Russia no longer needs to invade Ukraine, analysts say

Washington Post ^ | May 12, 2014 | Simon Denyer, Michael Birnbaum and Fredrick Kunkle

[BurningOak]

DONETSK, Ukraine — Separatists in eastern Ukraine proclaimed the birth of two new “sovereign” republics Monday after asserting victory in controversial self-rule referendums, and one of the regions promptly asked to join Russia.

Leaders of the self-declared Donetsk People’s Republic also demanded that Ukrainian security forces leave the separatists’ territory.

The statements represented a hardening of positions that could drag Ukraine closer to all-out civil war and is likely to intensify tensions between Russia and the West.

“Based on the will of the people and on the restoration of a historic justice, we ask the Russian Federation to consider the absorption of the Donetsk People’s Republic into the Russian Federation,” Denis Pushilin, a separatist leader, said at a news conference.

[BurningOak]

Seems like the bad guys win as usual. Russian rebels in Ukraine are heavily armed (shot down several Ukraine helicopters) and are able to hold ground against the national guard. They seem very well trained and organized. Local authorities in East Ukraine have either collapsed or changed sides. The only way Kiev can dislodge the rebels is with a full military assault with tanks and air power ala what we did in Fallujah. But the rebels are hiding behind civilian crowds, and such an operation will mean a massive blood bath followed by a full scale Russian invasion.

Looks like Putin wins again without a shot fired. Not good.

[trisham]

"The secret to happiness is freedom...
And the secret to freedom is courage."

~Thucydides

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[GeronL]

They will eventually, after another fraudulent referendum or two

[1rudeboy]

Yup. Witness the reactions even on FR:

military does nothing-->"they are wimps and unworthy of our support"
military does something-->"they are Nazis unworthy of our support"

Putin won this PR battle.

[tcrlaf]

At this point, a simple Obama-Style “No-Fly Zone” would be enough to secure the Southwest, I believe.

The Kiev coup government can’t field much, at all, at this point. Despite everything, they only have around 1,000-1,200 troops in the south, and much of that is the Right Sector National Guard.

A Dnipropetrovsk-based pro-Kiev militia group has sprung up, likely financed by the Billionaire mayor, but other than killing a couple of unarmed voters, they are just local goons.

[BurningOak]

“Putin won this PR battle.”

I think he won the war of words by winning the actual war. It is easy to win a propaganda war after you won the battle.

[dfwgator]

He won by default.

[1rudeboy]

At this point, a simple Obama-Style “No-Fly Zone” would be enough to secure the Southwest, I believe.

Come off it. What sort of aircraft are the pro-Russian separatists flying? Listen to yourself.

[lodi90]

“Civilians” in a combat zone by free choice are combatants. This is unlawful warfare. Plain and simple. UKR has chosen not to shoot the human shields for armed gunmen. If they killed like Putin does hundreds would already be dead. Apparently it’s ok for Putin to kill to get what he wants but Ukraine must never be allowed to defend themselves.

[ghost of stonewall jackson]

“Russian rebels in Ukraine are heavily armed”

probably because they are Russian army in civvies

[lodi90]

Ukrainian people are very organized in the Odesa area. They aren’t waiting around for the govt to save them. Putin will need an direct invasion to take them.

[tcrlaf]

Did ever say they were flying anything?
I meant a Russian No-fly zone.

[1rudeboy]

Ah, I misunderstood. I forgot that you speak from the Russian perspective.

[Forward the Light Brigade]

Putin has time on his side—he will take these lands without firing a shot. Brains wins over brawn this time. Kiev was foolish to think Obama or the EU would help them. The game isn’t over but it looks like Putin’s Rook just took Kiev’s Bishop. We are approaching the end game now and Russia is ahead on points.

[gingerbread]

They’ve already gotten the part of UKRAINE that they wanted. Why even discuss it any more. This is what Hitler did in Czekoslavakia in the 30’s. The rest of the Ukraine will fall on their lap soon enough. They have no where to go.

[tet68]

So the Ukrainian industrial base is absorbed by Russia,
while ours has been dismantled by enviros and shipped
to China. It does not bode well for Ukraine or us.
Agrarian societies cannot stand up to superior technology.

[nitzy]

That is weird.

It is almost like Russia had a plan and contingency plans for what the opposition would do. As crazy as it sounds, it almost seems as if maybe they had career members of their military who war gamed this exact scenario so that it would unfold the way it did.

Too bad our military is wrapped up in making sure muslims and homosexuals feel comfortable.

[rbmillerjr]

Russia is not recognizing the referendum shams held by the subversives.

They can either surrender their weapons or not vote in the Elections. Their choice. They’ve lost their leverage.

Ukraine will elect a President that leans to the West and EU.

Russia has no options outside of invasion.

[SunkenCiv]

Russia never “needed” to invade Ukraine in the first place. Washington Compost headline, kinda figures. Thanks BurningOak.