will have consequences they didn’t expect. I imagine we’ll more fully understand where the phrase,”going to pot”, came from after seeing a few years of the effects of legalization.
Or more accurately, did not think through. I am more interested in the economic debate put forward by libertarians which I lean to. One of the predictions of my economic model of legal pot would be that illegal pot would increase in Colorado because the state following tobacco laws, would make pot so expensive people would revert to illegal pot. This was not a difficult economic predictor given that when the state increases taxes on tobacco we see increase in bootlegging cigarettes from other states, Canada and just unstamped packs.
From articles I have read, my prediction has come true that illegal pot and organized crime has increased in Colorado. Obviously, high prices in the legal market have created demand for a lower cost alternative.
But it maybe worse than I predicted. I read that tax revenue is double than anticipated. This would indicate a "win" for the pro-legal crowd that hoped by legalizing pot that at least the state would get taxes. However, this could also mean a win for social conservatives who predicted that legalizing the drug would create more demand. (some of the taxes can be attributed to pot tourism). More demand means greater potential for the black market.
NOTE TO SELF: When in Colorado selling AR and AK 30 round magazines out of the trunk of your car, NEVER EAT the local food. Eat canned food bought in from another state.