US Economy Poised to Accelerate? Bond Market in Disbelief

Townhall.com ^ | May 28, 2014 | Mike Shedlock

[Kaslin]

The US treasury market is not in sync with the widely held belief the economy is growing stronger. A single chart clearly shows what I mean.

Yield Curve as of 2014-05-26



click on chart for sharper image

The above chart shows end-of-month closing values except for the current month which is up-to-date.

Legend

• $TYX: 30-Year in green
• $TNX: 10-Year in orange
• $FVX: 05-Year in blue
• $IRX: 03-Month in brown

If the US economy was really strengthening, the long end of the yield curve ought to be rising strongly.

So why isn't it?

My take is the economy is poised to decelerate, not take off as most seem to think.

[unixfox]

It will accelerate. Just in time for the elections. By 2016 it will be reported(as a lie) that the economy is growing rapidly and that unemployment is below 5%.

And that will be the reason to vote for ANOTHER MARXIST named Hillary Rotten Xlinton.

[Jack Hydrazine]

How many times has Obama and the collectivist talking heads said that the economy was going to take off?

[2ndDivisionVet]

We’ve been hearing about this recovery for six years now. Other than here in Texas and the DC suburbs, t’ain’t so.

[eyedigress]

I think the economy did take off. Off course nobody can find it and it hasn’t been seen for years.

[stevem]

When you have the labor force shrinking by the day, 22% food inflation, the Federal Government declaring war on American citizens, gasoline remaining high and the Balloon Head in Chief touting the recovery, it's time to don camouflage and look for some serious cover.

[Lorianne]

heh

I think they are confusing taking off with r-u-n-n-o-f-t

[Vendome]

My sense is it will decelerate and come 4th quarter customers will start putting off decisions and increasing the sales cycle.

[Jack Hydrazine]

Kind of like MH370?

[Salvation]

Or crash?

[Moonman62]

Summer of Recovery 6.0

[The Antiyuppie]

“How many times has Obama and the collectivist talking heads said that the economy was going to take off?”

Oh, I absolutely believe that it will take off.

[Cringing Negativism Network]

US imports everything.

Our economy is shrinking.

We are not growing. Wake up people, we need to make things right here.

[Iron Munro]

Getting ready for another big party while living on borrowed money.

What could go wrong?

[1010RD]

Imports are a sign of economic strength. People take our dollars and give us actual physical goods in exchange.

Did you read those articles or watch those videos about comparative and absolute advantage I pinged you?

Do you understand that trade “deficits” are an invention of crony capitalists and don’t exist?

[ExCTCitizen]

The US economy will take off... I believe it...

In 2017 after President Cruz and a tea party led Senate and House cut taxes, spending and the Department of Education, HHS and Energy get defunding.

[Cringing Negativism Network]

I’m not sure whether I have linked to your posts. I have read plenty of posts.

Can you please re-link them?

Thanks. I disagree with you however. I think it is a sign of economic strength to make stuff. Not to buy stuff.

So that will be interesting, with our opposite views of things, how the articles will seem to me. :D

[Jim from C-Town]

Honest to God, I have no idea how the economy hasn't imploded already. I have expected the wheels to come off for the last three years. The fundamentals ,are not good. High real unemployment, high debt, and anemic or nonexistent growth just for starters. It is all held up by massive government bond buying.

But, I may be wrong. I have been so far.

[BipolarBob]

You can’t have a bust without first having a boom. When it does come, it will be bad.

[DAC21]

Another opp. to refinance if you haven’t done so already.