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WAVE YEAR? Daily Caller Poll Shows Deep-Blue Oregon Flashing Red
dailycaller.com ^ | 5/2/14 | Will Rahn

Posted on 05/02/2014 6:02:02 AM PDT by cotton1706

Oregon Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley is running neck-and-neck with Republican challenger Monica Wehby, according to a new Daily Caller/Vox Populi Polling survey of registered voters in the state.

Wehby, a Portland-based pediatric neurosurgeon, received the support of 40 percent of respondents, while an additional five percent say they are leaning towards supporting the first-time candidate. Merkley, who was elected to the Senate in 2008, garners the support of just 39 percent of respondents, with two percent saying they lean towards supporting him.

Fourteen percent of voters said they do not know whom they would support.

According to Vox Populi’s Brent Seaborn, the poll shows that “the Senate race in Oregon is very much in play for Republicans.”

The poll also indicates that a plurality of voters in the deep-blue state see Obamacare as a mostly failed venture. Forty-six percent of respondents said Obamacare and Cover Oregon, the state’s disastrously flawed health care exchange, were failures, while 17 percent said they were successes, and 37 percent said they were “somewhere in between.”

(Excerpt) Read more at dailycaller.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Politics/Elections; US: Oregon
KEYWORDS: elections; jeffmerkley; merkley; monicawehby; wehby
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1 posted on 05/02/2014 6:02:02 AM PDT by cotton1706
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To: cotton1706

2014 is shaping up to be a BIG wave midterm election year.


2 posted on 05/02/2014 6:03:51 AM PDT by Biggirl (“Go, do not be afraid, and serve”-Pope Francis)
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To: cotton1706
What is wave supposed to mean? Is this a British term? Is is supposed to mean Landslide? Is it supposed to be a wave by by to the demoRats? Lots of articles loos meaning by being too cute.
3 posted on 05/02/2014 6:05:58 AM PDT by mountainlion (Live well for those that did not make it back.)
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To: cotton1706

serving in the US Senate? Pfft. it’s not exactly brain surgery. And she ought to know.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=THNPmhBl-8I

(you all ought to watch that skit...it is very very funny and clean)


4 posted on 05/02/2014 6:08:29 AM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: mountainlion

They’re just following Rush with the use of the word ‘wave’ to describe the upcoming election.

He first used that term many months ago and was mocked by the media for using it.


5 posted on 05/02/2014 6:11:46 AM PDT by Balding_Eagle (Want to keep your doctor? Remove your Democrat Senator.)
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To: Biggirl

We got pumped up by the media early 2012 only to come up short. 2016 is the GOP’s last stand. 2014 I only hope we make serious gains and inroads.


6 posted on 05/02/2014 6:14:40 AM PDT by Usagi_yo
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To: cotton1706

i am skeptical... seems we get these polls before elections—hope of a blue state turning red—and it never pans out... not even close... New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Minnesota...


7 posted on 05/02/2014 6:15:39 AM PDT by latina4dubya (when i have money i buy books... if i have anything left, i buy 6-inch heels and a bottle of wine...)
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To: mountainlion

It is apparently a common term. NY Times, DailyKos, Stu Rothenberg, Rush, HuffPo, Daily Caller all have used it in various years from at least 2009.


8 posted on 05/02/2014 6:16:14 AM PDT by PghBaldy (12/14 - 930am -rampage begins... 12/15 - 1030am - Obama's advance team scouts photo-op locations.)
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To: cotton1706

Wehby is much more D than R from what I have read here


9 posted on 05/02/2014 6:22:29 AM PDT by GeronL (Vote for Conservatives not for Republicans!)
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To: mountainlion

A landslide is an overwhelming victory in a single race. A wave is general movement that affects a large number of races, typically meaning a case where national issues trump local issues or traditional loyalties.


10 posted on 05/02/2014 6:25:03 AM PDT by kevkrom (I'm not an unreasonable man... well, actually, I am. But hear me out anyway.)
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To: cotton1706
Wehby, a Portland-based pediatric neurosurgeon, received the support of 40 percent of respondents, while an additional five percent say they are leaning towards supporting the first-time candidate. Merkley, who was elected to the Senate in 2008, garners the support of just 39 percent of respondents, with two percent saying they lean towards supporting him.

This makes very little sense. Wehby gets 40% + 5%? Merkley has 39% + 2%? Why not just say 45% and 41%? Is the author poor at math? Or are they implying a strong + 'other' support?

11 posted on 05/02/2014 6:28:54 AM PDT by rjsimmon (The Tree of Liberty Thirsts)
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To: PghBaldy

It’s a poli sci term used after the 1984 Republican landslide which aptly describes what happened then and what is likely to happen again this cycle. The status quo is churned up by a huge wave of anti-ruling party sentiment. The signs are all there that a big wave is coming. Confidence in the current administration has been ebbing.

The economy is still crappy despite the government’s spin otherwise, the Precedent is seen as inept, disengaged, and a liar. His policies are anti-capitalist, anti-American and just another attempt at making the US a socialist utopia. So, rather than have a banana republic revolt, the voters will turn-out in November and figuratively shoot them to get things changed. When the wave crashes ashore the beachscape will have been changed dramatically. And thus the analogy to a wave.

If the wave hasn’t changed much after the election then we may have to act with a series of waves of our individual making.


12 posted on 05/02/2014 6:40:14 AM PDT by CARTOUCHE (I'm an Obamacare truant.)
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To: PghBaldy

Rush is the only one that looks familiar. I did not pick up on his use of the word.

Would Tsunami be the same?


13 posted on 05/02/2014 6:43:48 AM PDT by mountainlion (Live well for those that did not make it back.)
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To: latina4dubya
I agree...for all the talk about Mitch McConnell and how vulnerable he is I read where he is in good shape and should coast to an easy victory. Very frustrating !!!
14 posted on 05/02/2014 6:45:07 AM PDT by ontap
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To: CARTOUCHE
It’s a poli sci term used after the 1984 Republican landslide which aptly describes what happened then and what is likely to happen again this cycle. The status quo is churned up by a huge wave of anti-ruling party sentiment. The signs are all there that a big wave is coming. Confidence in the current administration has been ebbing.

Oregon is 88% white, and they may be coming to the conclusion that the Dems don't really represent their interests anymore.

15 posted on 05/02/2014 6:48:23 AM PDT by PapaBear3625 (You don't notice it's a police state until the police come for you.)
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To: GeronL
Wehby is much more D than R from what I have read here

It's Oregon... anything to the right of Michael Moore is a blessing. Wehby is probably as good as it's going to get for states like that. But.. wait... certainly somewhere there's West Coast version of Christine O'Donnell who can take the nomination by storm (and crash in the general)!

16 posted on 05/02/2014 6:50:46 AM PDT by ScottinVA (Obama is so far in over his head, even his ears are beneath the water level.)
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To: PapaBear3625

I am in Oregon....I will be voting for Wehby...whether that matters or not is to bee seen as voter fraud is what I believe is a big problem..
TRUE THE VOTE found 200+ “voters” registered to a house in Portland
..The house didn’t even have a mailbox


17 posted on 05/02/2014 6:53:45 AM PDT by goodnesswins (R.I.P. Doherty, Smith, Stevens, Woods.)
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To: mountainlion
What is wave supposed to mean?

Tsunami....for those in Rio Vista and Japan Town

18 posted on 05/02/2014 6:55:33 AM PDT by spokeshave (OMG.......Schadenfreude overload is not covered under Obamacare :-()
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To: GeronL

There is a primary battle going on ...lots of mud slinging...Wehby chief competitor voted with Dems many times in legislature...


19 posted on 05/02/2014 6:57:06 AM PDT by goodnesswins (R.I.P. Doherty, Smith, Stevens, Woods.)
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To: goodnesswins
TRUE THE VOTE found 200+ “voters” registered to a house in Portland

..The house didn’t even have a mailbox

Yeah...just like the dims say....they were disadvantaged and couldn't get a photo ID because they don't own a mail box.

20 posted on 05/02/2014 6:58:28 AM PDT by spokeshave (OMG.......Schadenfreude overload is not covered under Obamacare :-()
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To: spokeshave

Rio Vista... LOL!!


21 posted on 05/02/2014 6:59:00 AM PDT by ScottinVA (Obama is so far in over his head, even his ears are beneath the water level.)
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To: rjsimmon
This makes very little sense. Wehby gets 40% + 5%? Merkley has 39% + 2%? Why not just say 45% and 41%? Is the author poor at math? Or are they implying a strong + 'other' support?

It's perfectly valid to exclude "leaners" from the top-line numbers; in other types of reports I'd see it as 40-39 (45-40 with leaners).

22 posted on 05/02/2014 7:00:50 AM PDT by kevkrom (I'm not an unreasonable man... well, actually, I am. But hear me out anyway.)
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To: ConservativeDude

that is good. :)


23 posted on 05/02/2014 7:03:49 AM PDT by Ditter
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FR Needs Donors To Survive

Please Donate!

24 posted on 05/02/2014 7:04:49 AM PDT by DJ MacWoW (The Fed Gov is not one ring to rule them all)
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To: PapaBear3625

As I recall from my travel and readings, Oregon is quite conservative east of the Cascades and outside of the liberal havens of Portland and Corvallis. Unfortunately the area east of the Cascades is sparsely populated and increasingly impotent to battle the liberal influence overall. So, if a wave is coming it may come with disillusioned libs not voting at all or in weak numbers while the rest of the state goes for the better choice of Senate candidates.


25 posted on 05/02/2014 7:07:01 AM PDT by CARTOUCHE (I'm an Obamacare truant.)
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To: cotton1706; Impy

Interesting poll. Someone should comment on the credibility of polls by Daily Caller/Vox Populi.

I am tracking the current Senate projections by our old favorites and here is how they are currently calling the Oregon race:

Sabato: Likely D
Rothenberg:Currently Safe D
Election Projection: Solid Dem Hold
Cook Report: Solid D

That gives the Dems a +94 on my scoring scale. (+100 is a certain HOLD, -100 is a certain FLIP, 0 is a TOSS-UP).

That +94 puts Oregon tied with two others for 16th place in terms of the likelihood that the party in power will lose the election in 2014. That is well down the list and lower than the current expectation/probability/projection by these 4 “experts” that both Mitch McConnell, at 9th, and Saxby Chambliss, at 11th, will lose.

But, if this poll is credible, Oregon is going to be moving up on that list.


26 posted on 05/02/2014 7:09:56 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: CARTOUCHE
So, if a wave is coming it may come with disillusioned libs not voting at all or in weak numbers while the rest of the state goes for the better choice of Senate candidates.

Redistribution of wealth sounds great, up to the point where you realize that it's YOUR wealth which is to be "redistributed". Then it stops looking like fun.

I'm hoping that some of these libs are waking up to that.

27 posted on 05/02/2014 7:16:25 AM PDT by PapaBear3625 (You don't notice it's a police state until the police come for you.)
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To: goodnesswins

Impossible! Rand Paul said there is no voter fraud.


28 posted on 05/02/2014 7:20:14 AM PDT by Beagle8U (Unions are an Affirmative Action program for Slackers! .)
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To: GeronL

“Wehby is much more D than R from what I have read here”

She is. But a moderate woman gets the Establishment all excited (a la Carly Fiorina)

I’m pulling for Jason Conger, but she won’t debate him.


29 posted on 05/02/2014 7:21:50 AM PDT by cotton1706 (ThisRepublic.net)
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To: CARTOUCHE

There are also conservatives in West Portland.
Many of our own FR early tea party people are from there.

Oregon is controlled by unions, liberal press and passive voters


30 posted on 05/02/2014 7:30:11 AM PDT by Zathras
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To: goodnesswins
TRUE THE VOTE found 200+ “voters” registered to a house in Portland
..The house didn’t even have a mailbox


...and Portlandia just continues to write itself.


31 posted on 05/02/2014 7:33:01 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: cotton1706

Even if the GOP contender isn’t as conservative as we would like, this is still a good sign. If nothing else, the Dems will have to spend resources to keep OR.


32 posted on 05/02/2014 7:42:04 AM PDT by cdcdawg (Be seeing you...)
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To: GeronL

You’re right.


33 posted on 05/02/2014 7:54:38 AM PDT by Salvation ("With God all things are possible." Matthew 19:26)
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To: cotton1706

**Jason Conger**

The real conservative.


34 posted on 05/02/2014 7:58:20 AM PDT by Salvation ("With God all things are possible." Matthew 19:26)
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To: cotton1706; goodnesswins; PROCON; Twotone; VeryFRank; Clinging Bitterly; Rio; aimhigh; ...

If you would like more information about what's happening in Oregon, please FReepmail me. I lost my Oregon list when my computer crashed recently, so please send me your name by FReepmail if you were on the previous list.

35 posted on 05/02/2014 8:00:15 AM PDT by Salvation ("With God all things are possible." Matthew 19:26)
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To: InterceptPoint; AuH2ORepublican; yongin; fieldmarshaldj; BillyBoy; Viennacon; cotton1706

Well, Vox Populi is new (so no track record), and they are a GOP firm formed by major players like Cheney’s lesbian daughter.

Here’s an article on them

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/04/gop-polling-firm-vox-populi-polling-mary-cheney-105850.html

Here are the full poll results

http://dailycaller.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Oregon-April-2014-Full-Results.pdf

Interesting that they don’t bother to poll Jason Conger against Merkley. Clearly they are part of the Wehby hype train. Mitt just endorse her.


36 posted on 05/02/2014 8:10:38 AM PDT by Impy (RED=COMMUNIST, NOT REPUBLICAN)
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To: Impy

It may be a small thing but I noticed that the poll questions do not identify the incumbent. Maybe that is standard procedure in polling. Maybe not.


37 posted on 05/02/2014 8:22:10 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: cotton1706

I hope so, but according to similar early polls, Republicans should have won many other senate seats and Pennsylvania in the last two presidential races.


38 posted on 05/02/2014 10:05:40 AM PDT by Will88
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To: Will88

The Dems gerrymandered Oregon in 2000, nullifying most Republican areas. Wehby is a RINO who is not qualified for our legislature.


39 posted on 05/02/2014 10:56:52 AM PDT by aimhigh (1 John 3:23)
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To: cotton1706

Obama has done massive amounts of harm to our country, and the only two good things about these eight terrible years may be the 2010 and 2014 elections. I just pray there will be enough conservatives to keep the GOP on track if we control both the House and the Senate.


40 posted on 05/02/2014 12:48:52 PM PDT by Pollster1 ("Shall not be infringed" is unambiguous.)
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To: cotton1706

Conger is the Conservative and polls higher than Monica. She is being overcoached. Conger can win, Wehby not as likely.

Pray America wakes up


41 posted on 05/02/2014 4:15:44 PM PDT by bray (The Republic of Texas 2022 is here)
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To: goodnesswins

Wehby is the liberal establishment candidate. Conger is the Conservative.


42 posted on 05/02/2014 7:06:49 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Resist We Much)
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To: fieldmarshaldj

And you know that how????


43 posted on 05/02/2014 7:34:24 PM PDT by goodnesswins (R.I.P. Doherty, Smith, Stevens, Woods.)
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To: goodnesswins

You don’t seriously believe Wehby is a Conservative ? She’s a total fake being propped up by the RINO establishment. She has NO chance of winning against Merkley. It is Jason Conger, who has a record of Conservatism in Salem, that is the strongest candidate running who can take back the seat for us.

Take a look at the 10 seats+ we blew in 2012 by running RINO establishment flunkies like Wehby for the Senate. We’d have the majority back today had we run Conservatives instead.

http://www.congerfororegon.com/news/how_jeff_merkley_monica_wehby_and_jason_conger_stack_up_in_fundraising_for_oregons_senate_race

Willard backs fellow liberal Wehby:
http://oregoncatalyst.com/27389-mitt-romney-endorses-dr-monica-wehby.html

Liberal Wehby too scared to defeat Conservative Conger:
http://www.oregonlive.com/opinion/index.ssf/2014/05/wehby_wimps_out_on_televised_d.html

Conger can go toe to toe with Merkley and doesn’t fear debate. If Wehby is too timid to debate her views against Conger, how do you think she’d fare against Merkley ?


44 posted on 05/02/2014 7:44:00 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Resist We Much)
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To: fieldmarshaldj

Answer my question...and you know this HOW???? do you live in Oregon? I live in Oregon....real close to the action...


45 posted on 05/02/2014 8:58:50 PM PDT by goodnesswins (R.I.P. Doherty, Smith, Stevens, Woods.)
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To: goodnesswins; Impy; Clintonfatigued; AuH2ORepublican; BillyBoy

Goodness, what does my residence have to do with anything ? It’s a red herring. I follow ALL of our Senate races and as many other contests as humanly possible across the country, and have been for better than 2 decades. Did you bother to read any of those links I gave you ? For someone who proudly proclaims their living in Oregon “real close to the action”, I would think you’d know which are the liberals running and which aren’t.

So, the big question here is why are YOU supporting the Willard-endorsed liberal RINO in the race, Wehby, and not the Conservative Jason Conger ? Why ?


46 posted on 05/02/2014 9:10:54 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Resist We Much)
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To: fieldmarshaldj

Because....Conger ain’t a Conservative either....sheesh. And, because I believe Wehby can beat Merkley. I live here....I kinda know the landscape. (And, I know you don’t.)


47 posted on 05/02/2014 9:25:21 PM PDT by goodnesswins (R.I.P. Doherty, Smith, Stevens, Woods.)
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To: goodnesswins

He isn’t a Conservative, “either”, huh ? Proof ? Evidence ? Links ? So you are readily admitting that Wehby is the leftist RINO and you’re still voting for her over Conger ? My question to you is why you’re even on a Conservative website when you’re pimping another big gubmint leftist to send to DC ?

BTW, are you being paid by the Wehby campaign to put out disinformation ? I know that’s the standard liberal RINO M.O. on websites such as ours.

You apparently know a lot about Oregon politics... too bad so much of what you know isn’t so.


48 posted on 05/02/2014 9:41:21 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Resist We Much)
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To: goodnesswins; fieldmarshaldj; BillyBoy; AuH2ORepublican; sickoflibs
Answer my question...and you know this HOW???? do you live in Oregon?

HOW? HOW? How could someone know something about something that's happening in a state different from the one in which they live??? Jesus Christ that's a tough one. I'm completely stumped!!!! I think he's got you DJ!!!

49 posted on 05/02/2014 10:12:16 PM PDT by Impy (RED=COMMUNIST, NOT REPUBLICAN)
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To: Impy

It’s a she. What’s a shame is she seems so sensible in other threads. Alas, when it comes to this race, completely reactionary, hysterical, delusional and in total denial.


50 posted on 05/02/2014 10:16:04 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Resist We Much)
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