Skip to comments.WAVE YEAR? Daily Caller Poll Shows Deep-Blue Oregon Flashing Red
Posted on 05/02/2014 6:02:02 AM PDT by cotton1706
Oregon Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley is running neck-and-neck with Republican challenger Monica Wehby, according to a new Daily Caller/Vox Populi Polling survey of registered voters in the state.
Wehby, a Portland-based pediatric neurosurgeon, received the support of 40 percent of respondents, while an additional five percent say they are leaning towards supporting the first-time candidate. Merkley, who was elected to the Senate in 2008, garners the support of just 39 percent of respondents, with two percent saying they lean towards supporting him.
Fourteen percent of voters said they do not know whom they would support.
According to Vox Populis Brent Seaborn, the poll shows that the Senate race in Oregon is very much in play for Republicans.
The poll also indicates that a plurality of voters in the deep-blue state see Obamacare as a mostly failed venture. Forty-six percent of respondents said Obamacare and Cover Oregon, the states disastrously flawed health care exchange, were failures, while 17 percent said they were successes, and 37 percent said they were somewhere in between.
(Excerpt) Read more at dailycaller.com ...
2014 is shaping up to be a BIG wave midterm election year.
serving in the US Senate? Pfft. it’s not exactly brain surgery. And she ought to know.....
(you all ought to watch that skit...it is very very funny and clean)
They’re just following Rush with the use of the word ‘wave’ to describe the upcoming election.
He first used that term many months ago and was mocked by the media for using it.
We got pumped up by the media early 2012 only to come up short. 2016 is the GOP’s last stand. 2014 I only hope we make serious gains and inroads.
i am skeptical... seems we get these polls before elections—hope of a blue state turning red—and it never pans out... not even close... New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Minnesota...
It is apparently a common term. NY Times, DailyKos, Stu Rothenberg, Rush, HuffPo, Daily Caller all have used it in various years from at least 2009.
Wehby is much more D than R from what I have read here
A landslide is an overwhelming victory in a single race. A wave is general movement that affects a large number of races, typically meaning a case where national issues trump local issues or traditional loyalties.
This makes very little sense. Wehby gets 40% + 5%? Merkley has 39% + 2%? Why not just say 45% and 41%? Is the author poor at math? Or are they implying a strong + 'other' support?
It’s a poli sci term used after the 1984 Republican landslide which aptly describes what happened then and what is likely to happen again this cycle. The status quo is churned up by a huge wave of anti-ruling party sentiment. The signs are all there that a big wave is coming. Confidence in the current administration has been ebbing.
The economy is still crappy despite the government’s spin otherwise, the Precedent is seen as inept, disengaged, and a liar. His policies are anti-capitalist, anti-American and just another attempt at making the US a socialist utopia. So, rather than have a banana republic revolt, the voters will turn-out in November and figuratively shoot them to get things changed. When the wave crashes ashore the beachscape will have been changed dramatically. And thus the analogy to a wave.
If the wave hasn’t changed much after the election then we may have to act with a series of waves of our individual making.
Rush is the only one that looks familiar. I did not pick up on his use of the word.
Would Tsunami be the same?
Oregon is 88% white, and they may be coming to the conclusion that the Dems don't really represent their interests anymore.
It's Oregon... anything to the right of Michael Moore is a blessing. Wehby is probably as good as it's going to get for states like that. But.. wait... certainly somewhere there's West Coast version of Christine O'Donnell who can take the nomination by storm (and crash in the general)!
I am in Oregon....I will be voting for Wehby...whether that matters or not is to bee seen as voter fraud is what I believe is a big problem..
TRUE THE VOTE found 200+ “voters” registered to a house in Portland
..The house didn’t even have a mailbox
Tsunami....for those in Rio Vista and Japan Town
There is a primary battle going on ...lots of mud slinging...Wehby chief competitor voted with Dems many times in legislature...
..The house didnt even have a mailbox
Yeah...just like the dims say....they were disadvantaged and couldn't get a photo ID because they don't own a mail box.
Rio Vista... LOL!!
It's perfectly valid to exclude "leaners" from the top-line numbers; in other types of reports I'd see it as 40-39 (45-40 with leaners).
that is good. :)
As I recall from my travel and readings, Oregon is quite conservative east of the Cascades and outside of the liberal havens of Portland and Corvallis. Unfortunately the area east of the Cascades is sparsely populated and increasingly impotent to battle the liberal influence overall. So, if a wave is coming it may come with disillusioned libs not voting at all or in weak numbers while the rest of the state goes for the better choice of Senate candidates.
Interesting poll. Someone should comment on the credibility of polls by Daily Caller/Vox Populi.
I am tracking the current Senate projections by our old favorites and here is how they are currently calling the Oregon race:
Sabato: Likely D
Rothenberg:Currently Safe D
Election Projection: Solid Dem Hold
Cook Report: Solid D
That gives the Dems a +94 on my scoring scale. (+100 is a certain HOLD, -100 is a certain FLIP, 0 is a TOSS-UP).
That +94 puts Oregon tied with two others for 16th place in terms of the likelihood that the party in power will lose the election in 2014. That is well down the list and lower than the current expectation/probability/projection by these 4 “experts” that both Mitch McConnell, at 9th, and Saxby Chambliss, at 11th, will lose.
But, if this poll is credible, Oregon is going to be moving up on that list.
Redistribution of wealth sounds great, up to the point where you realize that it's YOUR wealth which is to be "redistributed". Then it stops looking like fun.
I'm hoping that some of these libs are waking up to that.
Impossible! Rand Paul said there is no voter fraud.
“Wehby is much more D than R from what I have read here”
She is. But a moderate woman gets the Establishment all excited (a la Carly Fiorina)
I’m pulling for Jason Conger, but she won’t debate him.
There are also conservatives in West Portland.
Many of our own FR early tea party people are from there.
Oregon is controlled by unions, liberal press and passive voters
Even if the GOP contender isn’t as conservative as we would like, this is still a good sign. If nothing else, the Dems will have to spend resources to keep OR.
The real conservative.
If you would like more information about what's happening in Oregon, please FReepmail me. I lost my Oregon list when my computer crashed recently, so please send me your name by FReepmail if you were on the previous list.
Well, Vox Populi is new (so no track record), and they are a GOP firm formed by major players like Cheney’s lesbian daughter.
Here’s an article on them
Here are the full poll results
Interesting that they don’t bother to poll Jason Conger against Merkley. Clearly they are part of the Wehby hype train. Mitt just endorse her.
It may be a small thing but I noticed that the poll questions do not identify the incumbent. Maybe that is standard procedure in polling. Maybe not.
I hope so, but according to similar early polls, Republicans should have won many other senate seats and Pennsylvania in the last two presidential races.
The Dems gerrymandered Oregon in 2000, nullifying most Republican areas. Wehby is a RINO who is not qualified for our legislature.
Obama has done massive amounts of harm to our country, and the only two good things about these eight terrible years may be the 2010 and 2014 elections. I just pray there will be enough conservatives to keep the GOP on track if we control both the House and the Senate.
Conger is the Conservative and polls higher than Monica. She is being overcoached. Conger can win, Wehby not as likely.
Pray America wakes up
Wehby is the liberal establishment candidate. Conger is the Conservative.
And you know that how????
You don’t seriously believe Wehby is a Conservative ? She’s a total fake being propped up by the RINO establishment. She has NO chance of winning against Merkley. It is Jason Conger, who has a record of Conservatism in Salem, that is the strongest candidate running who can take back the seat for us.
Take a look at the 10 seats+ we blew in 2012 by running RINO establishment flunkies like Wehby for the Senate. We’d have the majority back today had we run Conservatives instead.
Willard backs fellow liberal Wehby:
Liberal Wehby too scared to defeat Conservative Conger:
Conger can go toe to toe with Merkley and doesn’t fear debate. If Wehby is too timid to debate her views against Conger, how do you think she’d fare against Merkley ?
Answer my question...and you know this HOW???? do you live in Oregon? I live in Oregon....real close to the action...
Goodness, what does my residence have to do with anything ? It’s a red herring. I follow ALL of our Senate races and as many other contests as humanly possible across the country, and have been for better than 2 decades. Did you bother to read any of those links I gave you ? For someone who proudly proclaims their living in Oregon “real close to the action”, I would think you’d know which are the liberals running and which aren’t.
So, the big question here is why are YOU supporting the Willard-endorsed liberal RINO in the race, Wehby, and not the Conservative Jason Conger ? Why ?
Because....Conger ain’t a Conservative either....sheesh. And, because I believe Wehby can beat Merkley. I live here....I kinda know the landscape. (And, I know you don’t.)
He isn’t a Conservative, “either”, huh ? Proof ? Evidence ? Links ? So you are readily admitting that Wehby is the leftist RINO and you’re still voting for her over Conger ? My question to you is why you’re even on a Conservative website when you’re pimping another big gubmint leftist to send to DC ?
BTW, are you being paid by the Wehby campaign to put out disinformation ? I know that’s the standard liberal RINO M.O. on websites such as ours.
You apparently know a lot about Oregon politics... too bad so much of what you know isn’t so.
HOW? HOW? How could someone know something about something that's happening in a state different from the one in which they live??? Jesus Christ that's a tough one. I'm completely stumped!!!! I think he's got you DJ!!!
It’s a she. What’s a shame is she seems so sensible in other threads. Alas, when it comes to this race, completely reactionary, hysterical, delusional and in total denial.